Massachusetts 2026 Poll: Sen. Markey Starts with Narrow Lead Over Rep. Moulton in Primary
Voters Support Rent Control, Income Tax Limit Potential Ballot Initiatives
A brand new Emerson College Polling Massachusetts survey finds Democratic Senator Ed Markey beginning his re-election bid with a five-point lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Seth Moulton, main 37% to 32%, with 29% of voters undecided.
“Senator Markey leads the Democratic primary by 13 points among registered Democrats, while Rep. Moulton holds a 38% to 32% edge among unrolled voters,” stated Spencer Kimball, govt director of Emerson College Polling. “Markey leads women 37% to 29%, while men are essentially split, with 38% backing Moulton and 37% Markey.”
Voters underneath 50 break for Senator Markey by seven factors, 33% to 26%, whereas voters over 50 are break up: 40% help Markey and 38% help Moulton.
“Notably, groups that are more favorable toward Markey, including women and young voters, are also more undecided than their counterparts; women are ten points more undecided than men (33% to 23%), and 39% of voters under 50 are undecided compared to 21% of voters over 50,” Kimball added.
Senator Markey holds a 37% favorable ranking amongst Massachusetts voters and 35% unfavorable ranking. Twenty-three % are impartial. Among Democratic Primary voters, 60% have a good view of the Senate and 12% unfavorable. Rep. Moulton holds a 31% favorable ranking and 26% unfavorable. Thirty % are impartial. Among Democratic main voters, 49% have a good view of Moulton and 11% unfavorable.
Gov. Maura Healey has a forty five% favorable ranking amongst Massachusetts voters, whereas 35% have an unfavorable view of Healey; 17% are impartial. Senator Elizabeth Warren has a 48% favorable statewide ranking, and 35% unfavorable; 14% are impartial. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu holds a forty five% favorable ranking, and 34% unfavorable; 16% are impartial.
The survey requested voters how they might vote on potential poll measures this November.
A majority (62%) would vote sure on a poll measure to lower the state earnings tax charge from 5% to 4% by 2029, whereas 19% would vote no, and 20% should not positive.
A majority (60%) would additionally vote sure on a poll measure to restrict annual lease improve in Massachusetts to not more than 5%, whereas 26% would vote no. Fourteen % should not positive.
Half (50%) of voters would vote sure to vary the present celebration main system to all-party primaries, in which all candidates can be listed on the poll no matter celebration, and the highest two vote getters would advance to the final election; 29% would vote no, and 21% should not positive.
Fifteen % are very in the upcoming World Cup video games in the Boston space, 35% are considerably , and 49% should not in any respect.
Voters underneath 50 are most engaged at 23% very excited, in comparison with 10% of voters over 50 who say the identical.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Massachusetts survey was performed May 3-4 2026. The general pattern of Massachusetts voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, much like a ballot’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 %. The pattern of doubtless Democratic Primary voters features a pattern dimension of n=451 with a credibility interval of +/- 4.5%. The information units have been weighted by gender, schooling, race, age, celebration registration, and area primarily based on US Census parameters and voter file information.
It is necessary to do not forget that subsets primarily based on demographics, similar to gender, age, schooling, and race/ethnicity, carry with them greater credibility intervals, because the pattern dimension is decreased. Survey outcomes needs to be understood inside the ballot’s vary of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a ballot will fall exterior the vary of scores 1 in 20 instances.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file supplied by Aristotle utilizing MMS text-to-web; a probability-based panel of voters supplied by Consensus Strategies utilizing MMS text-to-web; and extra panel interviews supplied by PureSpectrum. All respondents have been recruited utilizing personalized hyperlinks that stop responses from anybody exterior the ballot’s pattern body. Panel responses have been matched to the Aristotle voter file utilizing respondents’ full identify and ZIP code. The survey was administered utilizing QuestionPro, and the survey was supplied in English.
All questions requested in this survey with precise wording and order, alongside with full outcomes, demographics, and cross tabulations might be discovered beneath.
