It’s a two-point Premier League title race. But can this Manchester City do to Manchester City?

Having discovered nothing from crowning Arsenal champions in January, the soccer public now expects Manchester City to win the Premier League title this season.

It is comprehensible, after all. There is a unusual want to name these items months and months upfront, assuming that the whole lot else will play out precisely just like the final outcome did, after which you’ve got current historical past. In this case, the truth that Arsenal have let leads on the prime of the desk slip, and that City at all times ‘go on a run’.

So City’s battling 2-1 victory in opposition to Newcastle United felt like a large night time within the title race, earlier than Sunday’s north London derby, given Arsenal’s current slip-ups and the momentum that City have put collectively from their dramatic win at Anfield three weeks in the past.

Pep Guardiola, although, will not be so certain. “I promise you, I’m honest with you, many things are going to happen!” he mentioned after the match. “I have the feeling we are not going to win all the games, I don’t know about Arsenal. I have the feeling we are not going to win all the games, this is my feeling.”

It is pure for folks to count on City to go on a run as a result of that’s what City do. Even final season, after they primarily forgot how to play soccer in the course of the winter, they put issues again collectively properly sufficient to see them comfortably into the highest 4 and certainly the FA Cup last.

In the earlier 4 seasons they went on runs to win the title, each single 12 months. In 2023 and 2024, they overhauled Arsenal thanks to streaks of wins within the spring. The 12 months earlier than they did it to Liverpool, a race that went to the ultimate day. The 12 months earlier than that they gained 24 video games in a row in all competitions.

At the danger of laboring the purpose, in 2019 they gained all of their last 14 league matches to pip Liverpool, once more on the ultimate day. The season earlier than that they’d gained 18 video games in a row, setting a new Premier League document. That was within the first a part of the season, however it’s honest to say that, irrespective of when it occurs, City is aware of how to ‘go on a run’.

however do this City?

“When we have 60 or 70 per cent new players, we don’t have what we had in the past,” Guardiola mentioned lower than a fortnight in the past. “After the second or third season we had done it, we were able to do it, but now we have to prove it. I don’t know if we are able to win three, four, five, six games in a row. I don’t know. I don’t know.”

The narrative was barely completely different then — City have been nonetheless solid as unlikely challengers and we have been all unsure whether or not this new group would have the trick to go all the best way. Now, due to Arsenal’s faltering type and the rising proof that City are beginning to click on, the idea is that issues will play out precisely just like the outdated days.

Speaking to TNT Sports after the Newcastle sport, Guardiola returned to the theme when requested if he feels the group is provided for the title race. “Seventy per cent of the gamers by no means performed in that state of affairs and I do not play in order that they have to stay it.

“They know and we know that every game until the rest of the season will be like this, especially at home.”

How each title challengers are seen has modified fully within the house of a few weeks, however City’s state of affairs stays true — they’re a new and younger group in transition, and that was evident even on Saturday, as they struggled to kill off Newcastle like they might have executed prior to now, by conserving the ball. Had they taken their probabilities issues would have been a lot calmer, however that’s one thing they’ve struggled to do in second halves to date in 2026, making their issues in possession extra worrying.

And it actually must be careworn, whether or not we’re doubting City or predicting one other title, that this is a very new group certainly, the place the gamers who’ve steered City via earlier title challenges expertly at the moment are within the minority.

Ederson, Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji, Ilkay Gundogan, Jack Grealish and Kevin De Bruyne have all left because the begin of final 12 months, representing a fairly vital ‘mind drain’. City’s squad now consists of 11 senior gamers who’ve signed since January 2025, whereas Matheus Nunes has transformed to right-back in that point and Nico O’Reilly has emerged from the academy as a left-back (and is now thriving in a extra pure midfield function).

There are 10 gamers within the squad who’ve gained main trophies with City earlier than, and 4 of them are within the captaincy group: Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias, and Erling Haaland have been particularly chosen by Guardiola as captains final summer season, representing a change in strategy given the supervisor had at all times left it up to a vote in earlier years.

Phil Foden, Josko Gvardiol, Rico Lewis, Nathan Ake, John Stones and Mateo Kovacic make up the remaining, though their affect varies wildly this season — Kovacic has not performed in any respect, for instance, with Stones affected by damage setbacks and Lewis and Ake in back-up roles.

So it’s a very new squad and additionally it is younger. In the darkish days of final season, Guardiola remarked on how City have been “an old team”, citing De Bruyne, Gundogan and Kovacic. Within a month he had fielded a way more rejuvenated facet; the group that misplaced 2-0 to Liverpool final February was, at that time, the joint-youngest XI of Guardiola’s tenure, at 25 years and 68 days.

He reverted to the outdated heads within the run-in as City prioritized sterile management to recover from the road, however that was a momentary measure and following a summer season rebuild, City fielded a fair youthful beginning XI within the away defeat at Brighton on the very begin of this season, 24 years and 326 days. Having added barely extra expertise in January — Antoine Semenyo is 26, Marc Guehi 25 — the common age of the entire squad is now 25 years outdated, the fourth youngest within the league.

Guardiola expects City is not going to win each sport (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

“They have done really good things, I have that feeling for many many months,” Guardiola mentioned in the identical press convention the place he admitted he’s not certain if the group can win a number of matches in a row, “but (we are) not consistent enough to control many aspects to win the games.”

That, apparently, is the primary motive why he can’t be so certain that this facet has what it takes to comply with its predecessors. The major particular soccer motive, for Guardiola, appears to be their incapacity to play properly in second halves, which he places down to issues taking part in out from the again.

“We don’t have time to train, first, and because there are 70 per cent new players,” he mentioned, explaining why that’s.

Again, that was evident in opposition to Newcastle and though City dug in to get the outcome — with Gianluigi Donnarumma making his necessary clear with one other very important save — it does counsel that lengthy successful runs shall be more durable to come by if they can not hold opponents at arm’s size by stringing some passes collectively.

On Friday, Guardiola nonetheless appeared uncertain about how a lot the affect of City’s confirmed winners can have on their new team-mates.

“The experience maybe can help, but I don’t know, on the pitch, how the new ones are going to react,” he mentioned on Friday.

Later, I’ve revisited the theme. “I’ve said many times, when you (win) Premier Leagues and Champions Leagues, you don’t win 5-0 every weekend. No, this is a fairytale, it’s fine, but all the people are like, ‘how good was Man City’? When Man City was good, we won a lot of games, 1-0, 0-1, playing rubbish, playing not good. But the personality was there, how we handled those moments, how we dealt with that, it comes from them, and “that’s why we had success.”

With Arsenal setting the pace this season, it looked as though City wouldn’t have time to gel quickly enough to win another title this season, but the Gunners’ struggles have opened the door.

“Perfect game? No. Ideal game? No,” that was Guardiola’s take on their victory over Newcastle. “But we have been a group. A group we have now to be.”

It could also be that City do win the title, and it could be that the outdated DNA kicks in and so they truly do win most of, if not all, of their remaining video games. But this is a very completely different facet and there are probably to be loads extra twists and turns earlier than the season is out.