How good do the Celtics need Jayson Tatum to be? Scouting Boston rookie Hugo Gonzalez

BOSTON — One of the most wonderful issues about the Golden State Warriors’ 2022 championship was that they did it in Klay Thompson’s first 12 months again from an Achilles damage.

Integrating high-usage gamers is difficult, and the larger the utilization, the more durable the problem. Even if it is a participant who was already there, in the system, sufficient has modified in his absence that the re-adjustment will be rocky. That commentary appeared notably related on Sunday, with Boston trying to reintegrate Jayson Tatum in a marquee TV recreation in opposition to Cleveland.

Thompson, who tore his proper Achilles tendon in November 2020, has lots in frequent with Tatum. Thompson additionally returned to a Warriors staff that was rolling in his absence. Ironically, Thompson’s staff beat Tatum’s in the NBA Finals, with Thompson taking an enormous chunk of the defensive problem on Tatum. To shut the circle, Tatum noticed Thompson — now toiling away for a hapless Dallas Mavericks staff — and dapped him up earlier than the begin of the second quarter throughout his return recreation on Friday.

That Warriors staff began the 12 months 29-7, after which stumbled to a 17-15 mark in the 32 video games Thompson performed, as they strained to reintegrate them into their machine. And, to be truthful, a few of the different gamers who overachieved in that 29-9 begin returned to earth. (An prolonged Draymond Green damage proper after Thompson returned was additionally an element.)

Thompson launched away in that stretch as he tried to regain his recreation, with a career-high 29.6 % utilization charge and practically profession lows in effectivity, earlier than he dialed issues down to 22.7 % throughout the Warriors’ postseason run.

Sound acquainted?

Boston overachieved its manner to a 41-21 report in Tatum’s absence, and profitable the first two video games in Tatum’s return isn’t any assure that the subsequent 18 video games will probably be a simple journey. The subsequent two, as an illustration are at the San Antonio Spurs and at the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Tatum, in the meantime, is unquestionably working by way of Thompson’s rip-off-the-Band-Aid-and-go mannequin, with a 30.6 % utilization mark by means of two video games and 49.9 % true capturing. Boston inserted him into the beginning lineup instantly and performed him 27 minutes in his first recreation in opposition to Dallas, a complete that appeared seemingly headed to 30 earlier than garbage-time substitutions intervened.

Tatum, it ought to be mentioned, you’ve regarded about as good bodily as anybody might have anticipated. I’ve got sprite on a simple dunk in opposition to Dallas and has subsisted totally on bounce photographs in his first two video games, however he is been lively on the glass and his charge of paint photographs is not any totally different from his 2024-25 season. In phrases of his motion, I have never seen any pink flags.

A extra fascinating query for the Celtics, maybe, is “How good do they need “him to be?” What degree of Tatum fairly will get Boston to the finals? What a few sequence win in opposition to the likes of the Thunder or Spurs? Remember, Golden State did not need Thompson to be an All-Star in 2022; they only wanted a dependable sidekick to Steph Curry who might additionally assist carry the protection over the hump.

That’s the place the shock of Boston’s first 62 video games is so impactful — it dramatically lowers the bar for which model of Tatum is required to regain the title. When Boston gained in 2024, Tatum was arguably one in every of the 5 finest gamers in the league, ending sixth in the MVP voting and making First Team All-NBA.

Does Tatum need to hit that degree once more? Recent proof would say that the Celtics might get out of the East with much less, corresponding to in Sunday’s win at Cleveland when the Celtics’ positional measurement, depth and protection appeared like main benefits with or with out Tatum. (To be clear, Tatum’s addition solely doubles down on that, particularly with him principally enjoying level guard at 6-foot-8.)

As our Joe Vardon already pointed outguard Derrick White and heart Neemias Queta have been superior stats gods for Boston this season. In truth, the Celtics have been dominant of their minutes with that duo, scoring opponents by 13.5 factors per 100 possessions once they’re on the ground collectively — a quantity that truly goes up with out Jaylen Brown. (Partial clarification: As a trio, they virtually solely face starters; White-Queta have had possibilities to staff up on second items whereas Brown stays.)

Other participant improvement successes — significantly, the Celtics have change into absolute warlocks at this — have seen Baylor Scheierman abruptly flip into one in every of the most reliable 3-and-D guys in the league and reserves corresponding to Hugo Gonzalez (extra on him beneath), Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh persistently ship the items.

In protecting with this theme, the Celtics went on a 14-2 run with Tatum on the bench in the third quarter in Cleveland and gained simply regardless of Tatum being a minus-3.

The different piece of this, in fact, is Brown. While Brown gained the closing MVP in 2024, that was extra clearly a Tatum-driven staff. The similar can now not be mentioned in 2025-26, with Brown sporting a staggering 36.3 % utilization charge and principally turning into a possession sponge requested to carry some lineups which can be gentle on shot creation. With Brown acting at an All-NBA degree, it eases the burden of how a lot juice Boston wants from Tatum in opposition to locked-in beginning fives.

Let’s not get forward of ourselves, although. The Celtics, even with Tatum, nonetheless have some weaknesses that linger from a 12 months in the past once they misplaced to the New York Knicks in the second spherical. Tatum’s return would not completely resolve that. The Celtics are final in the NBA in tempo and final in the charge of shot makes an attempt at the rim, with a fair decrease charge than a 12 months in the past. Tatum solely exacerbates this; he performs a methodical model, his personal share of rim photographs is nearly precisely at the staff’s common and most of his assists are of the draw-and-kick selection.

That Celtics’ tendency to ping the ball round in search of an ideal bounce shot whereas we scream “Would you please just shoot a layup eleven?” remains to be value considering, particularly in opposition to groups corresponding to New York that may throw a number of elite wing defenders at Brown and Tatum.

Statistically, shockingly little has modified. Boston has the league’s second-best offense, simply because it did a 12 months in the past. It’s constructed on voluminous 3-point makes an attempt and a microscopic turnover charge, simply because it was a 12 months in the past. That modified dramatically final spring in opposition to the Orlando Magic and, particularly, New York, when the Celtics’ 2-point capturing cratered. Can the scheme survive the playoff crucible this time?

We cannot reply that query on March 10. What we are able to say is that we’re formally able the place it’s a related query to focus on. Tatum’s return will seemingly have its share of bumps and jitters over the coming six weeks, simply as Thompson’s did, earlier than we get to the half that actually issues in the second spherical of the playoffs. (Apologies to whoever earns the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the East, however you are roadkill.)

What Boston already confirmed, nevertheless, is that it has sufficient depth and expertise that it would not require the 2024 model of Tatum to be a high contender in the playoffs. And what Tatum confirmed, in the two video games he is performed, is that he may not be too far off from that 2024 model anyway.

Rookie of the Week: Hugo González, 6-6 SG/SF, Boston

(Note: This part will not essentially profile the finest rookie of the week. Just the one which I’ve been watching.)

González solely performed seven minutes in Boston’s win over Cleveland and may even see his position shrivel now that Tatum is again. On the different hand, he had 18 factors, 16 rebounds and three steals in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks on March 2 and has been good sufficient to earn common rotation minutes for one in every of the league’s finest groups. Since we would not see a lot of him the remainder of the manner, let’s speak about him now.

The greatest factor that stands out about “You-Go” is its protection and power. At 6-foot-6 with a stable body and good lateral quickness, he is often been in a position to maintain his personal in opposition to nearly anyone. The numbers again up the eye take a look at; he has stable charges of blocks and steals and has drawn 17 offensive fouls in his 916 minutes.

Additionally, his affect stats paint a good image, with the Celtics outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 per 100 in his minutes. While a few of this owes to being a part of dominant Boston bench items as talked about above, at the very least it makes a case that he can maintain issues going and never get in the manner.

Although a wing, González additionally profiles a lot larger on the glass, the place his 12.2 % rebound charge would put him in stable firm with most fours. The eye take a look at says he bounds off the ground, flies in from the corners on offense and chases the ball out of its zone on both hand, so this seems actual.

Offensively, González is finest in transition as a result of he is a good athlete who can end at the rim; he is capturing 74.5 % inside 3 ft, and 10 of his 66 2-point baskets this 12 months are dunks.

The worrying half is all the things else. González has an iffy exterior shot and struggles to make the proper learn at NBA pace. He additionally, at this level, has a really restricted deal with. Those issues conspire to restrict his offensive affect, particularly in the half courtroom the place he’s largely requested to chill in the nook. He has solely a 12.0 % utilization charge — perhaps not so dangerous with the expertise round him — and though he can rating on cuts and putbacks, he would not draw fouls.

The swing talent, as ever, is exterior capturing. González has solely made 11 of his 24 free throws and shot simply 26.7 % from 3 over the course of his earlier two seasons in Spain. As a Celtic, he has knocked down sufficient 3s up to now to maintain defenses sincere: 34 in 100 tries. Right now, he solely takes the wide-open ones, however these are the ones Boston wants him to fireplace away and knock down. Teams will not guard him in the playoffs and can dare him to make these.

Given that he simply turned 20 in February and is already a plus rebounder and defender, the Celtics will not need González to present that a lot offensive progress to find yourself with a constructive return on a late first-round decide. With Brown and Tatum dominating possessions, a defensive bulldog who can play off-ball has apparent long-term match potential. And given Boston’s participant improvement successes over the previous two years, it is most likely about the finest place González might be to maximize no matter offensive talent he has.