Charlotte 49ers vs. USF Bulls prediction, pick for NCAAM on Saturday 3/14/26

Conference tournaments proceed on Saturday throughout the school basketball panorama. The semifinal spherical of the American Athletic Conference tourney sees the top-seeded USF Bulls battle the upstart Charlotte 49ers to punch a ticket to the championship sport. Will we get an upset on this contest, or will the favorites’ dominant run by means of the convention proceed at this time?

Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Charlotte vs. USF on Saturday, March 14 within the AAC Tournament.

Charlotte vs. USF prediction, preview

Charlotte 49ers

Just attending to the semifinals of this match is spectacular for Charlotte. The program sits 17-16 general on the marketing campaign and simply 9-9 in convention play. That earned the 49ers the No. 5 seed in a weak AAC, however they did notably down each No. 9 Tulane and No. 4 UAB to get thus far. This’ll nonetheless be a really troublesome battle given their 0-4 report in opposition to Quad 1 groups like USF although, in addition to a 0-5 mark in opposition to Quad 2 sides.

Charlotte falls all the way in which to 181st within the KenPom rankings with a -1.10 NETRTG. The 49ers put up 73.3 PPG and have the One hundred and fifth-ranked ORTG, and their taking pictures splits aren’t too shabby with a forty five.7% FG% and a 35.6% 3P%. They common 13.0 assists, however a 1.106 AST/TO ratio would not encourage confidence and the workforce tends to grind video games to a halt to start with, sitting 348th in adjusted tempo. Furthermore, Charlotte brings in solely 34.4 rebounds per contest and permits 73.9 PPG to opponents with the 284th DRTG within the nation.

The 49ers are led in scoring by Ben Bradford with 13.5 PPG, and he brings in 3.8 rebounds to associate with it. Dezayne Mingo posts 12.7 factors with a team-high 4.7 assists, additionally taking pictures 38.6% from three. Anton Bonke brings 10.4 factors with a team-best 8.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks as properly. However, these are the one three gamers scoring in double figures, with Damoni Harrison enjoying a key function together with a deeper rotation.

USF Bulls

The Bulls earned the highest spot within the convention match and maintain a 23-8 general report with a powerful 15-3 mark in AAC play. They’ve proven combat in opposition to some high quality groups all season and are notably 5-2 in opposition to Quad 2 groups together with 6-3 in opposition to Quad 3s like Charlotte, as properly. Notably, this shall be their first sport of this tourney after getting a bye all the way in which to the semifinal, so relaxation is on their facet.

USF sits 52nd within the KenPom rankings with a +15.25 NETRTG. The program performs an up-tempo model and leans closely on its offense, which averages 87.6 PPG, sixth-most within the nation. The Bulls shoot simply 43.7% general and 33.0% from three, however they make up for the dearth of effectivity with the third-most shot makes an attempt on a per-game foundation. They additionally dish 17.0 assists with a pleasant 1.499 AST/TO ratio, and dominance on the boards with 42.6 rebounds per sport locations them third within the nation in that stat as properly. The protection would not produce to the identical stage by permitting 77.4 PPG, however USF does rank twenty fourth in opponent turnovers and boasts the Fifty fifth-ranked DRTG within the league.

Wes Enis paces the roster with 16.5 PPG, whereas Izaiyah Nelson produces 15.8 factors with a team-high 9.8 boards within the frontcourt. Joseph Pinion averages 14.2 PPG as properly, and Josh Omojafo brings 11.7 factors with 5.2 rebounds. CJ Brown additionally contributes 11.4 factors with a team-high 5.0 assists. That makes for 5 double-digit scorers on the workforce, whereas no different participant logs even quarter-hour per sport.

Charlotte vs. USF pick, finest wager

DraftKings Sportsbook lists USF as a 15.5-point favourite with -1600 odds on the Moneyline. Charlotte is a +900 ML underdog with the sport whole set at 153.5 mixed factors.

Clearly, the Cinderella run stops right here for the 49ers assuming this matchup performs out as anticipated. Last time these groups met again on March 8 within the regular-season finale, the Bulls dominated with an 83-60 victory on their residence flooring, profitable the rebounding battle by 5 boards and forcing 15 turnovers from their opponent within the course of with 11 steals. Their largest lead of the day was 32 factors.

Now, one other 23-point win could also be a bit of harder, however there’s nonetheless a superb opportunity for USF to cowl the 14.5-point spread at this time. The Bulls are 16-14 ATS this season general, 13-11 ATS as the favourite and 10-8 ATS in convention video games. While the opponent will look to gradual the tempo, the sheer quantity at which USF places up photographs ought to nonetheless show overwhelming to a Charlotte assault that lacks many standout scoring choices. If you issue within the disruption the Bulls create on the glass and in passing lanes, plus the final end result of this matchup, 16 factors feels completely achievable. USF ought to punch its ticket to the convention title sport.

Best Bet: USF Bulls -16.5 (-108)