California 2026 Poll: Hilton, Swalwell, Bianco Lead Nonpartisan Primary for Governor
A brand new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the first for Governor finds Republican Steve Hilton main the sector at 17%, adopted by Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14%, Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%, former Rep. Katie Porter at 10%, and Tom Steyer at 9%. Twenty-one p.c are undecided. Since December, help for Hilton and Steyer elevated by 5 factors, help for Swalwell elevated by two factors, and help for Porter decreased by one level.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%,” Spencer Kimball, government director of Emerson College Polling, mentioned. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided.”
Governor Gavin Newsom’s approval ranking is at 44%, whereas 45% disapprove of the job the Governor is doing. This displays a three-point lower in Newsom’s approval ranking because the December survey, and a six-point improve in disapproval. President Donald Trump has a 62% disapproval ranking amongst California voters, whereas 32% approve of the job he’s doing.
Senator Alex Padilla has a 42% approval ranking amongst California voters and a 32% disapproval; compared, 35% approve of the job Adam Schiff is doing as senator whereas 40% disapprove.
A majority of voters (53%) say they’ve thought-about leaving California due to the price of dwelling within the state, whereas 47% haven’t.
When requested what the one greatest pressure on their family finances in the intervening time is, 28% be aware housing, 21% utilities, 17% groceries, and 9% healthcare. Eleven p.c expertise no actual pressure on their family finances.
A plurality of California voters (47%) oppose knowledge facilities being inbuilt or close to their neighborhood, whereas 24% help their development.
Opposition to knowledge facilities will increase with voters’ academic attainment: 29% of these with a highschool diploma oppose knowledge facilities, 58% of these with a university diploma, and 62% of these with a postgraduate diploma oppose.
The economic system is the highest problem for 37% of California voters, up three factors from December. Nineteen p.c suppose housing affordability is the highest problem going through California, 16% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 6% healthcare, and 5% crime.
Voters had been requested if they like the Trump or Biden administration’s insurance policies on immigration: 41% desire Biden’s insurance policies, 38% Trump’s, and 21% neither.
Voters had been additionally requested about this yr’s Winter Olympics in Milan and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. Regarding this yr’s Olympics, 19% are very , 50% considerably , and 32% not in any respect. Regarding the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, 34% are very , 40% considerably , and 26% not in any respect.
Methodology
The Emerson College California survey was carried out February 13-14, 2026. The pattern of California seemingly voters, n=1,000, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 proportion factors. The knowledge units had been weighted by gender, age, and training primarily based on US Census parameters and voter file knowledge.
It is necessary to do not forget that subsets primarily based on demographics, comparable to gender, age, training, and race/ethnicity, carry with them greater credibility intervals, because the pattern measurement is lowered. Survey outcomes ought to be understood throughout the ballot’s vary of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a ballot will fall outdoors the vary of scores 1 in 20 occasions.
Data was collected by contacting a voter listing of cellphones through MMS-to-web textual content and e-mail, voter lists supplied by Aristotle. The survey was provided in English. Additional panel responses had been collected through PureSpectrum, matched to the voter file.
All questions requested on this survey with actual wording and order, together with full outcomes, demographics, and cross tabulations might be discovered beneath. The survey is sponsored by Nexstar Media / Emerson College.
