Buy Willson Contreras, sell Brandon Marsh, hold Tyler Soderstrom in fantasy baseball

We’re on the quarter mark of the season, which signifies that we have already banked loads of baseball, however there may be additionally lots of time for slumping gamers and groups to show issues round. Yordan Alvarez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Max Muncy (LAD) have been all depressing at this level final 12 months. This season remains to be in the highest of the third inning.

Buy

Mark Vientos, 1B, NYM

After Vientos’ forgettable 2025, it did not appear to be he had a spot on the Mets’ roster, not to mention your fantasy staff. Injuries and a swing adjustment have modified that. He’s swinging tougher and, at the least as importantly, getting extra raise, which has bumped his Fly Ball (FB) charge over 40%. He’s additionally displaying some modest enchancment along with his batting eye, with a couple of extra swings in the zone and some much less out of it. His swinging strike charge, has improved to 14.9% (nonetheless on the excessive facet, however higher than the earlier three years). He’ll by no means be a excessive batting common man, I believe his Ok charge will creep up a bit, and his enjoying time could fluctuate if the Mets ever get absolutely wholesome, however for now Vientos is in a groove and tapping into his pure energy.

Willson Contreras, 1B, BOS

From a fast look, Contreras seems to be like the identical man he was in St. Louis — 20-ish homers with a median and OBP a notch above league common. Look a bit nearer, and he is modified fairly a bit in what I assume is a response to enjoying in a park that’s significantly better for right-handed energy. He’s instantly some of the pull-heavy hitters in the league, and his barrel charge has leapt as much as 17.6%. His strikeout charge is up a bit as nicely, however that is wonderful if it is a part of this total bundle of adjustments. I see him topping his career-high in homers (24).

Carson Benge, OF, NYM

Benge’s first month in MLB was held up totally by his protection and base operating, however in the previous few weeks, the bat has come round. In his previous 16 video games, he is slashed a nifty .300/.352/.500, which is clearly a small pattern, nevertheless it provides us some proof of the strong hit device and energy he confirmed in the minors. He’ll sit in opposition to lefties typically, and we should always count on some tough patches right here and there as he will get acclimated to MLB, however one thing like a 15-HR, 25-SB season feels reachable, although nonetheless removed from assured.

Kyle Bradish, SP, BAL

It seems that Bradish might be not the brand new Tarik Skubal, regardless that he appeared prefer it on the finish of final 12 months. He’s additionally not the mess he is been thus far this 12 months. His .366 BABIP and 69.4% strand charge point out some quantity of dangerous luck. I nonetheless do not feel like I’ve an excellent learn on him, however his rest-of-season projections and his profession numbers inform a reasonably constant story of an ERA round 3.65 and a Ok charge of 25%. I’d fortunately pay for that with some optimism he can discover a couple of extra strikeouts.

Sell

Xander Bogaerts, SS, SD

Bogaerts has not modified, however his HR/FB charge has. His bat velocity, exit velocity, swinging-strike charge, batting common, barrel charge, xBA, xSLG, FB% and Ok% are all principally the identical as final 12 months. His 17.9% HR/FB charge, nonetheless, is sort of double what it has been since he got here to San Diego. He’s been pulling extra balls, which helps, and swinging extra in the zone, however there is no compelling motive to assume he is discovered a brand new degree of energy.

Brandon Marsh, OF, PHI

I’ll confess that till I used to be digging into his stats for this writeup, I had not absolutely appreciated the type of participant that Marsh is. By the “raw” metrics, he is a strong, if unremarkable participant — good contact skill and velocity, energy a bit under common. His profession slash line of .267/.335/.423 tells the identical story in a unique approach. Here’s the bizarre half: his profession BABIP is .375. That’s tops in MLB since he got here into the league in 2021, and second place (Riley Greene and Xavier Edwards at .352) just isn’t particularly shut. He’s not doing it with blinding velocity or a great deal of line drives, he simply has a swing that’s optimized for hitting balls that drop in entrance of the outfielders. This 12 months, he is been swinging extra, each in and out of the zone, and the outcomes have been nice, however even Marsh is not going to maintain a .413 BABIP going. Expect one thing nearer to his profession line going ahead.

Clay Holmes, SP, NYM

Holmes’ Ok charge has been under 20% since transitioning to a starter, which implies he must excel in all places else to be fantasy related in most leagues. He has been that and extra by means of his first eight begins, with an ERA below 2.00. However, he is managed that with a .222 BABIP and a 87.3% strand charge, neither of that are sustainable. ERA estimators and ROS projections each put his ERA in the high-3s. That may nonetheless be deep league-relevant along with his Ok charge, however he’ll be fringy in 12-teamers.

Sean Burke, SP, CHI

Burke has had higher management this 12 months, and he has led to a tidy 5.6% stroll charge, backing as much as a 3.68 ERA. He does not get lots of whiffs, nonetheless, and it will not take a lot regression for each of these numbers to rise. If they do, he’ll be on the waiver wire in most leagues by the summer season.

hold

Austin Riley, 3B, ATL

I noticed Riley as a bounce-back candidate heading into the 12 months, nevertheless it’s been a decidedly not bouncy first quarter of the 12 months. His barrel charge, which has by no means been decrease than 13% since 2021, sits at 9.1%. He’s chasing extra and swinging in the zone lower than he has in the previous three years. The excellent news is that in different methods he seems to be like his common self. His bat velocity, BB charge and Ok charge all look wonderful. He’s pulling the ball greater than typical and his launch angle is up a tick, which makes me surprise if he tinkered along with his swing to attempt to unlock extra energy. I do not know if he’ll ever get again to being a top-20 hitter, however he is higher than this.

Tyler Soderstrom, OF, ATH

Soderstrom has had a sluggish begin and it could make some managers surprise if his breakout final 12 months was a miracle. Under the hood, he is principally the identical man. His bat velocity, barrel charge, hard-hit charge, and swinging-strike charge are throughout what he did final 12 months. He’s simply doing a reverse-Bogaerts: his HR/FB charge of 10.4% is nicely under his profession charge of 16.3% (or final 12 months’s 18.9%). Better luck and the scorching Sacramento summer season ought to get him again on monitor.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, TEX

Heading into the season, I used to be chilly relative to the market on Gore, as a result of I noticed a good-not-great pitcher with lots of hype behind him. Now I see him as a good-not-great pitcher in the center of a tough stretch. That mentioned, that is a kind of circumstances the place “hold” means “buy for cheap” or “sell at draft-day price” in case you can. His velocity was down a tick in his previous two begins, which might be a blip, or it might be a bodily subject that can have to be addressed sooner or later. If he is wholesome, I’d count on an ERA round 4.00 with a 27% Ok-rate.