Bracketology: Florida passes UConn for fourth No. 1 seed as Selection Sunday nears

Florida surpassed UConn for the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology on Saturday after the Gators gained 84-77 at Kentucky and the Huskies fell at Marquette.

While the race stays tight, our mannequin’s side-by-side scrubbing course of resulted in Florida gaining a slight edge over UConn, even if the Huskies beat the Gators 77-73 at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 9.

Florida is now 12-5 in Quad 1 and unbeaten throughout Quad 3 and Quad 4. UConn is 7-2 in Quad 1 and now has its first Quad 2 defeat following a 68-62 loss to a Marquette group that can enter the Big East Tournament at 12-19 (7-13 Big East). The Huskies additionally suffered a Quad 3 dwelling loss to Creighton on Feb. 18.

UConn (27-4, 17-3) entered the day at No. 4 in Wins Above Bubble, which is a vital resume metric utilized by the choice committee. Florida was No. 5 with a considerable amount of “WAB” floor to cowl as a way to overtake the Huskies.

Saturday’s outcomes closed that hole to a lifeless warmth, and the Gators will probably have extra room for upward mobility throughout the SEC Tournament than the Huskies will within the Big East Tournament. But even when the committee had been assembly at present and deciding who to put on the No. 1 seed line, the Gators would have a robust case.

Where Florida has the sting

Where Florida really owns separation on UConn in a side-by-side comparability is in predictive metrics. The Gators are No. 4 in KenPom.com, rating solely behind well-established No. 1 seeds duke, Michigan and Arizona. In the trio of predictive metrics utilized by the committee, the Gators are clearly No. 4 whereas UConn lags a number of spots behind.

The Huskies landed at No. 11 in KenPom following their loss to the Golden Eagles and can probably common out round tenth within the trio of predictive metrics utilized by the committee come Sunday morning.

While results-based metrics — such as WAB — carry extra weight, Florida’s marked edge in predictive metrics is analytics-backed proof that confirms what has grow to be apparent: Florida is working at a degree that makes it deserving of a No. 1 seed.

The Gators (25-6, 16-2 SEC) have gained 11 straight video games and had already secured the SEC’s outright title earlier than Saturday’s win at Kentucky. UConn’s loss implies that St. John’s is the outright Big East champion.

That may matter come Selection Sunday. If each Florida and UConn win their convention tournaments, the Gators could be a double-champion whereas the Huskes can’t attain that plateau.

It was reiterated to media throughout final month’s mock selection exercise with NCAA officers and choice committee members that deference may be given — and sometimes is — to groups that win each their convention’s common season and event titles.

The previous 2025

Despite the truth that UConn has fewer losses than the Gators and a head-to-head victory, precedents solidified by the committee final 12 months work in Florida’s favor.

Auburn earned the No. 1 total seed for the 2025 NCAA Tournament over fellow No. 1 seeds Florida and Duke, even if the Tigers had extra losses than each and a head-to-head loss in opposition to each.

Head-to-head outcomes and loss quantity solely go to this point in a sport the place 360+ groups log 30+ video games in opposition to vastly totally different schedules earlier than Selection Sunday. Auburn had extra Quad 1 victories than its opponents for the No. 1 total seed final 12 months, which was mirrored in its top-ranked WAB rating.

If Florida and UConn each win out and win their convention tournaments, the Gators will probably rank forward of the Huskies in WAB and will definitely have extra Quad 1 victories along with the aforementioned edge in predictive analytics.