2026 NBA playoffs: Predicting each series, including the Finals
Here is a truism about sports activities followers: Everyone loves brackets.
So why ought to school basketball get all the enjoyable? With the NBA postseason set to start this week, let’s take a web page out of the March Madness playbook and fill out an NBA playoff bracket.
First, we’ll use ESPN’s Basketball Power Index to fill in the 4 groups projected to advance out of the play-in match:
Then, we’ll predict the remainder of the playoff outcomes, whittling 16 groups down to 1 elevating the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
East first spherical
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Charlotte Hornets (8)
Despite the hole in seeds, these groups have the same profile. Since Jan. 1, Charlotte ranks second in the league in internet ranking, whereas Detroit is third. The Hornets boast an elite offense, and the Pistons have a robust protection. Both groups are led by a number of gamers who had been lottery picks, plus one key contributor who was beforehand on a two-way deal (Daniss Jenkins for Detroit, Moussa Diabate for Charlotte).
The two groups additionally engaged in a brawl in February, resulting in suspensions for Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart.
Those substances set the stage for a way more compelling 1 vs. 8 collection than common. But finally, the Pistons ought to advance as a result of their superior measurement makes them a foul matchup for the scorching Hornets. Detroit was 3-0 in opposition to Charlotte in the common season and outscored the Hornets 188-96 in the paint throughout these video games.
The decide: Pistons in 6
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)
Don’t pay a lot consideration to the season collection, which was tied 2-2: These groups have performed simply as soon as since Nov. 11, and Jayson Tatum did not play in any matchup in opposition to Philadelphia this season.
The 76ers can be an intriguing upset decide if Joel Embiid had been positively accessible as a result of he would current an imposing problem for Boston’s untested entrance line.
But with the 76ers’ MVP middle probably sidelined due to an emergency appendectomy, at the identical time that Boston’s rotation is totally wholesome, there isn’t any purpose to anticipate Philadelphia to problem the most full group in the convention.
The decide: Celtics in 5
New York Knicks (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)
New York and Atlanta staged an entertaining playoff preview final week, when each groups shortened their rotations in a 108-105 Knicks win. The margin between the two groups was extremely shut, as Hawks guard CJ McCollum‘s would-be tying half-court heave got here a fraction of a second too late.
That recreation demonstrated that Atlanta has an actual likelihood for an upset on this collection. The Hawks have a robust beginning 5 and have been scorching for months, and Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make a spectacle out of attempting to decelerate Jalen Brunson. But the Knicks’ superior depth, significantly in the frontcourt, will probably be the distinction: X issue Mitchell Robinson averaged 10.5 rebounds (4 offensive) and a couple of.0 blocks in 19.0 minutes per recreation in opposition to Atlanta this season.
The decide: Knicks in 7
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)
Cleveland has extra expertise than Toronto, however Toronto swept the season collection 3-0; the Celtics are the solely different Eastern Conference group that did so in opposition to the Cavaliers this season.
But do not learn an excessive amount of into these regular-season outcomes: All three video games came about earlier than Thanksgiving, which means James Harden wasn’t on the Cavaliers’ roster but, and Larry Nance Jr., De’Andre Hunter (twice) and Lonzo Ball (twice) began in these video games for the Cavs because of numerous accidents. Cleveland additionally made an unsustainably low 28% of its 3-point makes an attempt in opposition to Toronto, in contrast with 36% over the full season. And Toronto, which ranked twenty sixth in made 3s this season, is not well-suited to reap the benefits of Cleveland’s weak point defending the arc.
All of these components recommend that the Raptors will not carry their regular-season success into the postseason, and the Cavaliers ought to advance with relative ease.
The decide: Cavaliers in 5
East semifinals
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
Even although the Pistons are the increased seed, successful eight extra regular-season video games than the Cavaliers, Cleveland would seemingly be the favourite on this collection: According to DraftKings, the Cavaliers have the second-best odds to succeed in the Finals in the East, whereas the Pistons rank fourth.
But I feel that consensus view is mistaken. First, there is a a lot wider hole between Detroit’s rock-solid protection (No. 2 in the league) and Cleveland’s shaky unit (No. 15) than between the two offenses (No. 6 for Cleveland, No. 9 for Detroit).
Second, Cleveland’s late-season surge is one thing of a mirage. The Cavaliers are 21-9 since Feb. 7, when Harden performed his first recreation for the group, however a number of of these wins had been uncomfortably shut video games in opposition to Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Utah and Indiana. The Cavaliers have a plus-4.8 internet ranking over that stretch, whereas the Pistons are plus-9.0 in the identical span.
And one subset of that stretch satisfied me of the Pistons’ playoff readiness: Detroit went 9-3 throughout Cade Cunningham‘s absence due to a collapsed lung, with two of the losses coming in time beyond regulation. The top-seeded Pistons pull an ostensible upset — not less than in keeping with Vegas — and attain the convention finals.
The decide: Pistons in 7
Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)
The Knicks aren’t afraid of the Celtics after successful the season collection 3-1 and eliminating them in a second-round upset final spring.
But Boston’s consistency, contrasted with New York’s seasonlong seesawing, makes it a a lot safer decide. In some respects, the Celtics had been very unfortunate to lose in the second spherical final 12 months; they’d a a lot better shot high quality all through the collection, per GeniusIQ, and misplaced Tatum to an Achilles tear halfway by means of. They’ll get their revenge this season, successful the last recreation at Madison Square Garden, the place Tatum suffered his damage a 12 months in the past.
The decide: Celtics in 6
East finals
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)
This convention finals matchup would have appeared inconceivable in the preseason, when the Pistons gave the impression to be a rising however nonetheless nascent contender and the Celtics seemed poised for a “gap year” with out Tatum.
But now it is a compelling conflict between the NBA’s second-best offense and second-best protection, and the seemingly prime two finishers for the Coach of the Year award.
To decide which group will attain the Finals, the hole between the two groups’ wings may very well be decisive. Tatum (who did not play in opposition to Detroit this season), Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are two-way stars, whereas Ausar Thompson and Duncan Robinson are one-way specialists. Advantage: Boston.
The decide: Celtics in 6
West first spherical
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8)
The Thunder’s solely loss throughout their 24-1 begin was in opposition to Portland, nevertheless it got here on the second night time of a highway back-to-back set, and Oklahoma City led that recreation by 22 factors earlier than letting up down the stretch. In the different three conferences, Oklahoma City received by eight, 27 and 29 factors, despite the fact that Deni Avdija performed in each recreation.
In a playoff setting, the Thunder ought to proceed to coast. Both groups have fearsome perimeter defenders, however Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superior prime choice to Avdija, and the Thunder have many extra secondary playmakers behind their main scorer.
The decide: Thunder in 4
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Phoenix Suns (7)
On the floor, this looks as if it may very well be a aggressive collection, as Phoenix beat San Antonio twice in November (although Victor Wembanyama missed a kind of contests) and misplaced by only one level in a gathering final month.
But San Antonio’s latest kind suggests the No. 2 seed has ascended to a different degree, so this collection ought to be over shortly. The Spurs’ solely losses since the finish of January are to the Nuggets (3 times) and Knicks, who each landed No. 3 seeds; they have not misplaced to a non-elite opponent in months.
The decide: Spurs in 4
Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)
Once upon a time, Minnesota had Denver’s quantity, going 8-3 in opposition to the Nuggets between the 2024 postseason and 2024-25 marketing campaign. But the Nuggets dealt with the Timberwolves higher this season, successful three of 4 conferences, and their solely loss got here with Aaron Gordon out.
The Nuggets enter the playoffs on a 12-game successful streak, whereas Minnesota stumbled to the end line. And Denver has the benefit on this collection as a result of Gordon is wholesome and the Timberwolves’ multi-big defensive technique in opposition to Nikola Jokic has misplaced its effectiveness. Jokic averaged 36 factors, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and 65% capturing in opposition to Minnesota this season.
The decide: Nuggets in 5
Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
Even with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams injured, this collection has its share of star energy, with one particularly compelling storyline: For the first time, after three Finals clashes, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will meet in a non-Finals playoff collection. Remarkably, each gamers at the moment are their groups’ No. 1 choices, regardless of a mixed age of 78.
Despite their accidents, the Lakers have a respectable likelihood on this collection. Lineups with James enjoying with out Doncic and Reaves this season had a plus-9.0 internet ranking, per databallr, and James in lineups with shooters have been profitable throughout his storied profession. But I believe that after a surprisingly aggressive begin to the collection, Houston will alter and achieve the higher hand; the Rockets’ expertise benefit is simply too nice for even James to beat.
The decide: Rockets in 6
West semifinals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
After the Thunder wanted two overtimes to beat the Rockets on opening night time, Houston seemed like a contender to knock off the reigning champs. But a 20-point beatdown in January tempered that optimism. (Houston’s lone victory in opposition to Oklahoma City got here with Gilgeous-Alexander out.)
Turnovers will destroy the Rockets’ probabilities of holding tempo on this collection: Oklahoma City ranked first in turnover price on offense and second on protection, per Cleaning the Glass, whereas Houston ranked twenty seventh on offense and twenty first on protection.
The decide: Thunder in 5
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Denver Nuggets (3)
Expect loads of factors on this collection: In the first three video games between these groups (many regulars did not go well with up in the fourth, on the final day of the common season), the last scores had been 139-136, 136-131 and 136-134 (in time beyond regulation), with Denver successful two of them.
Notably, Wembanyama appeared in solely certainly one of the groups’ conferences this season: the Nuggets’ 136-134 win in early April, arguably the greatest recreation of the season. And Jokic has dominated Wembanyama in seven profession conferences, going for 37.3 factors per recreation.
But in what guarantees to be a scintillating back-and-forth collection, I give the Spurs the slightest edge for 2 causes. The first is home-court benefit, as San Antonio went 32-8 at house this season; solely the Thunder (34-7) had been higher.
The second is that, even acknowledging Jokic’s historic mastery of Wembanyama, with Gordon’s fixed damage danger and Peyton Watson‘s availability unsure, I’ve extra religion that San Antonio will determine methods to maintain Denver out of the 130s than vice versa. The Spurs ranked third in defensive ranking this season, whereas the Nuggets ranked twenty first.
San Antonio advances in a thriller, whereas Denver loses in seven video games in the convention semifinals for the third straight 12 months.
The decide: Spurs in 7
West finals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
I have not been this excited for a possible playoff collection this decade. Oklahoma City and San Antonio might spark a decade-long rivalry this spring, after the Spurs beat the reigning champs in 4 out of 5 conferences this season.
Oklahoma City has essential playoff expertise and the greatest clutch scorer in the NBA on its facet. But San Antonio presents actual matchup issues for the champs due to its athleticism, guard play and game-changing power at middle.
For the Thunder, the most scary function of their regular-season conferences in opposition to the Spurs was Wembanyama’s game-by-game plus-minus ranking:
• Plus-21 in 21 minutes
• Plus-13 in 23 minutes
• Plus-13 in 26 minutes
• Minus-14 in 28 minutes
• Plus-17 in 28 minutes
The Spurs had been plus-50 in 5 video games with Wembanyama on the courtroom, or plus-10 per recreation — despite the fact that he averaged simply 25 minutes per contest.
For comparability, Gilgeous-Alexander performed in 4 video games in opposition to San Antonio, and the Thunder had been minus-1 total in his 35.5 minutes per recreation.
It’s potential that Wembanyama cannot deal with many extra minutes due to his aggressive fashion of play. He seemed noticeably fatigued when he reached 40 minutes in San Antonio’s thrilling time beyond regulation loss in Denver this month.
But Wembanyama does not must play 40 minutes at altitude each recreation in the playoffs, and he efficiently exceeded 35 minutes 10 occasions this season. In these video games, he averaged 30.7 factors, 14.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 4.0 blocks whereas making 44% of his 7.3 3-point makes an attempt and 86% of his 9.6 free throw makes an attempt. That’s not proof of a constant downside enjoying large minutes; if something, it is the reverse, and Wembanyama’s stats have been even higher when he has elevated his workload.
And if the Spurs might batter Oklahoma City with Wembanyama enjoying 25 minutes, then think about what they might do when he receives one other quarter’s price of enjoying time each recreation.
The decide: Spurs in 6
NBA Finals
Boston Celtics (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
The Celtics and Spurs have by no means confronted off in the Finals, and each franchises have exceptional success on this climactic spherical: Boston is 18-5 in the Finals, whereas San Antonio is 5-1. Something has to offer on this sudden showdown.
The Spurs received each conferences this season, including one by which virtually each key participant on each groups was wholesome. (Payton Pritchard was absent for Boston.) San Antonio relied on a large free throw benefit, which ought to persist in these Finals, as the Celtics ranked thirtieth in offensive free throw price this season, and the Spurs ranked first in defensive free throw price.
Crucially, the Spurs received each video games regardless of capturing simply 33% from distance, which may very well be a vital level for this collection. The Celtics allowed the highest opponent 3-point try price this season, as Joe Mazzulla packed the paint on protection, and so they’d absolutely try that technique in opposition to the Spurs, whose best weak point is perhaps their questionable shooters from deep.
But the Spurs’ 3-point capturing has perked up of late. Through Feb. 4, they ranked nineteenth in 3-point makes (12.9 per recreation) and twenty fourth in accuracy (34.6%), however since then, they’re eighth in 3-point makes (14.7 per recreation) and third in accuracy (37.9%). Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are each above 40% in that latter span.
I predict the Spurs will make sufficient open 3s to use Boston’s defensive recreation plan and full a storybook journey, from out of the playoffs to elevating the trophy in a 12 months. Wembanyama joins fellow Spurs Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard as Finals MVPs of their age-22 seasons. And the NBA’s Wemby Era formally begins.
The decide: Spurs in 6
