2026 MLB predictions: Our hottest hot takes two weeks in
Two weeks into the 2026 MLB season, groups have performed only a fraction of their 162 video games. Does that imply it is too quickly to actually know the way the season forward goes to play out? Well, sure — however we’re not about to let that cease us.
As we do every year at this time, we requested our MLB specialists to go all-in on one factor that has stood out up to now and provides us their boldest prediction based mostly on the small pattern. They had been allowed to select something they needed with two floor guidelines: It needed to be daring, and it needed to be one thing they really suppose might maintain up for the whole season.
Some of our predictions got here in additional spicy whereas others had been a bit gentle, so we have taken the freedom of rating the predictions by their salsa equal and breaking down why they landed in every tier.
Take a stroll on the gentle aspect
There will probably be a shift in public response to MLB’s ball-strike problem rule
The present response to the automated ball-strike system is borderline giddy (I prefer it, too), however will probably be extra tempered in just a few weeks. Why? The leaguewide batting common as soon as once more seems to be spiraling, maybe worse than ever. Why is that? I do not know! But stroll charges are sky excessive, strikeout charges maintain pushing upward and the shift restrictions proceed to have solely a modest impact on league-level BABIP.
Sure, pitch challenges are enjoyable, and we do not know if any of the batting common drawback is said to the ABS — a number of the early numbers might merely be weather-related. But … we do know the strike zone is a bit of completely different with this method and, traditionally, even small modifications to the zone can wreak havoc. What if one of many unintended penalties of the oh-so-wonderful ABS system is to exacerbate an already befuddling drawback? I’m simply asking questions right here. — Bradford Doolittle
Salsa equal: Mango. It’s not a lot the mildness of this prediction as it’s the sudden nature of it. When you dive into hot takes, you expect conventional warmth — award winners, division champs, gamers placing up profession numbers — and a declaration about how the ABS will probably be considered feels lots like dipping your chip right into a bowl of salsa and being greeted by a surprisingly fruit-filled style.
For the primary time since 1950, 10% of plate appearances will consequence in a stroll
One predictable consequence of the ABS, meant or not, is extra walks, and it has manifested instantly. Through the primary 135 video games this season, the leaguewide stroll tally was 1,011, which is 74 greater than on the identical level final 12 months. On a fee foundation, 9.9% of plate appearances have ended in a free move, the very best at this juncture of a season since 1997 (10.3%).
Expect extra of the identical. Hitters are extra attuned than ever to the worth of strolling, and most pitchers would sooner nibble than danger injury on the coronary heart of the plate. — Paul Hembekides
Salsa equal: Pineapple. If you mixed this with the mango salsa-like take above, the end result would little doubt pair properly — however we’re searching for spice right here, and this simply would not pack the warmth.
A pair of former high pitching prospects will break by means of
Two former top-100 prospects could have their breakout seasons on the mound, with every posting 3-plus WAR regardless of by no means topping 1.0 WAR earlier than, fueled by pitching-savvy orgs tweaking their arm slots, pitch mixes and pitch grips after they’d already constructed up their stamina to make begins for a full season.
1. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Seattle Mariners: Hancock defied some rules of pitch-design principle over the previous two seasons. He dropped his arm slot 16 levels however saved virtually the identical motion on his four-seamer whereas including 6 inches of sink to his two-seamer. He additionally has added 4 inches of motion to his cutter with out shedding any velocity and now has a sweeper averaging just below 17 inches of sweep. This is a full, useful repertoire and makes Hancock appear to be at the least a midrotation starter.
2. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers: Over the previous two years (with the Giants and Red Sox), Harrison has raised his velocity 2 mph and raised his arm slot 4 levels, which has fueled 4 inches of further elevate in his four-seamer. He’s additionally throwing his slurve 1.6 mph more durable and switched up his changeup grip, getting 5.5 inches extra sink in half on account of 700 fewer rpm on the pitch. Adding a sinker as a fourth choice has stuffed out his repertoire, and his strike throwing is now dialed in regardless of some issues with that in the previous. — Kiley McDaniel
Salsa equal: Three-bean corn. OK, you’ve got combined collectively a few considerably spicy issues and are packaging it as a hot take, however mixing issues collectively inherently brings down the spice of anyone ingredient simply as your coupling of two pitchers makes nailing both prediction rather less daring.
Now we’re heating up
Yordan Alvarez will win American League MVP
Yes, a DH can win the MVP. Shohei Ohtani received the National League award in 2024 and would have nonetheless received final 12 months even when he hadn’t pitched 47 innings (fellow DH Kyle Schwarber really completed second).
Healthy once more after enjoying simply 48 video games final 12 months, Alvarez is off to a blazing begin at .353/.540/.794 and appears locked in for a monster season. We know he can put up MVP numbers over a full season: His 174 common wRC+ from 2022 to 2024 was greater than what Ohtani and Schwarber posted final 12 months. Just a little increase from the Astros successful the AL West will assist, as would a slight downturn in manufacturing from Aaron Judge. — David Schoenfield
Salsa equal: Tostitos chunky. Sometimes you are simply in the temper for a traditional. From that predictable first chew by means of that satisfying-but-not-overwhelming kick, there’s consolation in understanding what you’ll get. But on the finish of the day, you are not going to win any spice contests by going with a name-brand slugger like Alvarez, who everyone knows is an MVP candidate if he can simply keep off the injured record.
Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will every win MOY for the third consecutive 12 months
The Manager of the Year Award is bestowed by means of an odd little bit of baseball author calculus: The man who’s the supervisor of the workforce that almost all exceeds standard knowledge often wins. Dave Roberts’ workforce has received three championships in the previous six seasons, however he hasn’t received the award in a decade as a result of the Dodgers are anticipated to do properly. The Yankees have made the playoffs nearly yearly since Aaron Boone took over, and he has by no means come near successful the award.
With that in thoughts: The Brewers virtually at all times carry out higher than anticipated and can accomplish that once more this 12 months regardless of having traded Freddy Peralta over the winter, and the Guardians shock us yearly. Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will every win for the third straight season. — Buster Olney
Salsa equal: Green chili. We’ll admit, we weren’t actually positive the place to rank this prediction when it first got here in. On one hand, we have seen this pair win this award twice earlier than, so how daring can it actually be? On the opposite, predicting any mixture of issues to occur three years in a row is fairly spicy. So how does that remind us of inexperienced chili? Well, of all of the salsas on the market, it is the inexperienced chili that we most frequently dive into not sure if it is going to be gentle — or surprisingly spicy.
Ben Rice will end in the highest 10 in AL MVP voting
This take misplaced some sizzle with Rice’s scorching begin to the season (he leads the majors in OPS by means of Monday), however I contend this is not simply small-sample dimension trickery or the outset of only a strong marketing campaign. I imagine Rice goes to be probably the greatest hitters in the game this 12 months and transferring ahead for the following a number of seasons. Rice, 27, produced an .836 OPS with 26 dwelling runs in 138 video games final season — his first full 12 months in the majors — whereas being arguably the unluckiest hitter in the game.
His Baseball Savant web page gushed superstar-level crimson. He hit the ball exceptionally arduous, and he did not make many unhealthy swing choices. But the outcomes didn’t match the method. This 12 months, Rice is hitting the ball as arduous as ever with one vital change: He’s pulling the ball greater than ever. Last season, Rice pulled 44.4% of his batted balls. This 12 months, that quantity is as much as 61.1%. It’s early and Rice, a catcher till he reached the majors in 2024, has room for enchancment at first base, however a left-handed hitter smashing the ball to proper discipline at Yankee Stadium with elite plate self-discipline is a recipe for a breakout, MVP-caliber season. — Jorge Castillo
Salsa equal: Chipotle. What makes chipotle salsa so nice? A singular, distinct smoky taste with simply sufficient kick which you can’t get it out of your head. And Rice was the one participant on this record our specialists could not appear to get out of their heads, with a number of hot takers making an attempt to say the Yankees slugger for their very own daring prediction.
The warmth is on
These Pirates are for actual! Nothing towards the strong Brewers/Cubs, however these precocious Pirates are able to win their first NL Central division since — checks the file books — 1992. (By the way in which, Francisco Cabrera turns 60 in October.)
The rotation is not only NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft are strong, too. This new, largely imported offense will get 60 dwelling runs from second baseman Brandon Lowe and first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn, and rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin will hit .275 with 24 dwelling runs to win Rookie of the Year. Oneil Cruz will even grow to be a satisfactory heart fielder. It is all taking place in Pittsburgh! — Eric Karabell
Salsa equal: Mole sauce. When you consider salsa, you in all probability do not consider mole sauce immediately. And once you consider October baseball, you positively don’t consider the Pirates, who haven’t made the postseason since 2015, immediately. And you added a bit of kick by not simply predicting Pittsburgh would sneak in as a wild card, as a substitute following up your 2025 Hot Take of the Year win by giving us a worst-to-first division title prediction this 12 months.
The Cleveland Guardians pitch their approach into the World Series
It’s maybe not so daring to foretell a division’s winner one 12 months to advance to October the following, however in the Guardians’ case, many proceed to write down them off — they are not even in the highest two in division odds at the moment.
However, it is their pitching that is going to hold them into the Fall Classic, fueled by the league’s most underrated rotation — study the names Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo, as a result of they are going to comprise three-fifths of the second rotation in historical past (1998 Braves) with 150-plus K’s apiece. And when the 2026 books are closed, these Guardians will additionally grow to be the primary workforce in baseball historical past to seize three completely different items of postseason {hardware} (MVP Jose Ramirez, Rookie of the Year Chase DeLauter, Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt).
Gavin Williams, rein in the walks these subsequent couple of weeks and I’ll make this hot take a clear 4-for-4 on the awards entrance! — Tristan Cockcroft
Salsa equal: Habanero. Habanero tends to fly below the radar in conversations in regards to the spiciest salsa as a result of it would not have the flash of names to come back on this record — ghost pepper, Carolina reaper — nevertheless it nonetheless brings the warmth. The Guardians match a really comparable profile in terms of predictions: at all times in the combo, however by no means actually revered, and at all times a primary option to be picked after their regular preseason disrespect (twentieth in our initial MLB Power Rankings) adopted by their inevitable shocking run at rivalry.
But this choose stands amongst our spiciest due to the extent of element in calling out three — with an opportunity of a fourth — members of the Guardians successful a serious award.
Chase Burns will win the National League Cy Young
Making such a grand proclamation in spite of everything of two begins this season is a stretch, however every part about Burns, who’s barely 50 innings into his massive league profession with Cincinnati, suggests it isn’t as silly because it seems to be on its face. His stuff is ultra-premium, notably his fastball (at 98.6 the second hardest on common amongst main league starters) and slider (producing an otherworldly 56.3% whiff fee). The evolution of Burns’ changeup, nonetheless, is the nice separator, and if he can throw it with extra confidence (and extra arm-side run than final season), it is the form of pitch that may confound left-handed hitters much more than his main two choices do.
Yes, Burns is in the identical league as Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sánchez. Yes, he could be out-stuffed on any given night time by Jacob Misiorowski or Eury Pérez. They’ll all have their second. This is Burns’ time. — Jeff Passan
Salsa equal: Ghost pepper. First off, any time we’re rating issues by warmth, we will give just a few bonus factors for selecting the man named Burns — particularly one who flashes triple digits on his, look ahead to it, heater. But the true spice in this image is not what Burns brings, it is the names you talked about he would taking out to be named NL Cy Young in his first full season.
Langeliers has improved his dwelling run whole yearly and now enters his prime at age 28. He additionally has hit 24 dwelling runs in his previous 68 video games going again to final season. That extrapolates to over 50 in a full 12 months. Being in the center of a harmful Athletics lineup paired with one other season at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park can solely assist his possibilities, and if he can maintain his strikeout fee in line with final season — a career-low 19.7% — that additional contact will strengthen Langeliers’ hopes as properly. He’s obtained an opportunity. — Jesse Rogers
Salsa equal: Carolina Reaper. A catcher who has barely crossed the 30-home run mark going into rarefied air along with his energy numbers a 12 months later? This choose has a Cal Raleigh 2.0 vibe to it. And that may be very spicy.
Straight fireplace
Sure, go forward and chortle. Miami began 5-1? Easy to dismiss. Sweeping the A’s and taking two of three from the White Sox? Big deal. Now, the competitors is getting harder and right here come the losses! Right? Wrong.
Look, you in all probability cannot title a single particular person in the Marlins’ beginning lineup, none of whom are over 27 years outdated. That’s a function, not a bug. If the New York Mets lose Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor? If the Philadelphia Phillies lose Bryce Harper or Schwarber? If the Atlanta Braves lose Ronald Acuna Jr. or Matt Olson? They’re all cooked. For the Marlins, it is simply “bring on the next guy who doesn’t realize this is supposed to be hard.”
And, so far as pitching goes, Alcantara is 2-0 with a microscopic 0.74 ERA. He received the Cy Young in 2022 with a Marlins workforce that received simply 69 video games. Surely, the trail to extra {hardware} is lots simpler on a workforce that wins round 90. — AJ Mass
Salsa equal: Pepper X. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. You know who else is in the NL East, proper? The mighty Phillies, big-spending Mets and always-dangerous Braves. And you are selecting the Marlins to win the division? That alone would go away us reaching for the closest glass of water to scrub down all of that spice. But then you definately couple it with Alcantara — he of a 5.36 ERA in 2025 — beating the likes of Skenes, Cristopher Sánchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for NL Cy Young? Forget hot take of the 12 months, this prediction might web you hot take of the last decade … that’s, if it really works out.
