Prediction, pick for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326

The second struggle of the UFC 326 Early Prelims includes a Light Heavyweight contest between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay. Tobias is 14-1 with 11 finishes, and lately beat Jair de Oliveira by way of submission to earn a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nurgozhay, 28, is 10-2 however is 0-2 within the UFC. The Early Preloims start at 5:30 pm ET on Paramount+.

Check out my greatest wager for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay on the UFC 326 Early Prelims.

Tobias trains at Chute Boxe Monstro, a offspring of the legendary Chute Boxe health club that has featured the likes of Charles Oliveira. This is Tobias’ UFC debut after being awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2025. Tobias is 14-1 in his MMA profession with 11 victories by submission or knockout.

In this matchup, Tobias is the favourite at -180 with Nurgozhay being a +150 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/beneath is ready at 1.5 rounds, with the beneath -120 and the over -110.

In this contest, each fighters have the identical standing attain (74″) whereas being 6’2″. Tobias and Nurgozhay are every versatile fighters, and though Nurgozhay has extra UFC expertise, Tobias has extra fights on his resume. Tobias’s explosiveness and aggressiveness give him the sting on this contest. Since his final three victories have all come by submission or knockout, it’s best to again him at -115 to pick up the end.