Key areas of contention between Iran and the US

Tehran and Washington have lengthy been at odds over varied points: Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal and its community of proxy teams in the area.

Tehran’s atomic program has for many years been an space of ​​contention with the west. US President Donald Trump’s lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff, claimed final weekend that Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material,” however Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently stated Iran was “not enriching [uranium] right now” — although, he added, it needed to.

Washington had additionally needed negotiations with Tehran that happened in latest weeks to cowl Iran’s ballistic missiles and community of regional militant teams, equivalent to Hizbollah. It argued they threatened regional stability and US belongings.

Here is what unbiased consultants say about these areas of Iranian energy.

What is the state of Iran’s nuclear program?

Based on satellite tv for pc imagery and monitoring of nuclear websites, consultants say Iran’s uranium enrichment program seems to be on maintain, following Israeli and US assaults final June that severely broken its nuclear websites.

In that battle, the US used 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs on the principal enrichment amenities, Natanz and Fordow, and fired missiles at a 3rd website in Isfahan.

“We have not seen any evidence that Iran is trying to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program or enrich uranium,” stated David Albright, a physicist and weapons skilled who’s the founder of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

However, he stated, “the lack of transparency around Iranian nuclear activities leads to uncertainty and worst-case assessments, which will be difficult to refute as time goes on and activities continue.”

Before these assaults, the International Atomic Energy Agency stated Iran had 400kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. Iran says that stockpile is buried beneath the rubble, however its destiny is a priority for western governments.

Uranium enriched to 90 per cent is taken into account weapons grade.

Today, even when Iran nonetheless holds these shares of extremely enriched materials, rebuilding or reactivating enrichment capability would take months quite than weeks, stated US and Israeli consultants.

American assessments have been contradictory. After claiming for months that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, Trump stated on Tuesday that Iran was “at this moment” pursuing its “sinister” ambition of buying a nuclear weapon.

Iran has lengthy insisted it’s not searching for nuclear weapons, whereas President Masoud Pezeshkian this month stated the nation was open to “any kind of verification.” It was unclear if that quantity can be a change to what the International Atomic Energy Agency has stated was its latest method of permitting solely partial inspections of its websites.

Albright stated exercise noticed in satellite tv for pc photographs since final June’s struggle associated principally to restoration operations or hardening underground tunnel entrances.

He stated a brand new constructing was underneath development at the bombed headquarters of the protection ministry analysis facility in Tehran.

What ballistic missiles does Iran have and how may they be used?

Iran considers its huge, principally homegrown missile and drone arsenal to be its principal deterrent in opposition to US and Israeli assaults. “Iran is a one-trick pony,” stated Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Rubio stated this week that the Islamic republic had “thousands of short-range ballistic missiles” that threatened US forces and its bases and companions in the area, alongside naval belongings that “threaten shipping and try to threaten the US Navy.”

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal was depleted in the 12-day struggle with Israel final 12 months. It fired roughly 550 medium-to-long-range missiles, whereas many extra had been destroyed on the floor by Israeli air strikes.

To substitute these, Tehran had been producing missiles round the clock since then, Citrinowicz stated. “They are returning back to where they were before [the war] but [are] “not there yet.”

Experts, together with Lynette Nusbacher, a former senior intelligence adviser to the UK cupboard on the Middle East, stated it was believable that Iran’s short-range ballistic missile arsenal, with ranges between 300km and 1,000km, nonetheless numbers in the 1000’s.

These may hit US bases in the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East. Israel didn’t goal these techniques throughout the struggle.

Iran has a quantity of getting older Chinese-made anti-ship missiles deployed on shore or on quick assault craft. Its anti-ship missiles may very well be used in opposition to industrial transport, together with oil tankers, and in opposition to US naval vessels, Nusbacher stated.

How sturdy is Iran’s community of regional proxies?

US officers have lengthy pointed to Iran’s allied militant teams throughout the Middle East as proof of its place as the world’s “largest state sponsor of terror.”

But Hamas’s October 7 2023 assault on Israel triggered a wave of battle that battered Tehran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, together with Hizbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq.

Hizbollah has lengthy been seen as Lebanon’s strongest army and political power and the crown jewel in Iran’s community. Its energy has been misplaced after a bruising full-scale struggle with Israel in 2024 through which its former chief Hassan Nasrallah and many of its senior management had been assassinated.

The group largely sat out the struggle between Iran and Israel final June, however there’s rising debate about whether or not it could take part in a wider regional battle at Tehran’s request.

Experts estimate it nonetheless retains 20 to 30 per cent of its missile arsenal and tens of 1000’s of fighters, however Israeli surveillance has impaired Hizbollah’s capacity to mount assaults. “As soon as a missile launcher pops up anywhere, the Israelis take it out,” stated Maha Yahya of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

The Institute for the Study of War think-tank this month stated Hizbollah was “preparing militarily for another round of conflict with Israel, possibly to deter an attack and make Israeli military pressure less effective.”

It is perhaps “reinforcing its positions in Lebanon’s mountainous northern and central areas,” the ISW stated.

Iraq’s Shia militias largely prevented the tumult that adopted October 7. On Thursday, one group near Tehran, Kataib Hizbollah, known as on its fighters “to prepare for a long war of attrition” ought to America launch a battle in the area.

Yemen’s Houthi militants, in the meantime, have been seen as one of the handiest teams in Tehran’s axis. They have struck transport in the Red Sea in addition to immediately focusing on Israel. The Houthis have advised they’d help Iran in a renewed confrontation.

Earlier this month, the group staged a mass protest in the capital, rallying underneath the slogan “Steadfast and ready for the next round.”

“Iran’s proxy network has been damaged but not defeated,” Bridget Toomey of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, instructed a Washington-based think-tank.

Are different points coming into play between Iran and the US?

When Tehran brutally cracked down on large-scale protesters earlier this 12 months, Trump stated he may intervene to “rescue” the demonstrators and claimed that Iran backed off finishing up tons of of executions as a result of of his threats.

Iran, in the meantime, needs aid from sanctions, many of which had been launched in waves after Trump deserted a nuclear take care of the Islamic republic throughout his first time period. Tehran additionally needs entry to its belongings which have been frozen overseas.

Satellite picture visualization and cartography by Steven Bernard and Cleve Jones