Jose Altuve’s cold stretch has Astros fans fearing early success was just a mirage
Father Time waits for nobody. It could also be a cliché, but it surely’s a cliché for a motive. Some, ahem, prescribed drugs might have helped to stave off the getting older curves for gamers two or three many years in the past, however gamers like Jose Altuve are always in danger of falling off that cliff sooner or later. A quick begin to 2026 gave some hope that his decline would wait, however his struggles during the last two or three weeks have allowed that concern to creep again in.
After going 0 for 3 on Opening Day, Altuve seemed like he’d turned back the clock for the subsequent 10 video games. While he solely hit two residence runs early, they usually had been each in the identical sport, Altuve was hitting .378/.531/.649 by way of the opening sport of the collection in Colorado after a 3 for five day. He’s had some moments since then, however not practically sufficient. In 21 video games since that day and thru Sunday, he is hit .193/.237/.284.
Altuve walked 12 occasions and struck out just seven in these first 11 video games spanning 49 plate appearances. In the subsequent 21 video games and 94 plate appearances, he walked just 5 occasions with 18 strikeouts. It’s sort of all fallen aside for him.
A quick Jose Altuve begin changed into a cold stretch, and the underlying metrics do not present a lot hope
At probably the most primary degree, a hitter’s job is to swing on the proper pitches after which hit these pitches exhausting. For the season, Altuve’s chase rate is in the 43rd percentile, which is not horrible and is an enchancment, but it surely nonetheless is not good. His hard-hit charge is within the twenty fifth percentile. His barrel charge is within the thirty eighth percentile. His xBA is .254. His xSLG is .376. There is nothing notably encouraging in these metrics.
Even these numbers are boosted from the primary 11 video games of the season. In these most up-to-date 21 video games, his hard-hit charge is just 34/8 %. His barrel charge is just 4.3 %. His xBA is .231 and his xSLG is .329. If you are on the lookout for some comfort, it is that the anticipated numbers are literally enhancements on the precise numbers. But they’re nonetheless not good and even playable.
As we wrote a couple of weeks in the past, fastballs is giving Altuve fits. Since the new early begin, Altuve has hit just .189 with a .245 SLG on pitches labeled as a fastball, and while you set the minimal velocity to 95 MPH, he is hit just .063 with out an additional base hit. With the typical four-seam fastball velocity at 94.6 MPH and the typical sinker velocity at 93.9 MPH, being unable to catch as much as warmth is a large downside.
Altuve has by no means been a notably adept defender at second base. It’s a part of why the Astros tried to offer him a shot in left area final yr, however that was a catastrophe. He’s back at second base nowand the metrics proceed to color a image of somebody with little or no vary and a weak arm. He’s really fared higher going to his left this yr, however he is been as dangerous as ever going up the center. The protection will be considerably ignored when he hits, but when he is not hitting, there is not a lot left within the profile.
Altuve has struggled on the bases as nicely. Fangraphs BsR stat seems at baserunning runs above common and he is at -0.6 this season. His dash pace is definitely up, however no person will confuse him with being quick. He’s been caught stealing on two of three makes an attempt, and he is already made two outs on the bases, together with getting picked off twice. To his credit score, he’s taking the additional base extra, but it surely’s not sufficient to beat the remaining.
So what’s the remainder of the story for Altuve? That’s one thing we do not know but, however with its tumbling numbers, it is simple to see subsequent to the development we have seen the previous few seasons. He’s gone from a wRC+ of 164 in 2022 to 154 in 2023 to 127 in 2024 to 113 final yr. Now he sits at 105 by way of Sunday, however that is on the legs of his first two weeks. If the development of the final three or so weeks continues, that quantity will proceed to dive and the Astros will have an uncomfortable decision to make on one among their stars and among the finest gamers to ever put on the Astros uniform. The time comes for everybody, but it surely would not make it any simpler when it does.
