Dustin May Is Boosting His Free Agent Stock
On Monday night time at Busch Stadium, Dustin May made essentially the most spectacular begin of his main league profession. The right-hander was good by six and completed with a one-hit, one-walk shutout. He threw 101 pitches. He struck out 9. If it weren’t for Jacob Misiorowski‘s 15-strikeout tour de pressure last Fridaythis may need been the best-pitched sport of the season.
With that gem, May introduced his ERA beneath 4.00 and moved into the NL’s prime 10 in high quality begins and FanGraphs WAR. He owns a 3.38 xERA and a 3.75 SIERA. Only two certified pitchers in both league have a decrease residence run price, a decrease stroll price, and the next strikeout price this season: Cam Schlittler and Christopher Sanchez.
A shutout will juice anybody’s numbers, and never every little thing May is doing proper now could be sustainable. His residence run-to-fly-ball ratio will not keep so low ceaselessly. It’s at present lower than half its price from 2019-25. At the identical time, his BABIP is considerably larger than his profession common, whereas his strand price is markedly decrease. That means he is run into some unhealthy luck to steadiness out his luck. The result’s an identical 3.75 ERA and SIERA. Baseball Prospectus agrees that his “deserved ERA” is 3.77, whereas the ZiPS projection system forecasts a 3.78 mark for him over the remainder of the season. The PitchingBot mannequin suggests the standard of his arsenal interprets to three.85 earned runs per 9. All of these metrics use absurd strategies to succeed in their conclusions, however with regards to May, they find yourself on the similar one: He has earned his success to date in 2026.
May was an honorable point out on MLBTR’s last Top 50 Free Agents ranking. The $12.5MM guarantee he secured from the Cardinals was surprisingly excessive to some, nevertheless it wasn’t a mistake to go away him off the highest 50; In phrases of complete wage, his contract was the 51st largest of the offseason. This winter, May may very well be a lot larger on the listing. Not solely is he wholesome and pitching effectively, however the 2026-27 free agent class is notably skinny. It’s so skinny that Michael Soroka was considered one of five players who simply missed the highest 10 on MLBTR’s latest Free Agent Power Rankings.
Soroka is not simply catching strays right here. I deliver him up as a result of he is an incredibly apt comparability for May. Watch them pitch this yr, and you will not see many similarities between the 2. May leads with a sinker that touches 99 in opposition to righties and a four-seam that touches 99 in opposition to lefties. Soroka’s max velocity is three ticks slower, and his main pitch is an 80-mph slurve. Yet, the 2 right-handers, born 33 days aside in 1997, are extra alike than you would possibly understand.
Their tales are two chapters from the identical ebook. Once star prospects, May and Soroka lived as much as the hype of their debut seasons, just for a sequence of accidents to derail their careers. Finally, in 2025, they each made double-digit begins for the primary time since their rookie campaigns. They proceeded to signal one-year contracts (with mutual choices for 2027) in free company. Here are the profession numbers by 2025 that earned them these offers:
- 3.86 ERA, 4.25 SIERA, 21.9% Ok price, 8.3% BB price, 46.6% GB price
- 3.85 ERA, 4.29 SIERA, 21.8% Ok price, 8.0% BB price, 47.1% GB price
The first bullet level is May, and the second is Soroka, however I left them unlabeled to drive residence the message. For all intents and functions, the stats are an identical. Soroka has thrown extra innings in his profession, however May has thrown extra just lately. And on a per-inning foundation, these two had been just about the identical pitcher for the primary six seasons of their respective careers.
Through their first 14 begins in 2026, May ranks ninth within the National League in FanGraphs WAR. Soroka is one spot forward, with a lead so small {that a} rounding error might wipe it out. Soroka has the higher ERA, however May has the sting in xERA. Soroka has the decrease stroll price, however May has induced extra floor balls. SIERA favors Soroka, however a lot of the main pitch fashions want what May brings to the desk. ZiPS tasks almost an identical efficiency from every of them for the remainder of the season.
So, if Soroka is on monitor to be considered one of subsequent winter’s prime 20 free brokers, May belongs in that dialog as effectively. Soroka is an even bigger identify, due to the All-Star look, Rookie of the Year runner-up end, and down-ballot Cy Young votes on his resume. All of that’s spectacular, however all of that was seven years in the past. If both of those two nonetheless has an All-Star ceiling, it is likely to be May as an alternative. He throws more durable and boasts an excellent deeper arsenal, with six pitches that he throws no less than 5% of the time. In 2026, solely three beginning pitchers (min. 50 IP) have thrown six totally different pitches no less than that always with a mean fastball more durable than May’s: Dylan Cease, Sandy Alcantaraand Eury Perez. There’s extra to being an ace than excessive velocity and a various pitch combine, and Pérez is all of the proof you want. Nonetheless, these are precious traits – even perhaps precious sufficient to engender a bidding conflict between groups that assume they’ll get essentially the most out of them. Just final winter, the Blue Jays gave Cease $210MM as a result of they noticed the blueprint for a extra constant ace. So far, it is trying like they had been proper. May will not command something near 9 figures, however that solely will increase the variety of groups that is likely to be keen on his providers.
It’s far too quickly to start out writing May’s blurb for the highest 50 listing. When the final Free Agent Power Rankings got here out, he nonetheless had a 4.59 ERA. That was lower than two weeks in the past. Things can change shortly. May even have to remain wholesome, which is way from a given. This is a pitcher who has already turned his UCL twice. The elbow neuritis he suffered final September proved to be minorand the esophageal tear that ended his 2024 season had nothing to do with baseball actions. Still, he has by no means completed 24 begins or 150 innings in a season, on the main or minor league stage. But this may very well be the yr that modifications.
All he must do is keep on the sphere and preserve pitching the way in which he has. If he can pull that off, Dustin May shall be a reputation to observe this winter. That is likely to be a sign of a weak free agent class, however it will even be an enormous accomplishment for a pitcher who has handled greater than his fair proportion of setbacks. With each begin he makes in 2026, May can enhance his free agent inventory.
Images courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
