3 things to watch in Celtics-Sixers Game 4

When you are a title contender, you need to deal with enterprise in the primary spherical. And, up 2-1, the Boston Celtics would certainly love to take management of their first round series with the Philadelphia 76ers by sweeping two video games in Philadelphia.

The Sixers ought to be the determined workforce, having misplaced home-court benefit on Friday evening, unable to get any stops down the stretch of Game 3.

Here are three things to watch for in Game 4 on Sunday (7 ET, NBC/Peacock):

1. The return of Embiid?

Joel Embiid has missed the primary three video games of this collection, recovering from an appendectomy in the final week of the season. But he wasn’t dominated out of Game 3 till about two hours earlier than tip time, and he was listed as uncertain on the preliminary, Game 4 harm report.

The Sixers have been simply 11-10 with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Embiid all in the lineup, together with simply 5-7 towards playoff groups. But they have been at their finest in the common season (plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions) with Embiid on the ground, with the most important affect approaching offense.

Even when he is restricted, Embiid makes the Sixers a greater workforce, and the on-off differential has been magnified in the playoffs. Over his seven postseasons, the Sixers have been an incredible 17.1 factors per 100 possessions higher with Embiid on the ground than they have been with him off the ground.

Sixers playoff effectivity, 2018-2024

OffRtg = Team’s factors scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Team’s factors allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Team’s level differential per 100 possessions

The impact has virtually all the time been there, although these seven postseasons have come below three totally different head coaches, with various supporting casts, and towards a bevy of opponents.

Embiid performed in two games towards the Celtics this season, however each of these have been in October. He was higher (20 factors on 6-for-13 capturing) in the Sixers’ house loss on Halloween than he was (4 factors, 1-for-9) in their opening-night win in Boston.

2. It’s a make-or-miss collection

All three video games in this collection have gone the way in which of the very best 3-point capturing workforce…

• The Sixers shot 19-for-39 (49%) from 3-point vary in Game 2, however are 16-for-58 (28%) over their two losses.

Perimeter capturing means extra for the Celtics, who’ve taken solely 33% of their photographs in the paint, which might be the second lowest price for any workforce in any playoff collection in the final 15 years. They have been the jump-shooting workforce in the common season (41% of their photographs got here in the paint), and so they’ve been much more so in the playoffs.

The Sixers took solely 32 (36%) of their 90 photographs in the paint in Game 2, when Maxey and VJ Edgecombe have been a mixed 11-for-22 from 3-point vary. They dominated the paint in Games 1 and 3, however that success was trumped by the Celtics capturing from deep.

There’s clearly some luck in the small pattern sizes you get in the playoffs, and in all three video games, the profitable workforce has shot higher from 3-point vary than anticipated, given the standard of their photographs, with the most important differential being that of the Sixers in Game 2. The shedding workforce has shot worse than anticipated in all three video games, with the most important differential being that of the Sixers in Game 1.

Overall, the Sixers and Celtics have been about even in the standard of their 3-point makes an attempt, rating proper in the center of the pack (eighth and ninth, respectively) in the playoffs.

The seek for nice photographs will proceed in Game 4, however typically, it is only a make-or-miss league.

3. Can the Sixers get something simple?

One approach to be much less reliant on bounce photographs is to get some simple baskets in transition. According to Synergy monitoring, the Sixers averaged 25 transition factors per recreation in their 4 regular-season conferences with the Celtics.

But they’ve simply 44 transition factors complete (14.7 per game) in this collection. Maxey and Edgecombe are two of essentially the most explosive guards in the playoffs, and the account for 30 of the Sixers’ 44 transition factors. But the Sixers have not been in a position to get them in the open court docket sufficient over these three video games.

On subject is that the Celtics have dedicated simply 12.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, the fourth lowest rate in the primary spherical. And solely 15 (38%) of their 40 complete turnovers have been reside balls, with the Sixers’ 5.5 steals per 100 possessions being (*3*) and down from 9.0 per 100 (seventh highest) in the common season.

If the Celtics proceed to deal with the ball at that degree, it is going to be robust for the Sixers to get their guards out on the open flooring.

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John Schuhmann has coated the NBA for greater than 20 years. You can e-mail him herediscover his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.