Why Lakers’ shooting records in Game 1 could be good news for Rockets
There have not been many surprises in the primary week of the 2026 NBA postseason. The No. 7 and eight groups in every convention superior by way of the play-in match. In the primary weekend of the true playoffs, residence groups received seven of the eight Game 1s — and by a mean of 17.7 factors. Only one recreation all weekend was determined by single digits.
But that single-digit recreation was a semi-surprise, because the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers defeated the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets. Even with Houston’s main scorer, Kevin Durantlacking Game 1, the Lakers have been underdogs at residence as a result of they have been lacking their high two scorers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
Out of 16 NBA specialists from ESPN who picked a winner in the collection, 15 selected Houston.
Yet behind 27 factors from Luke Kennard and a near-triple-double from 41-year-old LeBron Jamesthe Lakers outclassed the visiting Rockets. Houston by no means led by greater than two factors, whereas the Lakers constructed their benefit all the best way as much as 16 earlier than profitable by 9.
That end result could change the route of the collection. And it raised huge questions on a Rockets workforce that could face turnover and roster turnover this summer season if it falls brief in opposition to an injury-wracked Lakers squad.
But on nearer examination, the Lakers’ Game 1 victory may need been a fluke, their obvious domination a mirage. Underlying stats and up to date playoff historical past provide warning indicators for the victorious Lakers — and a cause for calm and persistence for the Rockets — because the squads put together for an important Game 2 on Tuesday.
Let’s discover how the Lakers set a few shooting records in Game 1 — and why, counterintuitively, that may be good news for the Rockets.
Shotmaking versus shot high quality
Despite the absence of Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers’ offense was unstoppable on Saturday. Their efficient subject objective proportion — which adjusts for the additional worth of 3-pointers — was 68.2%. That’s a franchise report in the playoffs, which is saying one thing on condition that the Lakers have performed essentially the most postseason video games of any workforce.
But in accordance with GeniusIQ monitoring, their quantified shot likelihood — which calculates anticipated eFG% based mostly on components resembling shot location and the shooter’s potential — in Game 1 was solely 51.5%. The hole between these two numbers is named “shotmaking,” and the Lakers’ plus-16.7% mark is among the highest on report.
For context, throughout the opposite Game 1s this postseason, no different workforce’s shotmaking was even half as good because the Lakers’.
Game 1 shotmaking
More broadly, the final time the Lakers had higher shotmaking in any recreation — common season or playoffs — was in 2018, which is so way back that their main scorers in that answer have been Isaiah Thomas and Julius Randle. The final time the Rockets allowed such scorching shotmaking was 2019, in their memorable 159-158 shootout in opposition to the Washington Wizards.
And in the postseason particularly, the Lakers’ Game 1 shotmaking ranked ninth out of two,086 single-game performances in the playoffs since 2013-14, the beginning of GeniusIQ’s database. It was one of the best mark for any Game 1 in that span.
Los Angeles benefited from extraordinary teamwide overperformance. Out of eight Lakers who tried a shot in Game 1, seven exceeded their quantified shot likelihood, typically by large margins.
But that is not essentially a constructive signal for the Lakers’ possibilities going ahead.
A historical past lesson
At the identical time that the Lakers have been setting the nets aflame, Houston was struggling with out Durant. Not solely did the Rockets fail to generate many good seems to be on offense, they have been much less correct than anticipated on their pictures.
Houston underperformed its anticipated efficient subject objective proportion by 5.0%, which means the hole between the 2 groups’ shotmaking was a whopping 21.7%. That’s the Thirteenth-highest margin in a playoff recreation since 2013-14 and the second highest in a Game 1.
But the earlier cases of a giant shotmaking disparity ought to be encouraging for Houston.
The report for the biggest shotmaking hole in a Game 1 belongs to the 2016 San Antonio Spurswho used a 25.0% disparity to open the Western Conference semifinals with a 32-point blowout over Durant’s Oklahoma City Thunder. But the shotmaking even came about over the remainder of the collection, and the Thunder upset the 67-win Spurs in six video games.
There are quite a few different examples from the previous decade in which a workforce loved an enormous shotmaking disparity in Game 1 however misplaced the collection anyway. We can go yr by yr: In 2017, Houston beat San Antonio by 27 factors in Game 1 due to a 17.4% shotmaking hole, however the Spurs superior in six video games; in 2018, the Boston Celtics held an 18.5% shotmaking benefit in Game 1 in opposition to Cleveland, profitable by 25 factors, however James’ Cavaliers triumphed in seven; and in 2019, Boston outshot the bucks in Game 1 and received by 22 factors, however Milwaukee received the collection in 5.
And in 2020, the top-seeded Lakers have been on the opposite finish of a shotmaking hole in their playoff opener, as they surprisingly dropped Game 1 in the bubble in opposition to the eighth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. But their luck evened out, and James’ Lakers received the subsequent 4 video games to begin their championship trek.
Teams know to not rely on outlier shotmaking lasting for a number of video games. Reflecting on the 2019 Bucks-Celtics collection a few years later, a Milwaukee entrance workplace member instructed me he’d by no means been fearful, even after his workforce’s Game 1 defeat, as a result of he knew Boston’s single-game shotmaking benefit was unsustainable. Naturally, the Bucks received 4 straight by 16.3 factors per recreation thereafter.
The Rockets may really feel equally after their Game 1 disappointment. Among all groups in all video games this season, the Lakers’ shot high quality in Game 1 ranked in the sixteenth percentile. The Rockets ought to be proud of that defensive effort — even when the Lakers’ present eFG% ranked in the 97th percentile.
The Lakers’ historic overperformance meant they scored 22 extra factors than they “should” have, based mostly on their shot high quality. Without that increase, Houston doubtless would have received the sport.
As it’s, even with these 22 “extra” factors, the Lakers’ last margin of victory was in single digits. That’s uncommon in such a make-or-miss league: For groups with shotmaking gaps of a minimum of 20% in the playoffs since 2013-14, the common margin of victory is 29.9 factors. Those video games are virtually all the time blowouts.
But the Lakers received by simply 9 factors in Game 1. A win is a win, however historical past suggests they need to’ve received by much more given their outlier shotmaking benefit.
Margin of victory for groups with giant shotmaking gaps
Improbable, however not unattainable
To be honest, there can be some sign in the shotmaking noise. For occasion, the New York Knicks snuck a Game 1 win in opposition to the Celtics final yr due to a seemingly unsustainable shotmaking hole — after which did it once more in Game 2 en path to an upset in capturing the collection.
It’s not unattainable that the Lakers will observe that path in opposition to the Rockets. But it’s unlikely.
Beyond the arc, the Lakers have been 10-for-19 (53%) in Game 1, highlighted by an ideal 5-for-5 exhibiting from Kennard. But whereas Kennard is an unbelievable shooter — his 44% profession mark from deep is one of the best amongst energetic gamers — he is nonetheless more likely to miss some 3s because the collection continues. He has now tried a minimum of 5 3-pointers in 241 video games in his profession, and Saturday’s was solely the second and not using a miss.
Similarly, the Lakers have been a wonderful midrange workforce this season, making 49% of their 2-pointers that weren’t in the restricted space, per GeniusIQ. Only the Denver Nuggets have been extra correct. But in Game 1 in opposition to Houston, the Lakers made 65% of these 2-point pictures away from the basket, which is unsustainable over a bigger pattern. The different 15 playoff groups have been all at 50% or worse from these areas over the weekend.
Hot shooting in one playoff recreation is usually random, with no predictive carryover to the subsequent. Teams that outperform their anticipated eFG% by a minimum of 12% in a playoff recreation have a mean shotmaking determine of plus-0.01% in their subsequent recreation in the collection, in accordance with an evaluation of knowledge from GeniusIQ and ESPN Research.
Meanwhile, Houston managed extra replicable statistical classes in Game 1: Because the Rockets grabbed 21 offensive rebounds and nabbed 13 steals in opposition to Los Angeles’ point-guard-less rotation, they tried 93 pictures to the Lakers’ 66. (And it is not as if the Lakers compensated with further free throws; they have been 17-for-26 on the line as in contrast with 17-for-25 for Houston.)
Winning the possession battle so totally was the Rockets’ system for success throughout the common season, and so they appeared set as much as proceed that technique in opposition to LA
Losing Game 1 remains to be a priority for Houston, after all, significantly due to the unusual timing round this collection attributable to all the celebrities’ accidents. Every Lakers win means extra time for Doncic and Reaves to return. And if Durant misses extra time after his shock Game 1 absence, the Rockets could be in bother no matter LA’s shooting; their common shot high quality was even worse than the Lakers’ in Game 1 (though the Rockets rebounded so lots of their very own misses that they need to nonetheless have scored extra).
Before the collection, I predicted the Lakers would be surprisingly aggressive in opposition to Houston in spite of their accidents, as James-plus-shooters lineups have been profitable in the common season. But I do not count on these shooters to stay historic outliers for many extra video games, and Houston’s protection, which tied for fifth in effectivity in the common season, stays strong.
It may not appear that means after Game 1’s mismatch, however the Rockets have a transparent path ahead. That begins with the Lakers’ shooting falling again to earth on Tuesday evening.
