What’s a fair deal for Jalen Duren? We asked NBA execs for their best offer

Jalen Duren is the newest free-agent straggler.

Inside a league that’s more and more fearful about costly rosters, NBA groups are squeezing gamers who hit what purports to be the open market. Duren, a restricted free agent, is that this summer time’s personification of the development.

Organizations personal the appropriate of first refusal on restricted free brokers, and since there may be such consternation about excessive payrolls today, they’re deploying mandatory leverage. With in the present day’s guidelines, not many groups enter the offseason with cap area. The ones who do perceive that extending an offer sheet to a participant of Duren’s caliber is a idiot’s errand, contemplating the Detroit Pistons would probably match it and produce him again, as is their proper.

A restricted free agent, the NBA’s strongest oxymoron, is left in purgatory.

Last offseason, 4 restricted free brokers (Cam Thomas, Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes) lingered late into summer time, simply as Duren has completed in 2026. (The Clippers’ Bennedict Mathurin and the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson are the opposite unsigned restricted free brokers of notice.) Three weeks after the beginning of free company, Duren stays unsigned. Cap area across the league has dried up. The Pistons present the best probability for him to obtain his market worth.

Because he made All-NBA in 2025-26, he’s eligible for a five-year, $287 million contract that will start at 30 p.c of the wage cap. But Duren, who averaged 19.5 factors and 10.5 rebounds on a No. 1 seed whereas incomes All-NBA honors, actually will not earn that a lot, not given the circumstances round him. Front workplaces are fearful concerning the punitive penalties that include crossing the second apron, a payroll threshold far above the luxurious tax. Surpass it, and a crew loses its means to execute most varieties of trades and most sorts of signings. Additionally, he had a disappointing playoffs, together with his scoring, rebounding and capturing effectivity all notably leaving.

But Duren and the Pistons want one another. More than probably, they should compromise. One govt believes he has found a becoming one.

TheAthletic polled 13 members of rival entrance workplaces, asking what they’d take into account a “fair” contract for Duren. Respondents spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate the scenario freely.

The Pistons’ leverage is that no different crew has the cap area to offer Duren a wealthy contract. But Duren’s leverage is that he can settle for the qualifying offer, which might entail returning to Detroit on a one-year, $9.6 million contract and changing into an arestricted free agent subsequent summer time, capable of signal with whomever he’d like in 2027.

“While Detroit might look like they have most of the leverage, given that there are no cap-space teams out there, they’re really f—– if he takes the qualifying (offer) and walks next year,” one respondent to the ballot mentioned. “So, I think leverage is relatively even.”

Two restricted free brokers, Grimes and Thomas, accepted qualifying provides final offseason. Of course, they didn’t assume as a lot danger as Duren would. Detroit’s present offer to Duren is considerably increased than the Brooklyn Nets’ tiny offer was to Thomas. The Philadelphia 76ers did not prolong a formal offer to Grimes.

One govt believes he is recognized the fair deal for Duren and the Pistons: $204.5 million over 5 years.

Here is how he got here to that quantity: Hypothetically, if Duren have been to signal the qualifying offer, then they have been to garner a four-year deal for the 25-percent max subsequent summer time, he would earn $204.5 million over the subsequent 5 seasons. To save each side a headache, the Pistons might pay him that proper now.

Yet, this exec is on the excessive finish of the ballot; $204.5 million, although it’s miles under his max, is the second-most assured cash any of the respondents urged.

The largest proposed deal was $230 million over 5 years. Two executives thought-about $200 million over 5 years to be fair. The two different five-year offers have been for $190 million and $180 million.

The one that urged the $190 million contract referenced the Pistons’ different priorities from earlier in the summertime, after they have been reportedly getting ready to offer guard Austin Reaves a four-year, $177 million contract earlier than he re-upped with the Los Angeles Lakers.

“If they were willing to give a max to Reaves, then they should be willing to do five years, $190 million for a younger player who made All-NBA at a more valuable position,” the respondent mentioned.

The Pistons have a clear cap sheet shifting ahead. They at present sit $46 million under the luxurious tax. The solely massive wage on their books for 2027-28 and past belongs to MVP candidate Cade Cunningham. Various rotation gamers — similar to Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Isaiah Joe — aren’t assured past 2026-27.

Detroit want to preserve its flexibility. After all, relying on how the Duren scenario performs out, it might be a cap-space crew within the coming years.

This is just not the primary time that conversations between the Pistons and Duren have stalled. Just final summer time, Duren was eligible for an extension, however the two sides have been so far apart that they never even got into negotiations.

The 22-year-old responded with a breakout season, taking a huge leap as a scorer, dealing with the basketball extra, assuming the position of the go-to man with Cunningham out with a collapsed lung for the tip a part of the schedule and enhancing as each a paint protector and pick-and-roll defender. Behind him and Cunningham, the Pistons soared to the highest of the Eastern Conference standings.

Then got here a curious playoff efficiency.

Duren’s scoring cratered. His exercise dissipated. A hulking, 6-foot-10 middle who was as soon as unattainable to disregard grew to become uninvolved for lengthy stretches.

The postseason has caught within the minds of some, together with one govt who urged one other oddly particular contract for Duren: $157.1 million over 4 years. Duren’s four-year, 25-percent max would climb $27 million increased than that. Still, this govt mentioned he dinged him for his poor play throughout Detroit’s first-round collection towards the Orlando Magic and second-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Six different respondents urged four-year contracts. Three deemed $140 million fair. One was for $135 million; one was for $130 million, and the smallest hypothetical deal, each in complete cash and common annual worth, was $120 million over 4 years.

“The market has kinda shrunk on him,” the chief who proposed $120 million mentioned. “So, I don’t think you can get above (Walker Kessler’s contract). There’s not a single team that’s willing to do that right now. They could really squeeze (him) and say, $25 million a year, but Duren’s not gonna feel good, which means (they’re) not gonna feel good.”

Of the seven four-year offers, $157.1 million was the costliest. But how did this govt arrive at such an idiosyncratic quantity? It’s the precise midpoint between what Kessler signed for this summer time and the 25-percent max.

The Kessler contract was a widespread reference level for the ballot individuals. Just a few weeks in the past, the fourth-year middle, who is 2 years older than Duren, signed a four-year, $129.4 million contract with the Lakers, who additionally traded two first-round picks to finish the acquisition.

Kessler is a play finisher and rim-protector who has but to contribute to a profitable crew. Duren, from the identical draft class and enjoying the identical place, is already an All-Star.

“It’s more than Kessler got,” mentioned one of many individuals who dubbed $140 million fair. “(Duren is) more available and proven. (It’s) in a similar range to (Houston Rockets center) Alperen Şengün, who I view as an All-Star caliber center but not someone who is a consistent year-in and year-out All-Star. And (it’s) slightly below (Rudy) Gobert, who is/was an All-NBA defender.”

The entrance workplace staffer who urged $130 million over 4 years did so as a result of it was precisely in step with the contract for the Lakers’ new middle.

“I can’t see him signing for less than Walker, yet I don’t see why Detroit needs to move beyond that either,” he mentioned.

As just lately as solely a few years in the past, it was commonplace to dole out big contracts to younger, star-level restricted free brokers. The league adjustments quick.

The kind of max contract a participant is eligible to obtain relies on how lengthy he is been within the NBA. Before his seventh season, he could make as much as 25 p.c of the wage cap. Seven-to-nine-year vets could make as much as 30 p.c of it. Guys who’ve been round for 10-plus years can earn as much as 35 p.c.

There are a few exceptions, together with Duren.

Reaching All-NBA in 2025-26 made Duren eligible for the 30-percent max, the five-year, $287 million contract that he actually will not ink. His 25-percent max, the one which groups as soon as would hand to younger stars with out a lot pushback, can be value $239 million over 5 seasons. Over 4 years, it might earn him $185 million.

But the tradition round these offers has modified. Last summer time, the Oklahoma City Thunder negotiated two core items of a reigning champion, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, all the way down to the 25-percent max on extensions after their third seasons reasonably than letting them enter restricted free company after their fourth years. (Williams’ beginning wage would have risen to 30 p.c had he certified final season.) The Rockets, who’re infamous sticklers in most of these moments, bartered Şengün all the way down to a contract that began at 22 p.c of the cap.

Less than two weeks in the past, 22-year-old celebrity Victor Wembanyama went that direction on his ownagreeing to the 25-percent max, although the 30-percent one would have been a no-brainer for the San Antonio Spurs. In the second-apron period, Wembanyama wished to offer his organizational flexibility.

So, gamers in Duren’s scenario at the moment are taking much less. Organizations are providing much less. And an All-Star like Duren is left in limbo.