The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando’s pick
The Memphis Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic on June 15, 2025, in change for 4 unprotected first-round picks in 2025 (Yang Hansen), 2026, 2028, and 2030, a first-round pick swap in 2027, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Cole Anthony. Orlando’s 2026 pick would be the sixteenth general choice.
To put it merely, drafting a participant higher than Bane with this pick will probably be very troublesome.
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Outside of his injury-riddled 2023-24 season and his rookie yr, Bane has averaged a Forty first-place end within the NBA in Basketball Reference win shares. I’ve posted a career-high 7.4 win shares in 2025-26, good for 27th in the leagueplacing him firmly within the high 10 % of gamers within the league.
On common, NBA draft courses produce roughly three to 5 All-Stars. Historic courses like 1984, 1996, and 2003 produced 9 or 10.
Bane will not be fairly on the All-Star degree, however his top-10-percent standing suggests there are roughly six to eight top-50-caliber gamers in a typical draft class relative to the 3-5 All-Star mark. There are 60 gamers drafted annually, and 6 out of 60 match the ten % proportion.
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The 2026 class is considered as doubtlessly historic, headlined by BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer. The depth behind them is notable, too, with one-and-done freshmen like North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., Houston’s Kingston Flemings, and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler all projecting as first-round skills.
Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) dribbles the ball in opposition to UConn Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) within the second half throughout a semifinal of the Final Four of the lads’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
In a draft that initiatives to provide extra good gamers than common, as an instance Memphis must land one of many high eight picks to get a greater participant than Bane. That is clearly extra doubtless with its personal lottery choice than with Orlando’s. But there may be nonetheless a possibility to discover a high quality participant with a later pick, particularly on this class.
in ESPN’s latest mock draftJeremy Woo initiatives the Grizzlies to pick Washington freshman Hannes Steinbach with the sixteenth general pick. Danny Chau’s mock for The Ringer has Memphis taking Steinbach at 16 as effectively.
Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Huskies ahead Hannes Steinbach (6) seems to cross the ball in opposition to Southern California Trojans ahead Ezra Ausar (2) through the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Steinbach’s manufacturing is difficult to disregard – 18.5 factors and 11.8 rebounds per sport – however scouts are break up on him. The primary concern is positional match. He profiles as a tweener between the 4 and 5 and isn’t a dependable defensive anchor. ESPN’s Woo has him ranked 14th overallwhereas The Ringer’s J. Kyle Mann slots him at 22.
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Players being ranked in an analogous vary embrace Alabama sophomore Labaron Philon, Michigan senior Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan junior Aday Mara, and Tennessee freshman Nate Ament.
Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines middle Aday Mara (15) and ahead Yaxel Lendeborg (23) react through the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the lads’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Going again to the highest eight goal, ESPN and The Ringer share these similar 9 names of their high 10 rankings: Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, Arizona freshman Brayden Burries, and Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. It is unlikely all 9 find yourself being one of the best gamers from this class, but it surely does illustrate that whoever Memphis drafts with Orlando’s pick is not going to come from the highest two or three tiers of prospects.
The odds that Zach Kleiman drafts a greater participant than Bane with his second first-rounder are lengthy.
Apr 27, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) shoots through the second half in opposition to the Detroit Pistons throughout sport 4 of the primary spherical of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images
That mentioned, the Grizzlies didn’t commerce Bane in an try to exchange him outright. The determination got here right down to wage cap and apron administration, the full asset package deal Orlando provided, and whether or not Bane’s contract was value it given Memphis’ roster development. As good as Bane is, a five-year, $197 million deal for a 3rd choice is a steep worth to pay. Getting out from below it whereas accumulating the return Memphis did make loads of sense.
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Whether the Grizzlies hit with Orlando’s pick or not, there may be nonetheless yet one more unprotected first-rounder and a swap yr forward. This pick is one piece of a a lot bigger puzzle.
This article was initially revealed on www.si.com/nba/grizzlies/onsi as The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando’s pick.
