Six bets and an Eliminator pick for the first round of the men’s tournament
The 2026 men’s basketball tournament is right here! Throughout the tourney, Mark Zinno will present his finest bets for every round, in addition to his picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator recreation.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and topic to alter.
Thursday’s finest bets
(12) High Point +10.5 (-115) vs. (5) Wisconsin
Game time: 1:50 pm ET
The committee likes to take lower-seeded groups’ strengths and match them up with higher-seeded groups’ weaknesses. That’s what you’ve gotten on this recreation. High Point averages greater than 90 factors per recreation. Of the prime six groups in the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s protection is the worst of them. The Badgers are center of the street in efficient subject objective share protection and 3-point taking pictures protection. High Point will current all kinds of issues for the Badgers.
The Panthers have the nation’s longest present profitable streak at 14 video games. They play with a tone of tempo, and their ball motion permits them to get inside and make straightforward pictures. Defensively, they’re glorious on the perimeter, holding opponents to 31.9% taking pictures from 3-point vary. The Badgers are immensely depending on 3-point pictures falling. High Point forces turnovers at the fifth-highest price in the nation and might frustrate Wisconsin shooters. If there’s a prototypical 12/5 upset this yr, that is it. I believe that is playable all the way down to +9.5.
(2) Houston/(15) Idaho first half OVER 63.5 factors (-105)
Game time: Approx. 10:10 p.m. ET
Sometimes it is nearly the numbers. This first-half whole is so low that two issues have to occur right here: Houston wants to attain fewer than 40 factors and Idaho wants to attain fewer than 25. If just one of these occurs, I believe this will get over. Of course, the Cougars’ protection can shut down Idaho. But there’s shutting down Idaho and then there’s holding a staff to 23 factors (or fewer) in a half, which hardly ever occurs in school hoops. The Vandals take loads of 3-pointers, and they actually need just a few of them to fail to clear 25 factors in the first 20 minutes.
Furthermore, do we actually imagine Idaho’s protection can decelerate a Houston offense that’s 14th in offensive effectivity? I do not.
I do know the Cougars play one of the slowest tempos in the nation, however they need to nonetheless have their manner with the Vandals’ protection sufficient to attain 40 right here. Again, the hazard right here is that Houston may have a double-digit lead and gradual issues down much more, however the Cougars common 38.1 factors in the first half this season. If they hit that quantity, that ought to get us house.
Thursday’s Eliminator pick
I’ve somewhat fear right here about the 14-seed North Dakota State Bison inflicting issues for the Spartans, however Michigan State’s protection ought to do the heavy lifting. I am unable to see a spot I’d use the Spartans once more, on condition that the UConn Huskies are the 2-seed in the East, and it would not even shock me in the event that they did not get to the round of 16.
How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge
Friday’s finest bets
(10) Saint Clare +3.5 (-115) vs. (7) Kentucky
Game time: 12:15 pm ET
Kentucky is the favourite right here primarily based on what appears like solely identify recognition. This recreation ought to be nearer to a pick ’em, in my view. The Broncos are battle-tested, having performed in the West Coast Conference. They have the dimension to compete inside with the Wildcats, rating nineteenth in the nation in offensive rebound share. The Broncos take loads of 3-pointers, and in the event that they even have delicate success in making them, it’s going to put loads of stress on Kentucky.
The key to this recreation shall be Santa Clara’s capability to power turnovers, as they’re twenty second in the nation in turnover share on protection. But Kentucky is superb at taking care of the basketball, so the Broncos should win the turnover battle. Santa Clara can also be the finest free throw taking pictures staff, and that is one thing that may be the distinction in a tightly contested recreation.
(5) Texas Tech -7.5 (-115) vs. (12) Akron
Game time: 12:40 pm ET
Texas Tech shall be with out its finest participant, JT Toppin (torn ACL), however that should not gradual the Red Raiders down right here towards the Akron. The Zips’ numbers are a bit of a farce, as they’ve performed the identical poor competitors that the Miami (OH) Redhawks performed. Whenever Akron performed anybody in the nonconference in the prime 125 in adjusted effectivity margin, they misplaced. So, going through a Texas Tech staff that is twentieth in that class suggests they are going to be overmatched, notably on the perimeter. The Red Raiders are an elite 3-point taking pictures staff, doing higher than 39% of them this season. They ought to feast on a Zips protection that’s 253rd in 3-point taking pictures protection. Akron has been an underdog solely as soon as this season, to the Purdue Boilermakers in a recreation it misplaced by 18. This is not the 12/5 upset spot individuals assume it’s. Lay the factors with Tech.
(10) UCF +5.5 (-108) vs. (7) UCLA
Game time: 7:25 pm ET
UCLA has lined 5 straight video games main into its matchup with UCF in Philadelphia. But the Bruins have struggled outdoors of the Pacific time zone this season. They have just one win in seven regular-season video games, towards the cellar-dwelling Penn State Nittany Lionsand have been favored in solely two video games outdoors the Pacific time zone this season (-4.5 vs. Penn State and -1.5 vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers).
They did handle to win two video games at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago, towards the lowly Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartanshowever they wanted to shoot 56% from the subject and 48% from 3-point vary (their sixth-best taking pictures recreation this season) towards the Spartans to do it. This simply appears like too many factors for this UCLA staff to put and is an efficient “sell high” spot on the Bruins.
(15) Queens staff whole OVER 68.5 (-120) vs. (2) Purdue
Game time: 7:35 pm ET
I hold looking at the numbers, and I am unable to envision Queens not with the ability to rating 70 factors right here. There’s loads of correlation to each quantity right here. Purdue’s staff whole is 94.5. Queens is one of the worst defenses in the nation, so the Boilermakers’ No. 1 offensive effectivity rating ought to have them scoring at a excessive clip, even with a tempo that is 324th in the nation. The extra Purdue scores, the extra possessions the Royals will get.
And Queens can shoot. There’s little question about it. The Royals take a ton of 3-pointers — and they make them. Purdue is not notably stout defensively, coming in 232nd in efficient subject objective share protection and 197th in 3-point taking pictures protection.
The Boilermakers’ tempo is the solely factor that may cease this from going over. In all however one occasion when Queens performed a staff in the prime 200 in adjusted effectivity margin, together with 5 matchups towards Power 5 colleges, the Royals bought to 69 factors. The one recreation they did not was a 41-point loss to the Auburn Tigers the place they scored solely 65 and had their second-lowest subject objective share and their lowest 3-point share this season. That’s how this does not get there.
Friday’s Eliminator pick
The Jayhawks have a tricky attract the East in a bracket that I believe might have loads of carnage in it. But the possible path of St. John’s and then duke as their subsequent two video games makes it extra possible that Kansas could be out early on this tournament.
