Predicting Where the Wolves End

A couple of weeks in the past the Minnesota Timberwolves have been sitting in the six seeds, hovering in that uncomfortable place the place you are ok to consider one thing larger would possibly occur, however shut sufficient to the Play-In line that each loss looks like slipping on black ice.

After a powerful stretch to complete February and start March, the Wolves discover themselves tied for the three spot. That’s a fairly spectacular climb contemplating how crowded the West has been all season. But earlier than anybody begins planning hypothetical second-round matchups or debating which playoff opponent could be “most favorable,” it is price remembering one easy fact about this Western Conference:

Despite their current sturdy play, the Wolves did not precisely dash their approach into the three spot. February set the desk for them superbly. The schedule was comparatively forgiving. There weren’t many heavyweight matchups. It was the form of stretch the place a centered staff might have ripped off a monster run and put some actual daylight between themselves and groups like the Rockets or Nuggets.

Instead, the Wolves did what the Wolves are inclined to do. They dropped video games they should not have. They coasted by way of moments that demanded urgency. They did not fairly stack the avalanche of wins that the schedule supplied them. But to their credit score, they largely turned issues round, permitting them to achieve floor and, for a short second, maintain sole possession of that coved three seeds.

The actual query now is not how they received there.

It’s whether or not they can keep there.

Wolves Fans Are Optimistic

We not too long ago requested the Canis Hoopus trustworthy the place they suppose the Wolves will in the end end in the standings, and let’s simply say Minnesota followers are feeling fairly good about issues.

The overwhelming majority of respondents consider the Wolves will in the end maintain the three seeds. A smaller chunk expects them to slide barely to fourth. A really tiny proportion sees them touchdown in fifth.

And the sixth seed? The Play-In?

Whether it is justified or not stays to be seen, however it does mirror one thing actual about this staff. The Wolves have earned a sure stage of belief over the previous two seasons. They’ve constructed a status for getting stronger late in the 12 months, constructing momentum heading into the postseason, after which delivering when the lights get brilliant. Two straight Western Conference Finals appearances have a humorous approach of doing that.

Still, optimism is one factor. The math of the Western Conference standings is one other.

What It Will Actually Take

Obtaining the three seeds goes to require navigating a closing schedule that appears rather a lot much less pleasant than February’s.

The Wolves will face a handful of heavyweight Eastern Conference video games towards the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics. Those video games do not instantly impression the Western Conference race when it comes to knocking rivals down a peg, however they nonetheless matter. Lose these video games and out of the blue you are handing free floor again to the groups chasing you.

But the actual swing video games lie nearer to house.

The Wolves nonetheless have a last showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers, the identical staff they bounced from the first spherical of the playoffs final season. That sport carries some symbolic weight, however extra importantly it is one other alternative to create separation from a Western Conference opponent that will love nothing greater than to tug Minnesota again into the standings site visitors jam.

The most vital dates remaining on the calendar are the two video games towards Houston, which could in the end decide the total race for the three seeds. If the Wolves drop a kind of matchups, they hand the Rockets the tiebreaker, probably giving Houston a transparent path to leapfrog them into the standings. But if Minnesota wins each? Suddenly the Rockets begin wanting rather a lot smaller in the rearview mirror.

Those video games are basically four-point swings in the standings. Win them and the Wolves achieve floor whereas Houston loses it. Lose them and the reverse occurs.

And hovering in the background, as all the time, is Denver. The Wolves have already performed all 4 video games towards the Nuggets this season, and sadly for Minnesota the outcomes did not go their approach. Denver took three of the 4 conferences, which suggests they maintain the tiebreaker. That issues. In a Western Conference the place the standings are packed tighter than rush-hour site visitors, these tiebreakers can turn out to be extremely invaluable.

The Wolves cannot change the head-to-head outcomes now. That ship has sailed. The solely technique to maintain Denver at bay is the old style approach: Stack wins.

It’s not glamorous. It’s not difficult. But it is the actuality of the scenario.

The Road Trip That Could Decide Everything

If there’s one stretch of video games that might decide whether or not Minnesota climbs the subsequent run to the three seeds or slides again into the standings chaos, it is the upcoming highway journey.

First comes that matchup with the Lakers, a staff Minnesota has but to beat. Then the Wolves face two groups which have given them issues at instances this season, the Clippers and the Warriors. Both have confirmed able to knocking Minnesota off on nights the place the Wolves drift or lose focus.

And then, simply to maintain issues fascinating, the highway journey concludes with the fourth and last matchup towards the Oklahoma City Thunder. No clarification wanted there.

If the Wolves stumble by way of that four-game gauntlet, they may very simply discover themselves sliding again towards the fifth or sixth seed. But in the event that they maintain serve and stroll away with three wins out of 4? Suddenly the standings begin wanting rather more steady.

That’s the distinction between surviving March and really proudly owning it.

Can the Wolves Grab the Three Seed?

The potential is there. The roster is deep. Anthony Edwards is taking part in at a famous person stage. The protection nonetheless has Gobert anchoring the paint. The supporting forged has confirmed able to stepping up when wanted.

But potential solely issues if it interprets into wins.

The Western Conference is not going at hand Minnesota something. The Rockets are gazing them down. The Nuggets are lurking. The Lakers are a staff with the potential to go on a random heater at any second.

.And if that playoff race alone is not sufficient pleasure for you, nicely… there’s all the time one other approach so as to add a bit adrenaline to the journey. You can all the time head over to FanDuel Sportsbookthe place followers can wager on Wolves video games.

Because if this Western Conference race has taught us something, it is this: The subsequent few weeks are going to be must-watch basketball.