Phillies’ Andrew Painter is good and other hitters stink, too

Three mantras to ease Phillies followers’ troubled minds after a 3-3 begin to the season…

1) Embrace the optimistic uncertainty of the unknown

Baseball historical past is stuffed with pitchers who had nice MLB debuts and not-so-great careers. That stated, I do not assume it is too early to rethink the Phillies’ upside within the wake of Andrew Painter‘s stellar performance against the Nationals on Tuesday.

Consider the latest monitor file of pitchers who allowed fewer than two runs with eight or extra strikeouts in at the least 5 innings of their main league debut. Since 2023, 11 pitchers have accomplished it (in addition to Painter). Eight of them made their debut earlier than September. Of these eight, 4 completed the season with an ERA underneath 3.00. Two of the exceptions had been Bryce Miller (Mariners) and Logan Allen (Guardians), each of whom had a big optimistic affect.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter sure looked like the one who was promised in his Phillies debut

A fast breakdown:

Tanner Bibee, Guardians, 2023

Final numbers: 2.98 ERA, 142 innings, 25 begins

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 8 (CLE 7-1)

Nolan McLean, Mets, 2025

Final numbers: 2.06 ERA, 48 innings, 8 begins

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 5 (NYM 3-2)

Logan Allen, Guardians, 2023

Final numbers: 3.81 ERA, 125⅓ innings, 24 begins

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 8 (CLE 6-2)

Bryce Miller, Mariners, 2023

Final numbers: 4.32 ERA, 131⅓ innings, 4.32 ERA

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 13 (BE 10-3)

Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 2024

Final numbers: 2.91 ERA, 173⅓ innings, 29 begins

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 12 (CHC 10-2)

Kodai Senga, Mets, 2023

Final numbers: 2.98 ERA, 166⅓ innings, 29 begins

Starts of 5+ innings, lower than 2 runs: 12 (NYM 11-1)

The solely two exceptions had been Mick Abel final yr for the Phillies and Jordan Wicks in 2023 for the Cubs. But neither began greater than eight video games, and most of them got here on the finish of the season.

Plus, you have got the Brewers’ Logan Henderson, Red Sox’s Connelly Early and Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage, all of whom excelled in September (Yesavage into October).

So, what can we are saying about Painter?

Last yr, the Phillies led the majors with 65 video games the place a starter went 5 or extra innings and allowed one or fewer runs, as Painter did on Tuesday. They went 57-8 in these video games. In other phrases, they gained solely 39 video games when a starter did not go 5 or extra innings and allowed fewer than two runs.

Another key level: Ranger Suarez had 14 begins of 5 or extra innings and fewer than two runs. Only Christopher Sanchez had extra (17).

Is Painter prone to make the Phillies’ rotation higher than it was final yr? No. But the man we noticed on Tuesday has the potential to make them almost as good, assuming a full season from Zack Wheeler. That’s vital, given the state of the Phillies’ offense.

Speaking of which…

2) The solar all the time rises larger after April

Half the Phillies’ fan base is able to put the lineup on the following Artemis mission and wave goodbye. That’s comprehensible. My favourite truth from the primary week of the season: 8.6% of the Phillies runs have been scored by ghost runners. They’ve scored 23 total, two of which got here within the tenth inning, when a crew begins with a runner on second base. The Phillies have additionally scored 5 of their runs within the ninth inning and two within the eighth. Which means they’ve scored solely 14 runs within the first seven innings. Not good. But perhaps not as “not good” as you may assume.

April baseball requires some perspective. Although 23 runs in six video games is not ultimate, it additionally is not wildly past the pale in comparison with the remainder of the league. As of Thursday, half the groups within the majors scored 25 or fewer runs. The Mets and Dodgers each scored 23 runs of their first six video games. The Braves scored 24. The Padres scored a whopping 19.

There’s an honest probability certainly one of that group of groups finally ends up representing the NL within the World Series. There’s no purpose to assume the Phillies are any much less prone to be that crew now than they had been per week in the past.

» READ MORE: Way-too-early Phillies thoughts: A big swing for Bryce Harper, importance of Adolis García’s start, and more

3) Comparison is not all the time the thief of pleasure

Bo Bichette entered Thursday 3-for-27 with no further base hits, one stroll and eight strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker had been a mixed 7-for-41 with 14 strikeouts, no residence runs, and one further base hit. It’s robust to attract any conclusions about Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarberwho’re a mixed 7-for-47 with 15 strikeouts and three residence runs. Nor about Alec Bohmwho is 2-for-21 with a house run after an offseason the place lots of people hoped he would get replaced by Bichette. For what it is price, Nick Castellanos it is 2-for-12 with three strikeouts and a double. Feel free to attract conclusions about that one.

One week into the season, the story is the identical as each April. A crew will find yourself the place its roster says it ought to. Nothing in regards to the first week can change that, apart from harm. If you need to fear about one thing, look ahead as a substitute of again. Starting April 13, the Phillies have a 13-game stretch with two collection apiece towards the Cubs and the Braves.