Men’s NCAA Tournament bubble watch: Indiana, Cincinnati, SMU are in for a long wait

Editor’s be aware: This article is a part of the Bracket Central collection, an inside have a look at the run-up to the lads’s & girls’s NCAA Tournaments, together with evaluation and picks in the course of the tournaments.

After a brutal remaining weekend of the common season for the bubble, issues went from unhealthy to worse on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Teams that had been anticipated to win (Indiana, Texas) took losses to sub-.500 groups. Others in coin-flip conditions (Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal, Cincinnati) additionally couldn’t get the job carried out. SMU took an appropriate loss to Louisville, however the Mustangs are hanging on by a skinny thread.

Only Santa Clara made a really impactful optimistic transfer close to the reduce line. The Broncos’ WCC semifinal win over Saint Mary’s plus the struggles of the remainder of the at-large pool out of the blue have Herb Sendek’s group in nice form. Other squads gained (Auburn), however these weren’t needle-moving outcomes.

The total failure of the at-large candidates has many followers clamoring for extra mid-majors. Perhaps the late outcry for Belmont or Stephen F. Austin will attain the committee’s ears, however sadly, these groups stay fringe at-large hopefuls. The finest likelihood to get extra groups in from exterior the ability conferences is by way of bid stealers: the MAC, the Atlantic 10, the Mountain West and perhaps even the American, if prime seed South Florida makes after which loses in the title sport.

To sum all of it up, the present bubble is a mess. Florida State lurks as a potential celebration crasher if it may stun Duke in the ACC quarterfinals, whereas Oklahoma has surged into the image, as nicely. The committee could have its palms full.

In a unusual flip of occasions, we’ve awarded Lock standing to Ohio State regardless that the Buckeyes haven’t performed since our final version. Fortunately for Ohio State, the variety of bubble candidates which have misplaced already this week make it nearly unimaginable for the Buckeyes to get handed by sufficient groups to knock them out of the sphere. Plus, Iowa beat Maryland, which implies Ohio State can’t take a unhealthy loss in the Big Ten event. Congratulations to teach Jake Diebler and firm — typically, letting others fail is the appropriate transfer!

Check out the primer beneath earlier than you dive in; lots of the key phrases shall be repeated all through the article. And for a projection of the particular bracket, right here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.

• Teams are listed alphabetically inside their sections.
• Locks are groups which have reached a 100% likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends each present resume and forward-looking projections.
• Should Be In groups are a few wins from Lock standing and not likely in a lot hazard of lacking the dance proper now.
• In the Mix groups are the true bubble instances.
• On the Fringe groups are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
• Resume metrics are backward-looking and attempt to measure a group’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are extra vital for choice to the sphere.
• Quality metrics are forward-looking and try and challenge future efficiency. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are extra influential for seeding.

Movement

Up to Lock: Ohio State
Up to Should Be In: Santa Clara
Up to In the Mix: Oklahoma
Added to On the Fringe: Florida State
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Stanford, Boise State
Dropped from On the Fringe: None

Current Totals

Locks: 38
Should Be In: 3
In the Mix: 13
On the Fringe: 9

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.) North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Florida State, Stanford

In The Mix

California (21-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 54)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference SOS, poor high quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: It goes to be a long, tense airplane journey dwelling to Berkeley after Cal went one-and-done on the ACC event in Charlotte. The Bears had been overwhelmed soundly by Florida State, stopping any likelihood of Mark Madsen’s group enhancing its case with a postseason run. We won’t say the Bears are completed because of the carnage throughout them, however this looks like a steep uphill path to the bracket, and Cal is out of climbing gear.

NC State (20-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall robust metrics, stable Q1/Q2 document.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an terrible This autumn loss.
Looking Ahead: NC State did what Stanford couldn’t: Beat the mighty titan that’s Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack picked a nice time for their most effective offensive efficiency of the season per Bart Torvik, exploding for 98 factors on simply 66 possessions. The protection stays leaky, however the vital half was avoiding a unhealthy loss (the identical unhealthy loss that knocked Stanford out of consideration). Mission completed, so Will Wade’s group is wanting way more secure. Next up is a swing at Virginia, the place a win would lock the Wolfpack into the sphere.

SMU (20-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero unhealthy losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, 9-13 vs. prime two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Like many different bubble rivals, SMU misplaced on Wednesday. The delicate distinction for the Mustangs: They obtained a considerably useful win towards Syracuse Tuesday, they usually arguably had the “best” loss on the bubble, falling to a surefire NCAA Tournament group in Louisville. That issues as a result of it is going to create far much less drag on their resume metrics, permitting them to “rise” just by falling much less. They stay an exceedingly questionable case proper close to the reduce line and could possibly be topic to the whims of bid stealers.

Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 50)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor high quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies couldn’t beat Wake Forest for a second time in three weeks, falling in time beyond regulation as beginning ahead Amani Hansberry surprisingly needed to sit attributable to harm. That’s solely a Q2 loss, however the Hokies wanted to achieve floor in Charlotte. Instead they slid incrementally backwards. Barring a mini-miracle olive department from the committee, Virginia Tech won’t hear its title referred to as on Selection Sunday.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State

In the Mix

Cincinnati (18-15, 9-9); WAB rank: 66)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, robust high quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a This autumn loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Quite merely, that isn’t going to be sufficient. Cincinnati desperately wanted a run on the Big 12 event, however the Bearcats misplaced to UCF in the second spherical. They didn’t rating a level in the ultimate 2:17 of regulation and misplaced in time beyond regulation, seemingly dashing their hopes of clawing again into the NCAA Tournament with a late season rally. Their resume metrics merely are not ok at this stage to realistically anticipate an at-large bid.

Big East

Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

Seton Hall (20-11, 10-10; WAB rank: 57)
Profile Strengths: Not a lot, proper now.
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, just one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: A fast look on the “Profile Strengths” line tells the story of the place Seton Hall stands after arising brief towards St. John’s final Friday. The Pirates can’t actually dangle their hats on a single side of their profile, which implies they are bordering on auto-bid-or-bust. Would a Big East event title sport look, that includes wins over Creighton and St. John’s, be sufficient? Shaheen Holloway’s group must win each video games and discover out.

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC

In The Mix

Indiana (18-14, 11th of September; WAB rank: 51)
Profile Strengths: Two glorious high-end Q1A victories, no unhealthy losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 7-14 towards the highest two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If different bubble groups are fading from view, then Indiana is outright sprinting away. The Hoosiers merely can’t cease dropping. They dropped six of their remaining seven video games, together with two to sub-.500 Northwestern (at dwelling and on a impartial courtroom), and are now barely clinging to life. The Hoosiers’ profile simply doesn’t have sufficient juice to encourage any kind of confidence. Their solely hope is that extra bubble groups lose, zero bid stealers lose, and perhaps the committee even feels unhealthy for leaving Darian DeVries out of the sphere final yr, when DeVries’ West Virginia group was a surprising exclusion.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Missouri, Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Missouri (20-11, 10-8; WAB rank: 40)
What They Need: The Tigers missed a golden likelihood to lock up a bid on Saturday, dropping in time beyond regulation to Darius Acuff-less Arkansas. Even with that dwelling loss, although, Mizzou stays in stable form because of the carnage that occurred beneath them on the bubble. The Tigers’ clear resume and high-end wins ought to get the job carried out, they usually can seal the deal by taking down Kentucky in the SEC event.

Texas A&M (21-10, 11-7; WAB rank: 38)
What They Need: Texas A&M did what few Bubble Watch squads dared to attempt final weekend: Win a basketball sport. The Aggies wanted three overtimes to do it, however they finally obtained a victory at LSU, and street wins in league play are treasured presently of yr. Texas A&M now has robust metrics, 5 Q1 wins, and nil unhealthy losses. A loss to Oklahoma plus a number of bid stealers might put the Aggies in a squeeze, however given the unlikelihood of that mixture, we are transferring Bucky McMillan’s group up a class.

In The Mix

Auburn (17-15, 7-11; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, 4 Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, manner beneath .500 vs. prime two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Auburn’s victory over Mississippi State on Wednesday was not vital in and of itself. But when nearly everybody else on the bubble loses, merely discovering a option to put one in the win column issues. The Tigers ought to see a enhance in their metrics as a end result. They most likely nonetheless want at the least one win — a 17-16 document can be far too simple of a purpose to go away them out — which implies an upset of Tennessee is almost obligatory. It sounds seemingly the Vols will get fabulous freshman Nate Ament again from an ankle harm, making that process even harder.

Oklahoma (18-14, 7-11; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: Three Q1 wins, no unhealthy losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, middling metrics.
Looking Ahead: Cincinnati has gotten almost the entire public consideration as a “formerly 11-12 overall team that has snuck its way into the bubble picture,” however Oklahoma deserves the identical consideration. In reality, the Sooners’ resume numbers are higher than these of the Bearcats, they usually have a barely higher Q1 document. The Sooners’ SEC document will trigger some angst, however it’s seemingly all moot if they don’t beat Texas A&M on Thursday.

Texas (18-14, 9-9; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and high quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: On Monday, we mentioned all Texas wanted to do was beat Oklahoma over the weekend to maneuver up a class. The Longhorns didn’t oblige. On Wednesday, all they wanted to do was beat 12-19 Ole Miss to bump themselves previous the remainder of the fading bubble. Again, the Longhorns didn’t oblige. They misplaced 5 of their remaining six video games and now should wait in a chilly sweat till 6 p.m. ET on Sunday night whereas cheering ardently towards any and all bid stealers. Texas is a true fringe case.

The Rest

Locks: Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: Santa Clara
In the Mix: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Belmont, Nevada, South Florida

Should Be In

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 37)
What They Need: The essential factor the Broncos want at this level is restricted bid stealers. They placed on a robust displaying on the WCC event, beating Saint Mary’s for a big Q1 win after which competing with Gonzaga for 40 minutes (they led at halftime). The metrics appear like that of an NCAA Tournament group. So long because the bubble doesn’t constrict severely (MAC, A-10, Mountain West surprises), Santa Clara ought to be in the event for the primary time since 1996.

In The Mix

New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: 8-7 vs. prime two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Lobos gave it 40 minutes of all-out effort, however they got here up simply brief at Utah State to overlook out on forcing a three-way tie atop the league to finish the common season. That additionally marked New Mexico’s second lack of the week, and the skinny margins of the bubble knocked the Lobos additional down the S-Curve. They await San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals however had been rooting for Boise State as an alternative of the Spartans on Wednesday evening; beating the Broncos would have really registered as a significant end result.

San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs stopped their slide on Saturday, edging out UNLV at dwelling to clinch the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West event. They most likely want an look in the championship sport to have a shot at an at-large, together with what could possibly be a “loser leaves town” showdown with fellow bubbler New Mexico in the semifinals. But first, SDSU should beat Colorado State, which simply knocked off the Aztecs in late February.

VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: No unhealthy losses, aggressive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: VCU’s Friday win at Dayton aged extremely nicely as the remainder of the weekend performed out, and the Rams are in surprisingly stable form after the mud has settled. The Rams have now gained 13 of their final 14 and enter the A-10 event because the league’s clear hottest group because of Saint Louis’ alarming fade. That means the Rams have a cheap path to the auto-bid in Pittsburgh, which might exterminate any lingering bubble issues.

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