Iran’ War news Tehran Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf On How To Make Money From Trump’s Mood Swings

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has a protip for traders following the conflict with Donald Trump: When US indicators transfer markets, guess the opposite method.

In a March 30 submit on X, Ghalibaf described pre-market cues from Washington as a “setup for profit-taking” and a “reverse indicator.”

His message: “If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.”

The remark lands as international markets swing sharply on each flip in messaging from Donald Trump on Iran, usually reversing inside days, though the sample relies on latest episodes somewhat than a proper statistical file.

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is usually only a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator.

Do the other: If they pump it, brief it. If they dump it, go lengthy.

See one thing tomorrow? You know the drill.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 29, 2026

A latest sequence exhibits what Ghalibaf means.

Around March 22 to 23, Trump stated talks with Iran have been “going very well” and delayed potential strikes on its vitality infrastructure. The sign pointed to de-escalation. Markets reacted immediately. US shares jumped on aid whereas oil costs fell as merchants priced in decrease threat to produce, based on market information and contemporaneous stories.

That is the type of transfer Ghalibaf is warning about. LIVE UPDATES

The narrative advised tensions have been easing and costs moved rapidly. But his framework questions whether or not that first response ought to be trusted.

Instead of chasing the rally, a dealer following his logic would have a look at the identical transfer and take the other aspect. That means shorting equities into the surge and shopping for oil after its drop, on the idea that the underlying battle had not been resolved-an assumption that may show fallacious if de-escalation truly sticks.

Days later, the image shifted.

Trump returned to tougher warnings, together with threats to Iranian infrastructure, even whereas persevering with to discuss negotiations. At the identical time, Israeli strikes on Tehran and drone interceptions in Saudi Arabia introduced the battle again into focus.

Markets flipped.

Equities offered off as traders moved to security. Oil emerged once more as fears over provide disruptions returned.

That reversal sits on the core of Ghalibaf’s argument. Early “good news” pushed shares greater and oil decrease. Later developments pulled each in the wrong way. A dealer who light the primary transfer would have been aligned with that swing on this occasion, though related setups is not going to all the time resolve the identical method.

Its broader declare is that early indicators can briefly calm markets, giving giant gamers time to exit or reposition earlier than tougher developments drive costs.

Data circulating amongst merchants seems to again that view, though a lot of it comes from market surveillance, non-public flows and political scrutiny somewhat than accomplished authorized instances. One dealer stated Ghalibaf’s take reflections on what’s already occurring beneath the floor.

“He is right and the data supports him completely,” the dealer stated, pointing to heavy positioning earlier than key bulletins. The dealer cited $580 million in oil futures traded minutes earlier than Trump’s preliminary peace feedback, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures transferring forward of a ceasefire sign, and new prediction market bets positioned days earlier than the announcement. These figures come from public commerce information and watchdog analyzes which have raised suspicions however haven’t but resulted in findings of wrongdoing.

The identical dealer pointed to an Israeli Air Force main charged with utilizing categorised info to guess on a prediction platform and to regulatory friction within the US as indicators that info movement, not simply occasions, is driving trades.

Indian inventory markets crashed on Monday, with the Sensex and Nifty every falling round 1.5% and lengthening steep losses from earlier weeks amid mounting fears of a wider West Asia battle. The sell-off adopted stories within the Washington Post that the US is making ready for weeks of floor operations in Iran, and a press release from US Central Command on X that 3,500 Marines and sailors have been deployed to the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli, in what’s described because the area’s largest American navy buildup in twenty years.

Ghalibaf warned that Iranian forces have been “waiting for American soldiers” and would “rain fire” on any US troops trying to enter the nation, accusing Washington of “signalling negotiation in public” whereas secretly plotting a floor assault, based on Iranian state media.

For on a regular basis traders, the takeaway is straightforward. The first transfer on a headline might not be the true transfer. For merchants, the implication is sharper and riskier. When markets react rapidly to political indicators, the chance could lie in questioning that response, not following it.