2026 NFL projected sack leaders: Top 50 pass rushers
Myles Garrett broke the single-season sack record final season, however a distinct edge rusher leads our 2026 sack projections.
That participant? The Detroit Lions‘ Aidan Hutchinson, who our statistical mannequin forecasts to rack up 12.5 sacks this season.
This is the sixth consecutive year we have run our sack forecast for veteran pass rushers based mostly on a statistical mannequin that makes use of details about a participant’s previous efficiency and present circumstances to challenge what number of sacks he’ll document within the upcoming season. The mannequin’s inputs embody:
Sack totals and charges for every of the previous two seasons
Projected snaps, through ESPN’s Mike Clay
Pass rush win price, which makes use of information from NFL Next Gen Stats
Past sack charges for the quarterbacks on every participant’s schedule
Team win totals from the betting market
Where a participant aligns
Age
Only defensive linemen and edge rushers are included, and rookies are excluded. Also, although we recently upgraded our pass rush win rate metrics, this evaluation options the legacy model of that metric. Future years will incorporate the upgrades. These projections usually seem low. However, they’re a projection of a participant’s imply consequence in 2026 — together with accidents. If we might assure well being for each participant, everybody’s forecast could be a lot greater.
Now, let’s dive into the 2026 projections, wanting on the prime 10 forecasts, plus just a few different notables (together with one outdoors the highest 50). There’s additionally a top-50 listing under.
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Projected top 10 | Full top-50 list
More notable projections to watch
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 12.5
2025 sack complete: 14.5
This is the second straight yr that Hutchinson leads our sack projections, regardless of having by no means really led the league in sacks. But every part traces up for him to have an enormous season.
Two years in the past, he had a prolific first 5 video games (7.5 sacks, 35% pass rush win price) earlier than struggling a season-ending leg injury. Last season, Hutchinson stayed wholesome and delivered 14.5 sacks in 17 video games. If something, this projection is likely to be underrating Hutchinson, as a result of whereas his legacy pass rush win price was above common, he moved as much as fourth amongst edge rushers within the up to date model.
The different massive purpose Hutchinson’s forecast is so sturdy is enjoying time. Unlike many pass rushers, Hutchinson hardly ever comes off the sphere. He performed 91% of his attainable defensive snaps final season, a a lot greater price than gamers similar to Will Anderson Jr. (66%) or Nik Bonitto (62%).
Hutchinson has two different perks working in his favor, the standard of the Lions’ total staff (eighth in ESPN’s Football Power Index) and the benefit of their schedule (second best, based on FPI). That means Detroit must be forward usually, which is when sacks most regularly happen.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 11.1
2025 sack complete: 12.5
The X issue is how a lot Parsons will play. Clay has Parsons projected to play 619 snaps this season, barely down from the 669 he performed in 14 video games in 2025 — which signifies a slight improve in snaps per recreation if Parsons have been to return again from his knee injury in Week 6 and play the remainder of the season. Still, it is unbelievable that Parsons is projected to overlook a 3rd of the season but nonetheless manages to have the second-best forecast.
How?
If we evaluate him to Myles Garrett, Parsons had a greater pass rush win price in every of the previous two seasons, extra sacks per recreation two years in the past, is greater than three years youthful and is on a staff that blitzes extra. But if there’s one overriding purpose Parsons is ranked right here, it is the mixture of win charges alongside his earlier double-digit sack seasons.
Parsons is a grasp of profitable on a down-to-down foundation however has by no means had greater than 14 sacks in a season. But that might occur at any second.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 10.5
2025 sack complete: 12
Anderson emerged as actually elite in 2025, ending second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to associate with his 12 sacks. There’s no purpose to count on a drop-off this season.
Anderson has proved himself the previous two seasons when it comes to sacks and pass rush win price, is younger and on a comparatively good staff (the Texans’ win complete at DraftKings is 9.5, shaded to the over) with a very good protection. He and Danielle Hunter (8.7 projected sacks, twelfth most) make up arguably the NFL’s most fearsome pass speeding duo.
Plus, the Texans get the extra bonus of going through a sack-friendly schedule of quarterbacks that features video games towards Lamar Jackson (9.8% sack price), Justin Herbert (8.8%), Jaxson Dart (8.5%) and Cam Ward (9.4%) twice.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 10.3
2025 sack complete: 14
Bonitto backed up his breakout 13.5-sack marketing campaign in 2024 with 14 sacks in 2025. This season, he will get the good thing about being a part of a Broncos protection that isn’t solely sturdy total (with nice cornerbacks) but in addition blitzes at an above-average price.
If there’s one factor holding Bonitto again, it is enjoying time. Last season, he solely performed 62% of Denver’s defensive snaps and was in solely 60% of the time in clear pass-rushing conditions. That places a ceiling on his forecast. In addition, Bonitto is a participant we is likely to be overrating based mostly on the usage of the legacy win charges, which have been greater on him than the updated version launched every week in the past. Still, it is a mighty sturdy projection.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 10.1
2025 sack complete: 23
Yes, I’m as stunned as you might be that Garrett will not be No. 1 on this listing. Even although I understand how the mannequin works, I nonetheless thought the NFL-record 23 sacks from final season could be sufficient to place him excessive. Not fairly, it seems!
There are three main elements working towards Garrett:
1. He is 30 years outdated
2. The Rams blitzed solely 19% of the time final season, the second-lowest price within the NFL
3. Los Angeles faces a quarterback slate that takes sacks much less regularly than common
That’s sufficient to carry again Garrett’s projection, even coming off a document season wherein he was the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. And his age is a particular issue. While it is attainable Garrett would be the identical sort of elite participant nicely into his 30s, this mannequin considers the drop-off of some earlier edge rushers at this level of their careers.
Do I feel having Garrett fifth is underselling him a bit? I do, particularly because the mannequin will not be contemplating the potential for Aaron Donald unretiring and taking some warmth off him. But there are actual variables which are holding again Garrett’s 2026 sack projection.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 9.7
2025 sack complete: 16.5
Burns has all the time been an excellent pass rusher — and one thing of a pass rush win price darling — and exploded for 16.5 sacks in his second season in New York. And the Giants’ pass rush has gotten even deeper.
Those 16.5 sacks are sufficient to launch Burns, 28, into the highest 10. But he has just a few issues working towards him. His forecast is negatively affected by solely having 8.5 sacks in 17 video games in 2024. And whereas the Giants have a terrific pass rush, they are not anticipated to be a terrific staff. Middling groups do not play with a lead as usually, which suggests fewer determined opponents regularly passing to catch up.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 9.4
2025 sack complete: 2
This assumes that Bosa is wholesome sufficient to play Week 1, which is not a assure proper now. The star edge rusher has been out for many of coaching camp with soreness and tendinitis as he works his method again from a torn ACL suffered final September.
Despite the damage, Bosa’s earlier historical past is sufficient to embody him within the prime 10. In 2024, Bosa recorded 9 sacks and in addition ranked fifth in pass rush win price at edge. And now he is being coordinated by Raheem Morris, whose Falcons staff blitzed on 35% of its defensive snaps final season, the second-highest price within the league.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 9.3
2025 sack complete: 13
Tuipulotu’s upward trajectory continued in a giant method in 2025, his third season within the NFL, as he adopted up an 8.5-sack 2024 marketing campaign with 13 final season.
Tuipulotu has by no means been a prime win price participant and completed nicely under common in pass rush win price final season regardless of his sack complete. That hinders his projection, however does not crush it. There are gamers who constantly document extra sacks than their win charges would counsel, and it is attainable Tuipulotu is considered one of them. Still, not profitable as regularly on a down-to-down foundation caps his upside.
(*50*)
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 9.2
2025 sack complete: 4
Hendrickson had solely 4 sacks in his remaining season in Cincinnati however completed that complete in seven video games due to injuries. He did document a league-leading 17.5 sacks in 2024, which is rather more necessary for his placement on this listing.
He’s additionally a pass rush win price stalwart — he ranked second at edge in 2024. That, coupled along with his prolific 2024 sack complete, overrides Hendrickson’s restricted sack quantity final season and his advancing age (he turns 32 in December).
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 8.9
2025 sack complete: 9.5
Highsmith tops the Steelers’ edge trio in sack projections after accumulating 9.5 sacks in 13 video games. Similarly, his six sacks in 2024 have been completed in solely 11 video games. The mannequin not solely evaluates gamers by their complete sacks in every of the earlier two seasons, but in addition their sacks per recreation, which helps Highsmith.
He can be a comparatively sturdy rush win price participant and faces a good slate of quarterbacks. Two video games towards the Browns seemingly means going through Deshaun Watson, who had a large 12.5% sack price in 2024, Shedeur Sanders (a excessive 9.1% sack price in 2025), or a mixture of the 2. Highsmith may also get two video games towards Lamar Jackson (9.8%), and faces Cam Ward (8.9%), Tyler Shough (8.3%) and Drake Maye (7.8%), who have been sacked at a considerably greater price than the 6.2% common.
Other notable projections
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 7.0
2025 sack complete: 7.5
Oweh is coming off an attention-grabbing season wherein he recorded zero sacks in 5 video games with the Ravens, following by 7.5 in 12 with the Chargers after being traded. Which was the true Oweh?
I’d say … each? Oweh was really recording a robust pass rush win price earlier than the commerce — it simply did not end in sacks. The sacks finally got here as soon as he went to Los Angeles and Washington paid big money for Oweh to fill their edge-rushing void.
Will he? To a point. Oweh has demonstrated a capability to win on a play-to-play degree and might ship sacks. And ending twentieth on this listing is strong, even when the 7.0 forecast does not really feel superb. But Washington followers must be life like. Oweh is an efficient pass rusher, however not a terrific one. At $24 million per yr in right now’s cap surroundings, that is primarily what they paid for.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 7.0
2025 sack complete: 4
This is a bullish forecast for a participant coming off a four-sack season — particularly as a result of the mannequin doesn’t explicitly contemplate draft capital (Carter was the third total decide in 2025) in its computations.
But what it does see is a younger participant who had a top-10 pass rush win price. That’s sufficient to generate a robust quantity regardless of being on a below-average staff with a defensive coordinator who did not blitz a lot final season. I would not be shocked if Carter is within the prime 10 of the sack leaderboard come January.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 6.9
2025 sack complete: 11
Simmons is the highest-ranked defensive sort out on this listing. And whereas 6.9 sacks would possibly really feel insulting contemplating how nicely he performed final season, it speaks to how a lot enjoying within the inside reduces sack expectations.
But there are different elements conserving Simmons’ projection in examine. As unbelievable as he was final season — he was a first-team All-Pro and completed second in pass rush win price at defensive sort out — it was the primary yr he registered double-digit stats or completed that top in win price. Plus, being on a nasty staff will restrict his sack alternatives, even when he overcame that final season.
Projected imply 2026 sack complete: 5.6
2025 sack complete: 0.5
After a down 2025 season, Lawrence was traded to the Bengals from the Giants for the tenth total decide. What form of participant will the Bengals get — the Lawrence of some years in the past or who he was final season? The projections are splitting the distinction.
Lawrence’s sacks fell off final season regardless of him enjoying much less nostril sort out than the last few years. But the projections will not completely stop him due to what he has completed prior to now. Plus, the Bengals face the best schedule within the league this season total (which helps their predicted win complete) and the best schedule of quarterbacks when it comes to previous sack price.