2026 NBA playoffs: Key questions, ranking first-round series
It has been a bit of over every week because the begin of the 2026 NBA playoffs, and the first-round series haven’t dissatisfied.
The Los Angeles Lakers failed to shut their series in opposition to the Houston Rockets on Sunday, because the Rockets compelled a Game 5 again to L.A. on Wednesday. The winner of that series will face the winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder–Phoenix Suns series, which could possibly be determined Monday, with the defending champion Thunder up 3-0.
In the East, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons have struggled to seek out their rhythm in opposition to the No. 8-seeded Orlando Magic. Plus, the Cleveland Cavaliers–Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks–Atlanta Hawks series are tied at 2-2.
With some thrilling Round 1 matchups nonetheless forward, our NBA insiders answered the largest questions surrounding every series. ESPN’s Bobby Marks broke down which free brokers have raised or lowered their inventory to date, and analyst Zach Kram ranked the series based mostly on their upset potential.
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Biggest questions: East | West
Ranking every series | Free agency stock watch
Eastern Conference
(8) Orlando Magic lead (1) Detroit Pistons 2-1
Can the Pistons win with out Jalen Duren at his greatest?
The Magic have given the Pistons a style of their very own physicality, stifling protection and opportunistic offense. Outside of the seven-block first quarter and 30-3 third-quarter run that helped win Game 2 and the determined fourth-quarter rally that fell simply quick in Game 3, the Pistons haven’t appeared just like the crew that gained 60 video games this season.
One main purpose is that All-Star large man Duren has been a relative nonfactor who has been outplayed by Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. In Game 3, Duren had 5 blocks however fouled out and completed with eight factors, 9 rebounds and simply 3-for-10 capturing. This is a far cry from the 19.5 factors, 10.5 rebounds and 65% capturing he averaged through the common season. Making issues worse, Carter had an enormous recreation with 14 factors and 17 rebounds, together with eight offensive rebounds, in Game 3. He was such an issue for Duren and Isaiah Stewart that coach J.B Bickerstaff went to Paul Reed early within the third quarter for a spark.
Cade Cunningham wants all the assistance he can get. Bickerstaff, who, together with assistant Luke Walton, sat with Duren for an prolonged time after Friday’s apply, mentioned Duren has not been in a position to get free on pick-and-rolls due to Orlando packing the paint. And the Magic have additional neutralized Duren with a number of gamers collapsing on him at occasions. Without Duren at his All-Star greatest, the Pistons can have a tough time establishing superiority within the paint on each side of the ball. — Ohm Youngmisuk
(2) Boston Celtics lead (7) Philadelphia 76ers 3-1
Is this series over?
It definitely looks like it. Boston has managed the motion all through this series, producing tons of 3s. And outdoors of Game 2’s 13-for-50 exhibiting from lengthy vary, the Celtics are knocking them down. While Sunday’s return of Joel Embiid, lower than three weeks after an emergency appendectomy, was an incredible story, it did not masks the general deficit going through Philadelphia. The Celtics have created a math drawback the 76ers have struggled to unravel.
Game 3, specifically, appeared just like the second when issues swung away from Philadelphia. That was a pitched battle that both crew might win, just for Boston to drag it out with exceptional shotmaking by Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard. Barring an enormous change in fortunes, the Celtics ought to quickly be headed to the East semifinals for the ninth time in 10 years. — Tim Bontemps
(3) New York Knicks are tied with (6) Atlanta Hawks 2-2
Have the Knicks unlocked Karl-Anthony Towns after an up-and-down season?
If Game 4 is any indication, maybe so. Towns was utilized in a means we hadn’t seen earlier than, no less than not en masse. He was working from the excessive publish, dishing and diming (10 assists) to OG Anunoby for straightforward buckets.
But the transfer did not appear intentional — no less than by the best way Mike Brown talked about it postgame — as if it was virtually by happenstance versus a change in mindset that maximized Towns. When he is on, it lessens the Knicks’ dependency on Jalen Brunson‘s offense.
Through 4 video games of the series, Towns’ manufacturing exceeds his profession playoff numbers. Should he get much more touches this series? The never-ending question remains. — Vincent Goodwill
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers are tied with (5) Toronto Raptors 2-2
How will James Harden and Donovan Mitchell reply?
Harden and Mitchell entered this postseason able to rewrite narratives. Neither star has missed the postseason — 17 consecutive years in Harden’s case and 9 years for Mitchell — however neither has gained a championship, with the shortcomings of every typically highlighted throughout their respective groups’ failures. Yet, with an opportunity to grab management of their first playoff series collectively after profitable the primary two video games at house, Mitchell and Harden turned in duds in Games 3 and 4. They mixed for 22 turnovers through the two video games in Toronto, and Harden has completed with extra turnovers than made discipline targets in two straight video games.
Sure, the Raptors have made some changes to show up the strain on the Cavs’ star backcourt and Scottie Barnes has been glorious defensively. But for Cleveland to go on a deep run, Harden and Mitchell want to seek out methods to be extra environment friendly and productive to exorcise their earlier postseason demons. — Jamal Collier
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder lead (8) Phoenix Suns 3-0
Can the Thunder get one other first-round sweep?
To the shock of no person, the Thunder have primarily claimed their spot within the convention semifinals. The solely remaining query is whether or not Oklahoma City can full a first-round sweep for the third straight season. Coach Mark Daigneault has but to lose a recreation within the first spherical, as Oklahoma City has an 11-0 document in opposition to 8-seeds over the previous three years.
The Suns have considerably exceeded expectations this season, incomes a playoff spot when it was all however assumed they’d be sending a lottery decide to the Memphis Grizzlies. Intense aggressive satisfaction has been an enormous a part of the Suns’ success, so Phoenix will do all it may to place up a battle in Game 4. — Tim MacMahon
(2) San Antonio Spurs lead (7) Portland Trail Blazers 3-1
Can the Spurs remove Portland in 5 video games?
San Antonio wants to complete this series if it desires to keep away from one other lengthy journey to Portland and purchase time to heal some nagging thumb accidents to guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper earlier than a second-round series in opposition to Minnesota or Denver.
San Antonio will probably be motivated to deal with enterprise in entrance of its house crowd, which hasn’t seen a series-clinching win since 2017. Victor Wembanyama‘s return from concussion protocol for Game 4 was necessary for getting him again into the stream and physicality of postseason basketball. Wembanyama has been dominant defensively on this series, limiting Portland to 5-of-30 capturing and simply 10 factors every time he is contesting a shot.
Meanwhile, veteran level guard De’Aaron Fox is lastly discovering his playoff groove, coming off simply his third profession postseason outing with a 25-5-5 line. — Michael C. Wright
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves lead (3) Denver Nuggets 3-1
How are the Timberwolves doing this to Denver?
Individual protection from Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. McDaniels has been draped throughout Jamal Murray to the diploma that Denver coach David Adelman has been complaining in regards to the lack of bodily display screen setting from his position gamers, who have not been in a position to hold McDaniels off the Nuggets’ All-Star guard.
It has resulted in an inefficient 33-of-89 capturing series from Murray — 37% total and 26.5% on 3s. Nikola Jokic, in the meantime, hasn’t been in a position to decide up the slack in opposition to the size and physicality of Gobert. Jokic missed all six of his fourth-quarter pictures in Game 4, dropping his series proportion to an uncharacteristic 39.1%. (Jokic is a profession 56.1% converter who as soon as made 63% of his pictures in a season.)
The Timberwolves, in the meantime, are in a first-rate place to make the second spherical however misplaced Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles and do not know after they’ll get Anthony Edwards again after he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee throughout Game 4. — Anthony Slater
(4) Los Angeles Lakers lead (5) Houston Rockets 3-1
What is the urgency for Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic to return after the Lakers’ defeat in Game 4?
After Reaves was upgraded to questionable earlier than Game 3 and once more going into Game 4 however has but to seem within the series as he recovers from a Grade 2 left indirect pressure, will the Rockets’ dominant victory to get again within the series push him again into the lineup?
“I think ultimately the athlete has to feel confidence,” Lakers coach JJ Redick mentioned Sunday when requested what elements are being thought-about in Reaves’ return. “And that’s always the final hurdle coming back from an injury, is the psychological component of it.”
Should Reaves play in Game 5, it will be a day shy of a month since he suffered the damage in opposition to the Thunder — nonetheless a speedy restoration contemplating the rehabilitation window of 4 to 6 weeks that sources advised ESPN the damage would require. Would Reaves’ presence, mixed with the house crowd, be sufficient to assist L.A. remove Houston in 5, or have the Rockets discovered one thing that would make the series go the space? And if Houston can prolong the series to a Game 6 or 7, is there any chance that Doncic can return from his Grade 2 left hamstring pressure?
Redick mentioned Sunday that there is no such thing as a replace from the crew on Doncic’s return timeline, which is at the moment unknown. But based mostly on the incremental progress Redick shared Sunday — that Doncic “was able to move a little bit today on the court, which, most of the stuff [before] had been standstill” — it definitely would not sound like he’s shut. — Dave McMenamin
Free company inventory watch
With practically 54% of upcoming free brokers showing within the playoffs, let’s check out gamers who’ve improved or damage their inventory this offseason:
Stock up
Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota Timberwolves
CJ McCollum, Atlanta Hawks
We are seeing how a midseason commerce can affect the playoffs, or, within the case of Dosunmu, develop into the catalyst for a breakout series.
Acquired from the Chicago Bulls on the February deadline, Dosunmu scored 43 factors off the bench within the Wolves’ Game 4 win, the second most by a reserve in playoff historical past. For the series, Dosunmu is averaging 22.8 factors on 64% capturing from the sphere and 52.9% from 3.
Dosunmu is eligible to signal a three-year, $52.4 million extension earlier than June 30. Because he was acquired in a commerce and has Bird rights, Minnesota is allowed to exceed the cap, luxurious tax and apron to re-sign the guard. The Timberwolves are projected to be $27 million beneath the second apron.
The 34-year-old McCollum, in the meantime, has turned again the clock.
Before Atlanta’s Game 4 loss to New York, McCollum had scored the second-most factors by three video games in Hawks playoff historical past. (McCollum is averaging 24.5 factors within the series.)
McCollum, an unrestricted free agent, can signal as much as a three-year, $115.9 million extension by June 30. Atlanta can re-sign him and exceed the cap due to his Bird rights.
Stock down
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
The playoffs ought to have been the place Duren, Watson and Williams improved their restricted free agent standing this summer time.
Duren appeared in his first All-Star Game and is a candidate for All-NBA, however he has seen his scoring lower from 19.5 factors per recreation within the common season to 9.0 within the playoffs. More importantly, Duren is averaging solely 6.7 factors within the paint, down from 14.6 through the common season.
The Nuggets’ Watson and the Suns’ Williams had robust common seasons however haven’t performed within the playoffs due to accidents.
Before injuring his hamstring Feb. 4, Watson was averaging 14.9 factors (17.3 in 40 begins) whereas capturing 49.6% from the sphere and 41.7% on 3s. Watson shot 53% on nook 3s, sixth within the NBA this season amongst gamers with no less than 1,000 minutes.
Williams appeared in a career-high 60 video games this season and performed a big position in Phoenix’s enchancment from twenty sixth to sixth in second-chance factors.
— Bobby Marks
Where each series ranks
One main theme of the primary spherical is parity: Fifteen of the 16 groups have gained no less than one recreation, and 5 of the underdogs have already got a number of wins.
So, at this halfway level of the primary spherical, let’s rerank the series by their upset potential, from the bottom chance for a shock to the best:
8. Thunder 3, Suns 0
Whichever crew confronted the Thunder was at all times going to have the hardest time of any decrease seed within the first spherical, and thru three video games, a Suns upset would not appear any extra possible than when the series started. Phoenix hasn’t led within the second half of any recreation, and the Thunder at the moment are 11-0 within the first spherical prior to now three seasons.
7. Spurs 3, Trail Blazers 1
With a 17-point lead at halftime of Game 4, the Trail Blazers’ odds of an upset had been ticking up. And then San Antonio outscored Portland 73-35 within the second half, all however ending any probability of an upset bid. With Victor Wembanyama wholesome, San Antonio has only one loss since March 1 (to Denver in an extra time basic).
6. Celtics 3, 76ers 1
Despite Joel Embiid’s return, Philadelphia was no match for Boston in Game 4 on Sunday, because the Celtics cruised to a 32-point win. The 76ers’ solely win on this series got here after they shot 49% on 3-pointers, and so they’d be hard-pressed to show in that type of efficiency for 3 extra video games in a row.
5. Cavaliers 2, Raptors 2
The Raptors proved they might win with offense, scoring 43 factors within the fourth quarter of Game 3 to show a two-point lead into a cushty 22-point victory. And they proved they might win with protection, grinding out a 93-89 victory in Game 4 regardless of capturing simply 4-for-30 (13%) on 3-pointers. Cleveland continues to be favored due to its expertise and home-court benefit, however Toronto could be very a lot alive.
4. Knicks 2, Hawks 2
Before this series started, I picked the Knicks to win in seven, so that they’re proper on observe for that end result after splitting the primary 4 video games. New York ought to nonetheless be favored to advance, as its two wins had been by a mixed 27 factors, whereas Atlanta’s victories had been every by a single level. But the Hawks have settled on a powerful six-man core, of their 5 starters plus Jonathan Kuminga, whereas the Knicks’ rotation stays unsettled — notably with regard to Mikal Bridges, who has averaged simply 7.3 factors within the series. Atlanta’s upset probability is unquestionably nonetheless in play.
3. Magic 2, Pistons 1
In 2003, the top-seeded Pistons fell behind 3-1 within the first spherical in opposition to Orlando earlier than staving off the upset with three consecutive wins. They may want the same comeback this 12 months. Not solely do the Magic have a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded Pistons, however the outcomes do not seem like a fluke. The Magic have earned their two wins and managed a lot of the series; they’re lastly wholesome and searching just like the contenders so many anticipated them to be this season. All 5 Orlando starters are averaging double-digit factors on this series, whereas solely three of Detroit’s are.
2. Timberwolves 3, Nuggets 1
On the one hand, the Timberwolves are only one win from their second upset of the Nuggets in three years. And the Nuggets look misplaced after two noncompetitive losses in Minnesota: Nuggets X issue Aaron Gordon is damage, and the Wolves have bottled up Denver’s league-best offense.
But then again, Minnesota must get that final win with out Anthony Edwards, who’s out for a number of weeks after hyperextending his knee in Game 4, and with out Donte DiVincenzo, who tore an Achilles in Game 4. So Minnesota is favored to drag off the upset, simply due to its place within the series, nevertheless it will not be simple with out the crew’s whole beginning backcourt.
1. Lakers 3, Rockets 1
Although the Lakers are the No. 4 seed and the Rockets are the No. 5 seed, this could nonetheless register as an upset. Oddsmakers and pundits largely anticipated a Houston win on this series due to accidents to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. But now Reaves is approaching a comeback whereas Houston’s main scorer, Kevin Durant, is damage, and the Lakers want only one extra win in three tries to advance. Factor within the Lakers’ home-court benefit, and so they now have the most effective odds of any first-round underdog.
— Zach Kram
