How Ian Happ’s Small Changes Can Make a World of Differences – Cubs

Ian Happ he has been a a lot-maligned participant over the course of his tenure with the Cubs. I’ve personally written about him a few occasions, together with once this offseasonand eleven last fall. Happ does not deserve a lot of the animosity thrown his means; he is a actually good baseball participant. Even on Opening Day, a fast looking of reddit had me discovering posts complaining about him hitting within the 3-gap.

The Cubs misplaced two of three over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Between the disappointing outcomes and the Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner extensions, Happ’s large weekend form of flew below the radar. The Cubs’ left fielder hit two residence runs, had three hits general, and was one of the standouts offensively. In reality, he’s probably owed a home runas a flyout that he smashed in Thursday’s Opening Day contest would have flown an estimated 113 ft farther had the wind not intervened. That was the biggest climate-associated distinction tracked within the Statcast Era.

Underlying his first weekend have been some encouraging indicators for the 31-yr-outdated, who will flip 32 later this summer season. The age issues right here. As we have gotten increasingly more knowledge publicly obtainable to us by Statcast and Baseball Savant, one factor has change into clear: 32 is roughly the age once we start to see a league vast development of bat velocity decline. This decline is then extra pronounced later. Bat velocity is an indicator of energy and exit velocity, so dropping bat velocity is not notably good.

Despite standing proper on that dreaded doorstep, Happ has seen a noticeable enhance in bat velocity to this point in 2026, averaging 74.6 mph on his swings, up from 71.4mph final yr. Not solely is it up, however his present numbers would mark a profession-finest bat velocity. Obviously, it’s extremely early, however that is an encouraging signal.

Diving deeper, there seem like some small adjustments in how Happ has arrange on the plate, notably from the appropriate facet. While he is a little deeper within the field each left-handed and proper-handed, the distinction is extra pronounced from his proper-handed stance. Another change together with his swing towards left-handed pitching? He’s a bit extra open. The first picture is from his 2025 knowledge, whereas the second is from his 2026 to this point.

Any tweaks towards lefties can be welcome for a hitter who hasn’t been notably nice towards them for the previous few years. From 2023 by 2025 he is acquired a 102 wRC+ towards southpaws. Compare this to his 125 wRC+ towards righties, and you may start to see the distinction. A 102 is not horrible, however it additionally is not wherever close to nearly as good as Happ has been towards righties. Change is required, and it appears as if there could also be a change that the outfielder has labored on.

To see this variation in observe, look under at that fly ball that he ought to have hit for a residence run, wind not withstanding. Cionel Pereza left-handed reliever with the Nationals, will get a 96-mph fastball in on the fingers of Happ within the higher third of the zone. Happ is ready to clear his entrance facet and get his barrel to it. He cannot management the wind, however as a result of he is simply a little extra open, and a little off the plate, he is discovered the flexibility to get to this pitch and hit it with authority. Most days that lands on the road, not in a glove.

Why does this matter? Traditionally, Happ does not do a lot of harm on that pitch. Up-and-in fastballs are something however his power. Last season, he had primarily No success on this space of ​​the strike zone towards lefties. Below is that this pitch from Thursday, superimposed onto a contour chart from 2025 of all Happ’s batted balls with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH towards lefties.

Plainly, that is imperfect; the sport feed Savant supplies shouldn’t be top-adjusted to the hitter, because the 2025 knowledge is (you possibly can see how a lot smaller the strike zone is within the picture towards Perez). Because of this, I think that this pitch is actually greater than it seems right here, however at the same time as displayed, it is exterior Happ’s “power zone” towards lefties from final yr. When we add in that doubtless adjustment, it is fairly obvious that that is one thing he did not do final yr.

I can not say for sure that Happ was in a position to get to this pitch as a result of he is a little farther again, a little farther off the plate, and a little extra open, however all of this stuff would enable him to higher get to that pitch and clear his entrance facet. Add within the enhance in bat velocity, and the small tweaks would seem to offer Happ a bit of a higher platform to hit the ball with authority towards no matter-sided arm he is going through.

Happ has all the time been impressively constant yr-to-yr. While he might fluctuate and go sizzling-and-chilly inside it, you all the time know what you are getting with him by the tip; it is one of its finest qualities. If Happ’s certainly swinging a bit more durable and his delicate changes are going to assist him towards lefties, than maybe he will not be as predictable in 2026—not in a dangerous means, however in a good one. There’s a lengthy season to go, however this will very properly be the most effective model of the change-hitter the Cubs have ever seen.

What do you assume of these delicate adjustments? Do you assume Happ can start to supply higher towards LHP?