How analytics turned Allen Graves from mid-major unknown into a potential first-round pick

For one NBA scout who noticed Santa Clara this season, Allen Graves did not seem like a prospect on the radar for the 2026 NBA Draft. He was conscious of Graves, however the ahead’s sport did not excite him.

But the analytics employees for this scout’s crew raved about Graves, which prompted the scout to take a re-evaluation.

“I came around to agree with our analytics people,” mentioned the scout, who spoke anonymously as a result of they weren’t approved to publicly focus on crew issues. “I don’t feel about it the way they do, but he’s better than I thought he was initially, and that’s a place where analytics and the intuitive eye work together.”

Graves began this season as an unknown massive man coming off the bench at Santa Clara. He redshirted his first season in this system and was an unranked recruit regardless of being the Louisiana Player of the Year as a highschool senior. He has began solely 4 video games at Santa Clara, a mid-major program within the West Coast Conference. His main stats did not stand out, both: 11.8 factors, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per sport.

But Graves is a projected first-round pick in Tuesday’s NBA Draft and will go as excessive as the highest 20 — a rise that one NBA analytics staffer mentioned is an instance of analytics’ rising affect on decision-making.

“Maybe a few years ago, if Graves shows up, he probably wouldn’t have been getting the same push,” mentioned the staffer, granted anonymity in alternate for his or her candor.

The deeper you appeared into Graves’ numbers at Santa Clara, the extra exceptional they turned. Graves averaged 0.9 blocks and 1.9 steals in simply 22 minutes per sport. Of his 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 have been offensive boards, and he had a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. He additionally shot 41.3 % from 3 on 2.6 makes an attempt per sport.

Per 40 minutes, Graves averaged 4.9 offensive rebounds, 3.4 steals, 1.7 blocks and simply 1.3 turnovers.

Add in Graves’ age (19 years previous), and his manufacturing was much more spectacular.

“For a player of his position and age, he grades historically in disruption, steals, blocks,” mentioned the analytics staffer. “He rebounds extremely well and passes the ball really well, all meeting pretty special thresholds. For someone of his age, it just hasn’t really been seen outside players that go on to be really great in the league.”

Last season, Santa Clara emphasised profitable the possession sport, which meant forcing turnovers, getting offensive rebounds and limiting turnovers, all areas through which Graves thrived.

The crew had an inner stat referred to as “rat points,” which graded a participant on how a lot they made an influence on the possession sport, together with field outs, deflections, steals and rebounds.

“I call him the GOAT of (rat points),” Santa Clara director of operations Alan Guillou mentioned. “I think it’s going to be hard for anyone to come close.”

When he was on the ground, Graves gave his crew extra scoring possibilities by creating turnovers on protection and lowering them on offense.

“That’s a big deal. What we’ve seen with the top teams in the league is that they figure out ways to get more opportunities to score the basketball than the other team, and that’s a better reason for success,” the analytics staffer mentioned.

Graves slowly gained consideration all through the season, as a handful of analytics-minded observers on social media found him.

Avinash Chauhan, the director of analytics for the NBA G League’s Mexico City Capitanes, was among the many early voices pushing Graves as a prospect. Chauhan wrote about Graves on his Substackmaking the case for him as a sleeper.

“Everyone’s tapped in with points per game, especially in a reasonably sized conference like the WCC,” Chauhan mentioned. “It was really the fact that he did everything from a hustle standpoint and just from a cognition standpoint. … Those are two of the best indications for sleepers. Those are two things that people consistently find in (draft) models that have very high signal.”

Graves heard the excitement round his analytical profile.

“That’s how I play, so I didn’t really focus too much on it because the more I focused on it, that’s when it started going down,” Graves mentioned. “I was just like, ‘Let me play my game and stop focusing on outside things’ because that’s how I played my whole life.”

When advised about Graves’ method to analytics, the analytics staffer agreed it ought to keep behind the scenes: “You don’t want players to be actively thinking about numbers and how to optimize themselves. You just want them to go out and play.”

Doing the soiled work has all the time come naturally to Graves. His dad instilled in him and his siblings that a very powerful factor was profitable, not scoring.

“He was like, ‘If you can’t win, then you don’t need to be playing the sport,’” Graves mentioned. “So, it’s just whatever you have to do in order to win, whether you go score or whether you gotta create for your teammates or whether you make the hustle plays.”

Graves credited soccer — his old flame — with serving to him develop his general ground sport. He performed quarterback and was a “very slow wide receiver.” He processed the sport, understood angles to make up for his lack of pace and had nice fingers. He stopped enjoying in eighth grade after fracturing his elbow on a toe-tap catch on the sideline.

Stephon Martinez, Graves’ coach within the predraft course of, mentioned Graves would rebound for his older brother, who performed basketball at LSU, who additionally helped him develop a good really feel for the way the ball would come off the rim.

Lastly, Graves’ hand-eye coordination and his knack for problem-solving stem from his love of engaged on vehicles. His dad is a mechanic who runs a automotive store, and Graves grew up working alongside him.

“I just like fixing problems,” Graves mentioned. “It’s just very satisfying for me to figure out the problem and then fix it. It’s just kind of how my brain works.”

Opinions vary broadly on Graves’ draft prospects. He ranks No. 30 in Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Guide and No. 16 on John Hollinger’s top 75 prospects list. Graves ranks extraordinarily excessive in groups’ inner draft fashions, whereas scouts usually have him decrease.

“It’s easy to see the appeal of Graves in the modern NBA, given how much he helps you win the possession battle,” Vecenie writes. “He gets steals. He rebounds, creates second chances and doesn’t turn the ball over. By the time he’s 25 or so, the odds are good that Graves is going to be a useful rotation player.

“But I believe he is coming into the draft a couple of years earlier than he is prepared, and the primary crew that acquires him is not more likely to get probably the most out of him. Graves nonetheless wants to enhance his physique and maximize no matter pace and agility he can. He must proceed to search out his offensive sport, as a result of I do not suppose he is there but as a shooter.”

The scout was asked whether Graves would have been on draft radars if he’d had the same season 20 years ago.

“Because I see Santa Clara, he’d be on my radar, however would he be on the final NBA radar? I do not suppose so,” the scout said. “And I’m not saying that is as a result of I’m smarter than individuals. It’s simply because I appear to see the crew extra usually.”

But Santa Clara associate head coach Ryan Madry believes Graves would’ve found his way to the NBA in any era.

“It’s changed so much, right?” Madry said. “What individuals worth, particularly with the rise of analytics. It’s onerous for me to say. But being round Allen, he would have labored his approach to the NBA sooner or later, whether or not or not that be this 12 months or the next 12 months. It was nice that, due to analytics, you are capable of type of undertaking and establish what he can actually grow to be.”

— CJ Moore contributed to this story.