History says one of these three golfers will win the Masters
The Athletic has dwell protection of the 2026 Masters third round.
In one sense, numbers could be massaged to let you know nearly something you need them to. In one other sense, the numbers at the Masters Tournament often inform the similar story every year. The main at Augusta is uniquely set in its methods, a bastion of custom the place not solely its rituals are laborious to alter, however the possibilities are too.
Just a few examples: It’s very uncommon (three instances in historical past) for a first-timer to win at the Masters. The previous exhibits that the winner can often completely bomb an extended drive. The winner can also be often one of the high 20 gamers in the world, and typically not a long shot. And sure, that’s distinctive in comparison with the different majors.
So, if the numbers are uniquely constant at this match, why not use them to slim the discipline to the probably candidates to win it this 12 months?
Sure, to repeat what we opened with: Numbers could be chosen to learn the author, and we may select any quantity of traits that might forecast completely different gamers. Anything can occur on any given Thursday by way of Sunday, however at the Masters, there are some historic traits that basically stick and assist paint an correct profile of a possible champ.
The 2026 Masters has 91 players teeing it up on Thursday. Let’s take 10 historic traits at Augusta, and slim that discipline of 91 to the probably golfer to don a inexperienced jacket on Sunday.
Picking a Masters winner
Trend 1: No first-timer has gained the Masters since 1979.
Only three gamers have gained the Masters on their first try, and solely one has performed so in the “modern era.” Fuzzy Zoeller, in 1979, was the final to attain this feat. That means if you happen to’re youthful than 47, you were not alive for it. The different two have been Gene Sarazen in 1935 and Horton Smith in 1934. Smith’s win in 1934 was at the first-ever Masters, in order that was a given.
Of the gamers this eradicated, two buzzy names are already out: Jacob Bridgeman and Chris Gotterup. Sorry, guys.
This eliminates 22 gamers: Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ethan Fang (a), Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin,
Harry Hall, Jackson Herrington (a), Brandon Holtz (a), Mason Howell (a), Casey Jarvis, Naoyuki Kataoka, John Keefer, Fifa Laopakdee (a), Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Andrew Novak, Marco Penge, Mateo Pulcini (a), Kristoffer Reitan, Samuel Stevens, Sami Valimaki
2. The final 10 Masters winners ranked inside the world high 25.
For this one, we’re dishonest a bit of bit and utilizing Data Golf Rankings as a result of LIV gamers are included with restrictions in the Official World Golf Rankings.
This is a biggie and eliminates one other 45 gamers: Justin Rose, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitayama, Daniel Berger, Aaron Rai, Nicolas Echavarria, Jason Day, Michael Kim, Corey Conners, Matthew McCarty, Brian Harman, Ryan Fox, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Rasmus Højgaard, Max Greyserman, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor, Sungjae Im, Aldrich Potgieter, Wyndham Clark, Hao-Tong Li, Brian Campbell, Davis Riley, Carlos Ortiz, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Danny Willett, Mike Weir, Bubba Watson, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Sergio García, Ángel Cabrera, Cameron Smith, Vijay Singh, José María Olazábal, Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson
3. Twenty-six of the final 28 winners had a top-30 end at a earlier Masters.
Goodbye to 4 extra: Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren
4. Since 1998, all however one champion made the Masters reduce the 12 months previous to their win.
Another 5: Russell Henley, Nicolai Højgaard, Robert MacIntyre, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim
5. Only as soon as since 2006 has the pre-tournament betting favourite gained the Masters.
Goodbye Scottie. Except it was Scottie who was the first to buck the decades-long pattern, profitable as the betting favourite in 2024. But nonetheless. For this train, a pattern is a pattern.
Eliminated: Scottie Scheffler
6. The Masters hasn’t had a back-to-back champion since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002.
Sorry, Rory. At least I deliberate a fun dinner.
Eliminated: Rory McIlroy
7. Nine of the final 10 winners had achieved a high 10 in one of their earlier three begins.
Being persistently elite, but in addition scorching at the proper time, is vital.
Eliminated: Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama
8. Eight of the final 10 winners had a earlier top-10 end at Augusta.
We did top-30 finishes above, however now we’re attending to the actually elite Augusta arms.
Eliminated: Min Woo Lee, JJ Spaun
9. Sixteen of the final 17 winners ranked inside the high 50 in driving distance the 12 months previous their win.
Augusta is for bombers.
Four extra gone: Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa
10. Thirteen of the final 14 winners had three or extra profession PGA Tour wins.
One extra out: Ludvig Åberg
The ultimate three
So there you might have it. That leaves us with three contenders who match each pattern above as they tee it up for the ninetieth version of the Masters Tournament:
- Jon Rahm (gained it in 2023)
- Bryson DeChambeau (finest end was a T5 in 2025)
- Xander Schauffele (finest end was a T2 in 2019)
