Can a Republican defy Donald Trump and survive? Kentucky voters will decide | US midterm elections 2026
TOt Pee Wee’s Placea bar and restaurant in Crescent Springs, northern Kentucky, biscuits and gravy go for $6 and liver and onions for $14.75. The partitions are adorned with US flags, sports activities memorabilia, amusement machines, a TV exhibiting Fox News and a poster that proclaims: “Let the gays get married. Let the rednecks have their guns. Let the atheists be atheists. Let the Christians be Christians. America is about FREEDOM.”
Sitting on the bar, John Johnson, 78, and his son Lance, 47, are discussing an upcoming election wherein Thomas Massiea maverick congressman, is aiming to show that a Republican can defy Donald Trump and survive. “I’m leaning to Massie because I like his attitude when it comes to being straight up on issues,” says John, a contractor who voted for Trump in 2024. “Him and Trump beat off each other every now and then, but he’s a constitutionalist, he speaks his piece and he’s right a lot of times.”
Kentucky’s fourth congressional district wends its approach from Louisville’s outer suburbs north in the direction of the commuter fringes of Cincinnati, Ohio, and east to the sting of Appalachia. A Republican major election right here on May 19 will pit Massie towards a Trump-endorsed challenger, Ed Gallreina farmer and retired US Navy Seal, in a essential take a look at of the president’s energy.
Massie, 55, is already the exception that proves the rule of Republican politics. While others have capitulated and genuflected to the president over the previous decade, eliciting comparisons with a character cult, the seven-term congressman with a libertarian bent has emerged as ever extra defiant.
I’ve voted towards Trump’s sprawling tax and spending cuts invoice; co-authored laws compelling the justice division to release the Jeffrey Epstein files; sought to revoke tariffs on Canada; and joined Democrats in opposing Trump’s selections to assault Venezuela and Iran with out congressional approval. “Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away,” Massie stated.
Now Trump is gunning for revenge. He has branded Massie a “lowlife”, “moron” and “weak and pathetic”, and even mocked him for remarrying 16 months after the sudden dying of his spouse of greater than 30 years. He told a rally in the district in March: “We’ve got to get rid of this loser. This guy is bad. He’s disloyal to the Republican party. He’s disloyal to the people of Kentucky, and most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America. And he’s got to be voted out of office as soon as possible.”
Two of the president’s most trusted strategists, Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, are main Maga KY, a political motion committee backing Gallrein’s bid to unseat Massie in what Politico you have dubbed “the Beltway v the Bluegrass.”
The final result is way from sure, with early polling suggesting a shut race. One supply within the state Republican occasion stated: “Massie is in trouble,” pointing to his lack of presence within the district and weak floor sport. Others contend that, with spectacular fundraising and the benefit of incumbency, the congressman is nicely positioned at a second when approval for Trump is cratering due to the Iran battle and rising fuel costs.
The race has successfully develop into a stark referendum on the 2 males. Shane Noemthe chair of the Kenton county Republican occasion, stated: “It’s a pick-a-side moment for a lot of members. Congressman Massie has been in office for 14 years and has been a consistent advocate for his platforms. President Trump’s been a known entity since 2016 in the Republican party. A lot of voters are wrestling with: are we with the president, or are we with our congressman?”
The district, with a population of 776,082, is 86% white and has a median household income of $81,874. Trump carried it with two-thirds of the vote in 2024; Massie won the last three primaries with three-quarters of the vote. For many loyal Republicans, the men’s feud has created an agonizingly personal choice.
Steven Doana state representative aligned with Kentucky’s “Liberty” movement, said: “It’s kind of like Mommy and Daddy fighting. You love both of them and you support both of them. But at the end of the day, Thomas has been our guy for a long time and there’s a lot of loyalty here in the district to him. People seem to appreciate that at least we have one honest politician in Washington DC.”
Doan gives short shrift to Gallrein. “Nobody is aware of something in regards to the man, and he is not even working a marketing campaign. The president is actually working the marketing campaign on his behalf. He will not debate; he will not let you know the place he stands on the problems; he is mainly taking the Joe Biden-in-the-basement technique, and that is what he is attempting to run with.”
Some voters admire Massie for his uncompromising rules and willingness to face his floor towards the president on tough points. Back at Pee Wee’s Place, Lance Johnson, who voted for Trump thrice, reasoned: “I’ve coached football and, if every coach agrees with each other, then I think something’s wrong, so there has to be someone who disagrees with something.
“Massie is 90% of the time with Trump. It’s just one or two things that he doesn’t, and I agree with him on those one or two things. I’d like to see the Epstein files come out completely. Everybody that is a part of it needs to be shown.”
In addition, Trump’s stock has failed with some Kentuckians struggling with an affordability crisis. Lance added: “The Iran war could have been handled a lot better. We were walked into it. I drive every day for my work and equipment takes gas. I’ve got two young kids. Groceries have gone up, so it’s been tougher. Everybody is spending more money right now.”
But sitting at a table nearby, another patron was not so impressed by Massie’s stubborn streak of rebellion. Jim Carmichael, 57, who runs a property company, views Massie as a “Rino” (Republican in identify solely) who votes towards the occasion line far too regularly.
“I don’t mind anybody calling things into question, but if you’re the dissenting vote in the party, or if you are the vote that lets the other party win, then I have a problem with it,” Carmichael said. “There had been a few occasions specifically that Massie ought to have voted with the president, and he did not, and it had no impact. He was doing it simply to make a level.
“Sometimes there’s a greater good, right? Your point’s been made, so why do it? It’s fine if he wants to stand on that principle, more power to him, because he’s going to find him without a seat.”
Danny Ridder, a retired educator, 74, shares the frustration. “Everything that is proposed to him, he votes against it,” said Ridder. “There’s gotta be reason, and he doesn’t share those reasons.”
This vicious contest just isn’t going down in a vacuum. Kentucky, the birthplace of former Republican president Abraham Lincoln, was additionally essential to the early years of the Tea Party movementwhich stirred populist resentment in the direction of authorities spending, and attracted each conservatives and libertarians.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentuckyson of former congressman Ron Paul, was elected in 2010 with Tea Party backing and often adopts libertarian positions, including opposition to overseas military interventions. Massie won his seat in 2012. Meanwhile Senator Mitch McConnell, once a personification of the Republican establishment, has himself shown an independent streak by bucking Trump in recent years.
Steve Vossa political scientist at the University of Kentucky, noted that research has shown the fourth congressional district is the only part of Kentucky where people identify as midwestern, rather than southern. “When the Tea Party arose in roughly 2010, it was northern Kentucky, as with the rest of the midwest, where that movement was concentrated,” he said.
Massie plays up to the image of rugged individualism. In 2021, he was criticized after sharing a Christmas photo of his family posing with military-style rifles, just days after a deadly school shooting. His bio on the X social media platform describes him as an “Appalachian American” and “Engineer, Farmer, Inventor” with 30 patents.
Indeed, Massie lives in a self-built, 4,400-sq-ft timber frame home on a 1,000-acre farm in Lewis county, Kentucky. The house is entirely off-the-grid, powered by solar panels, and features a repurposed wrecked Tesla Model S battery and rainwater collection system. He calls it “the Shire”, a reference to the self-sufficient home of the hobbits in JRR Tolkien’s fantasy world. He plays banjo and doesn’t own a TV.
He has been dogged in pursuit of the Epstein recordsdata, working across the aisle with Ro Khannaa Democratic congressman from California. Khanna stated: “He is principled, very brave, good thoughts, quick-witted, prepared to take threat. I’ve a lot of respect for him. He has the whole Trump presidential marketing campaign equipment working towards him in a congressional seat. He is exhibiting unbelievable guts and, when he wins, he’ll be a fair larger nationwide determine.”
But Massie’s rigid ideology commitment could hurt him at the ballot box. Early in his career, Massie refused to help his constituents access federal programs that he opposed, a hardline stance that permanently alienated local business leaders and officials.
Tres Watson, a Republican political strategist and host of Kentucky Politics Weekly podcast, stated: “It’s not fully a Trump-Massie battle. There’s most likely 30% of the district inclined to vote towards Massie due to the way in which he handles his district workplace. When he first got here into workplace, he mainly stated, if I do not agree with this system, I’m not going to assist my constituents entry it.
“He got talked down off that, but your chamber of commerce-type people have always wanted to get rid of Massie. You have the Trump thing, but then you have another set that have long wanted to elect someone else for totally unrelated reasons, so he’s got to watch that flank too.”
Watson nonetheless predicts Massie win, however added: “If he loses, Trump’s going to wave the flag and say that he did it; Trump alone couldn’t have done it. It’s the opponents that Massie’s got, specifically his chamber of commerce Republicans combined with the Trump Republicans.”
The congressman’s defiance has earned him grudging respect from the other side of the political aisle. Linda Vila Passione, 68, a retired teacher originally from New York, said: “I am a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, but some of the stuff that Massie says when it comes to arguing with the moron in charge is right up my alley.”
Massie and Gallrein’s places of work didn’t reply to requests for remark. When the Guardian visited Massie’s campaign headquarters in a squat brick constructing at a freeway intersection in Florence, Kentucky, a message posted on the door requested that questions be despatched by electronic mail. Beside it sat a picket crate containing a stack of Massie yard indicators mendacity the other way up.
