Are the Oilers and Panthers going to be OK?
There’ll be extra than simply bragging rights on the line when the Edmonton Oilers play host to the Florida Panthers at Rogers Place Thursday night time.
Even the most informal hockey followers know that the Oilers and Panthers have met up in every of the final two Stanley Cup Finals, with Florida profitable each instances.
The two groups have shortly constructed up a fierce rivalry that has additionally spilled over into worldwide competitors, with Matthew Tkachuk memorably calling Leon Draisaitl “always the bridesmaid” in a latest Olympic sport.
It took seven video games to resolve the end result of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, with the Oilers battling again from a 3-0 sequence deficit earlier than dropping in Game 7. The subsequent 12 months, Florida received in six video games.
But it appears as if all that high-stakes hockey could have taken a toll on these once-formidable contenders. Entering Thursday’s motion, the Oilers rank seventh in the Western Conference with a middling .558 factors share; Florida is in even worse form, sitting 13 factors again of the closing Wildcard spot in the East.
The final time the reigning Stanley Cup champion missed the playoffs the following 12 months was 2015, when the Los Angeles Kings discovered themselves on the outdoors wanting in thanks to an sudden emergence by the Calgary Flames. Eight years earlier, each the Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes missed the playoffs after reaching the Final in 2006.
It definitely appears to be like like no less than one in all the 2024 and 2025 finalists will fail to qualify this time round, and with the Oilers recently losing Draisaitl for the rest of the 2025-26 regular seasonthey might be extra susceptible to late surges by the Kings, Seattle Krakenor San Jose Sharks. It’s going to be an enchanting stretch drive.
The Panthers have received their championships. The Oilers have not — no less than, not with this core. But does this down season imply the window is closed for these two groups to return to competition?
For Florida, there’s one large elephant not in the dressing room, and that is Aleksander Barkov. Fresh off shutting down the Oilers’ prime offensive stars in back-to-back championship sequence, the huge Finn sustained a torn ACL and MCL during training camp final September and you have got missed the whole 2025-26 season to date. Barkov has resumed skating and ought to be good to go to begin subsequent season, but it surely’s robust to miss that a lot time, particularly so quickly after turning 30.
Barkov is not the solely Panthers participant who has missed vital motion this 12 months. Tkachuk, who stays one in all the most dominant puck-possession gamers in the NHL, has appeared in solely 20 video games after lacking the begin of the 12 months while recovering from offseason surgery. Seth Jones, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen have additionally spent prolonged durations of time on the shelf. All informed, 33 completely different skaters have performed for the Panthers this season.
But the largest and most urgent problem for these Panthers to tackle this summer season is their goaltending, which was an unlimited energy throughout their Stanley Cup runs however has been a significant weak spot this season. The Panthers opted not to transfer Sergei Bobrovsky forward of this 12 months’s commerce deadline, with basic supervisor Bill Zito subsequently stating his desire to re-sign the veteran goaltender.
Bobrovsky will be 38 at the begin of the 2026-27 season, and in 46 video games with the Panthers this 12 months, he has a 24-20-1 report to go together with a .876 save share. It’s secure to say the two-time Vezina Trophy winner is already displaying actual indicators of decline, and after buying and selling Spencer Knight to the Chicago Blackhawks to purchase Jones in 2025, the Panthers do not actually have an outlined succession plan between the pipes.
That mentioned, the Panthers nonetheless have a greater outlook in aim than the Oilers, who made arguably the most ill-advised move of the season again in December after they acquired Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Oilers parted with dependable blueliner Brett Kulak, skilled playoff netminder Stuart Skinner, and a future second-round decide to purchase Jarry, who cleared waivers in January 2025 and has a .855 SV% in 15 video games since arriving in Edmonton.
Sure, it would be a bit charitable to refer to Skinner solely as an “experienced playoff netminder” given his struggles with consistency and giving up dangerous objectives at inopportune instances, but it surely’s unclear why the Oilers considered Jarry as an improve at the place, notably given his unwieldy $5.375-million cap hit by 2028. Penguins followers celebrated GM Kyle Dubas for having the ability to transfer that contract for any semblance of constructive worth. It’s simply one other puzzling transfer for an Oilers workforce that has but to recover from the hump.
Connor McDavid turned up the warmth (and strain) on the Oilers when he signed a two-year contract with the membership again in October. Assuming he stays in Edmonton by the time that deal expires, McDavid may have given the Oilers 13 seasons of his elite-level hockey. But right here we’re, in 12 months 11, and if not for the total weak spot of the Pacific Division and the Western Conference, these Oilers would possibly be on the outdoors wanting in.
We’ve grown accustomed to seeing the Oilers stumble out of the gate in the common season earlier than ramping it up in the second half and steamrolling their opponents in the playoffs. They’ve confirmed to be a extremely resilient workforce with the potential to overcome nearly any deficit. Still, this 12 months’s iteration of the Oilers is way nearer to the league common in anticipated objectives share and scoring-chance differential than in years previous.
McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard are having terrific years, however this workforce’s supporting forged appears to be eroding in actual time. For all the criticism these Oilers have taken about being a one-line workforce, they’d genuinely formidable ahead depth in the 2024 playoffs, with Dylan Holloway, Warren Foegele, Corey Perry, Ryan McLeod, Connor Brown, Derek Ryan, and Mattias Janmark all offering reputable two-way worth. But it wasn’t fairly pretty much as good in 2025, and, with all due respect to Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie, it simply does not really feel even shut to that stage this 12 months, and Stan Bowman’s disastrous swings and misses in free company have damage greater than they’ve helped.
The upcoming offseason looms notably giant for each these groups, though the magnitude of any adjustments in Edmonton is basically depending on how they fare in the playoffs (assuming they make it). Additionally, each the Panthers and Oilers may have to navigate round difficult roster buildings, with the Jones and Darnell Nurse contracts probably standing in the manner of any sweeping retool-type strikes.
Item No. 1 on the Panthers’ to-do checklist this summer season is to lock down a goaltender, and it’s going to most likely be Bobrovsky. From there, they will have to hope for full seasons from Barkov and Tkachuk in 2026-27. Most of their Cup-winning core remains to be intact, however at the finish, the greatest potential is availability. If they’ll make it by subsequent season with out sustaining critical personnel losses, these Panthers might reclaim their former glory.
The Oilers are in a barely higher spot in the standings, however they’ve additionally had their stars in the lineup for many of the season. Their ahead depth is severely missing, their protection is suspect (though it is improved since Paul Coffey returned to the bench), and their goaltending isn’t any higher (however dearer) than it was earlier than. If the Oilers fall wanting the Stanley Cup as soon as once more this 12 months, maybe they change head coach Kris Knoblauch — however in all probability, they will have to make much more adjustments.
We will not be seeing these two groups in the Stanley Cup Final for the third consecutive season. The Oilers might go on one other run this 12 months, however that is wanting extra unlikely with every passing day; the Panthers will simply have to bid their time, get wholesome, and hope for issues to flip round. Sometimes, groups want to spend years wandering by the wilderness earlier than they’re prepared to chase one other championship.
It most likely will not occur in a single day. But, a technique or one other, it’d be unwise to wager towards Barkov, Tkachuk, McDavid, and Draisaitl returning to the largest stage as soon as once more earlier than their careers are over.
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