Patience or Panic: Josh Naylor, Nolan Arenado, Michael Busch

Welcome to Week Three of our Patience or Panic collection! Here, we check out three struggling gamers and supply suggestions on react to their sluggish begins and subpar efficiency. This week, we’re staying on the corners of the infield.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners

Ask anybody what the key sauce of 2025 Seattle Mariners was, and also you’d get completely different solutions: Elite pitching, Cal Raleigh‘s historic marketing campaign. Outfielder Julio Rodríguez would garner some votes. But the dyed-in-the-wool, ear-to-the-ground fan may level out another person: First baseman Josh Naylor. Naylor was such a precedence that he was one of many M’s first signings this winter, re-joining the membership on a five-year, $92.5 million pact.

Now, although, if you happen to requested what’s holding the 2026 Mariners again, there could be one consensus reply: Naylor.

Naylor’s already been visited on this column, however with a bigger pattern measurement and fewer modifications, he is due for a reappraisal. Why? Because Naylor is not simply having a foul begin. He’s not barely under his requirements. He is without doubt one of the worst hitters in MLB. No joke. He is hitting .102/.197/.102 with a .299 OPS and a -5 wRC+. -5! That determine is third-worst in all of baseball! Naylor’s .299 OPS and -0.6 fWAR trail only Marcell Ozuna. It’s, properly, unhealthy.

But what is definitely going incorrect? That’s a tough query to reply. His SO% is in keeping with his profession percentages. He’s truly strolling extra in comparison with final yr. His Barrel% principally checks out. Even his batted ball knowledge is comparable, albeit with a lower in his FB%. In different phrases, every part appears tremendous.

What is not is Naylor’s energy. Naylor’s by no means been a prolific energy hitter, however he is at all times had some pop, with three 20+ residence run seasons in his previous. This yr, Naylor has zero. Zilch. He would not also have a double. His ISO clocks in at .000, tying him for the worst in MLB. He’s like a restaurant in a lonely city: Singles solely.

Yet he should not be. Naylor’s anticipated slugging proportion, in accordance with Baseball Savant, is .338. A quantity far nearer to common. His wOBA and xwOBA additionally present a discrepancy, with the previous being a paltry .138, and the latter being .273. Both of those numbers could be even larger if Naylor raised his batting common. That is the one concern right here. Naylor’s anticipated batting common is .225. A far cry from his present .102, sure, but in addition properly faraway from a .295 common in 2025 and his .308 common in 2023.

The Verdict: Wait this out. All knowledge suggests Naylor is extra unfortunate than he’s unhealthy. It, alongside together with his profession numbers and trajectory, factors to this as a blip; An aberration. Things ought to swing again within the different route. If not, properly, anticipate to see him make a 3rd look on this column.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Going from a former Diamondback to a present Diamondback, let’s speak about Nolan Arenado.

Arenado is one other participant struggling. Hard. The 34-year-old is hitting .180/.192/.200 with a .392 OPS, and a 7 wRC+. It’s not nice. Neither are another numbers: A 25.0 Okay% to a 1.9 BB%, zero residence runs, one extra-base hit.

What’s most regarding is Arenado’s energy. Thought by no means Giancarlo StantonArenado hit 40 residence runs at Coors, and roughly 30 whereas with St. Louis. He was a official middle-of-the-order bat. All whereas nonetheless getting his singles and doubles. These previous few years, singles and doubles are all Arenado has hit. His HR% has dropped year-by-year, his ISO both goes down or solely barely up, and the identical goes for his Hard-Hit% and exit velocity. He has no juice, and in some way, even lower than that in 2026.

Arenado is not barreling balls, hitting them exhausting, or on the candy spot. His bat pace is mediocre. Even Arenado’s protection is lower than it was. In the phrases of Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken.”

Verdict: Run. It brings nobody any enjoyment of saying Arenado’s finest days are behind him. Alas, it is true. The hope was {that a} change of surroundings, a sojourn in Arizona, may change that. It hasn’t. If 2026 is any indication, it will not. Arenado’s worth is in identify solely.

Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Plenty has gone incorrect for 2026 Chicago Cubs to this point: Injuries, unhealthy luck, and a principally inexplosive offense. There are loads of individuals in charge for the latter. For now, let’s take a look at one wrongdoer: First baseman Michael Busch.

Busch broke out in 2025. He hit .261/.343/.523 with a .866 OPS and a 140 wRC+. He has clubbed 34 residence runs, 90 RBIs, and 274 whole bases. Previously acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgershe shortly turned the one which bought away.

Now, the Cubs could not give Busch away. The anticipated slugger is hitting .135/.233/.173 with a .406 OPS and a 25 wRC+. He has zero residence runs, simply three RBIs, and two doubles account for his solely extra-base hits this season. Recently, he was 0-for-his-last-30. He is a fraction of his former self.

The straightforward prognosis for hitters like Busch, energy bats plugged in at first base, is that they are leaning into their very own stereotype. They’re making an attempt to be Albert Pujols, Mark McGwireor Harmon Killebrew. They’re chasing, putting out, and eager to stroll the entire diamond without delay quite than transfer from base to base. That’s not Busch’s difficulty. He’s truly putting out lower than he did in 2025 regardless of an elevated Chase%. He just isn’t making an attempt to play whack-a-mole.

So, what’s he making an attempt to do? The higher query is what Busch is making an attempt and failing to do. When Busch succeeded in 2024 and 2025, he did so with line drives. He carried a 20.5 LD% in 2024 and an improved 22.0 LD% in 2025. And when he made contact, he did so with authority, with common exit velocities of 89.9 and 92.2 MPH. None of that is the case anymore. Busch’s exit velocity is down from 92.2 to 86.5, a complete 5.7 MPH. His LD% can also be in decline, presently at 17.1%. Conversely, Busch has seen his GB% spike from 35.8% to 43.9% this season. He is not placing the ball within the air.

Unlike Naylor, this is not simply unhealthy luck, both. His anticipated stats stand within the seventh percentile or decrease, in accordance with Baseball Savant. Likewise, he is within the thirty third percentile in Barrel%, thirty second in Hard-Hit%, and tenth in LA Sweet-Spot. His complete swing is out of whack. Contrast these numbers with 2025, when Busch completed within the ninety fifth, 76th, and 96th percentiles in those self same classes.

The Verdict: Keep tabs however preserve the religion. Busch is just too gifted and completed a hitter to chop. Odds are he’ll discover himself. Maybe snapping his hitless streak on Sunday would be the spark.