Connelly checks in on the SEC’s launch party and Big Ten’s question marks in Week 4
The first three weeks of the school soccer season have been enjoyable in their very own proper, with mega-surprises — Oklahoma State over Oregon! UMass over Rutgers! — and a lot of groups trying nice one week and iffy the subsequent.
Those three weeks gave us solely 5 ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, nonetheless. Week 4 offers us six.
Top-ranked Texas not solely leaves Austin for the first time this season however has to face a top-15 Tennessee. No. 4 Ole Miss, recent off of its most cathartic win in ages, visits a torrid Florida in The Swamp. Preseason No. 2 Oregon, its margin-for-error diminished after an upset loss, faces a significant go to to No. 12 USC. Early-season darling Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State welcome their first ranked opponent of the season (Missouri). No. 18 Michigan hosts what has up to now been a higher model of Michigan (Iowa). And in the Group of 6 race, Boise State visits Western Michigan — unbelievable timing, contemplating their Week 1 exploits — and Tulsa will get a shot at a second power-conference win.
We may inform in the preseason that Week 4 was going to be massive, however it seems to be even greater than we thought. The season’s shifting into gear! Here’s every thing you must observe.
Note: All instances are Eastern.
SEC’s launch party
In six scattered league video games so far, the SEC has already given us an instant classic (Ole Miss over LSU), a stunner (Kentucky thumping Texas A&M) and, in typical SEC vogue, a trio of one-score finishes.
This week, nonetheless, the SEC will get going in earnest with seven convention video games — 4 ranked-vs.-ranked matchups (Texas-Tennessee, A&M-LSU, Ole Miss-Florida and, surprisingly, Mizzou-Mississippi State), one other that might’ve been one final week (Oklahoma–Georgia), a recreation that has been reliably wild of late (South Carolina–Alabama) and a recreation overloaded with chaos vitality (Vanderbilt–Auburn).
Let’s lean into it.
No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee (midday, ABC)
Arch Manning and Texas had been the sport’s essential characters two weeks in the past with their comeback win over Ohio State. Now Tennessee will get its shot at essential character standing. The Volunteers have blazed by three mediocre-at-best opponents, and regardless of beginning freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon they rank eighth in factors per drive and have been practically excellent in the crimson zone. Jim Knowles’ protection will get burned right here and there however ranks a wholesome fifteenth in factors allowed per drive.
If preseason projections weren’t a part of the SP+ rankings — a horrible thought if you wish to create correct projections, however a great way of taking a look at early type — Tennessee would rank fifth nationally and could be projected eight-point favorites over the Longhorns, who adapt and persevere and play fairly environment friendly ball however permit extra massive performs than they create.
The key right here could possibly be whether or not Texas can power Brandon out of automation mode.
The trait radar above paints a transparent image: Brandon avoids strain by throwing shortly and leaves the pocket if issues do not look proper. Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp might be ready for Tennessee’s automations and may power errors. How effectively Brandon avoids them — and how effectively Tennessee’s run recreation retains him out of obvious-pass conditions — will inform the story. Running backs DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris have been excellent, however Texas’ defensive entrance is the finest they’ve confronted.
End Mariyon Dye and the Vols will harass and hurry Manning, however the Texas run recreation, which has been comparatively atypical (Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown: 4.5 yards per carry), may have an opportunity to interrupt some massive performs — Tennessee ranks 127th in yards allowed per rush and 132nd in yards after contact. Smothers is listed as questionable, however Brown is high-caliber, too.
Current line: Texas -4 | SP+ projection: Texas by 1.4 | FPI projection: Texas by 7.2
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC)
“If anybody in this building is not working their ass off to know that they’re going to play a really good football team that’s really well coached, there’s more wrong with them than I think there is.” That’s what Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding said on Pat McAfee’s show this week, addressing the Rebels’ final entice recreation scenario: After final week’s enormous win over Lane Kiffin’s LSU, they go to Jon Sumrall’s more and more assured Florida staff.
Florida ranks first nationally in factors per drive and rained down 44 factors, 495 yards and 9 positive aspects of 20-plus final week towards an in any other case strong Auburn protection. The secret to coordinator Buster Faulkner’s early success? Running again Jadan Baugh‘s basic awesomeness — he is on tempo to threaten 2,000 yards — and Aaron Philo‘s accuracy. He’s finishing 73% of his passes, and he has considered one of the tightest cross placement charts you may see.
Receivers aren’t straining a lot to catch Philo’s passes, and Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III (mixed: 18.1 yards per catch) are taking them a good distance. Ole Miss ranks ninety fifth in factors allowed per drive, and whereas that common contains video games towards Louisville and LSU, Florida’s assault could possibly be extra explosive than each of these. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels’ offense might need to attain a lot of factors.
They may do exactly that. Brad White’s Florida protection has pulled an honest bend-don’t-break routine, however it’s exhausting to get Chambliss off the subject until you are forcing the problem. The Gators rank simply 137th in stuff price and 82nd in strain price. Even with working again Kewan Lacy listed as questionable, a snug Chambliss wins most monitor meets.
Current line: Gators -3.5 | SP+ projection: Gators by 4.7 | FPI projection: Gators by 1.1
No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This would have been No. 7 vs. No. 9 final week, however LSU fell a little bit after shedding to Ole Miss, and A&M fell quite a bit after a humbling, 10-point residence loss to Kentucky. The Aggies’ all-or-nothing protection fell out of steadiness, giving up six positive aspects of twenty-two or extra yards (and two over 40), whereas A&M’s Marcel Reed averaged 9.1 yards per completion and Rueben Owens II averaged 4.1 yards per carry.
Defense was actually a problem on Saturday, however it’s jarring simply how a lot the A&M passing recreation has fallen off.
The lack of KC Concepcion, with the risk-free explosiveness he supplied, was at all times going to harm, however I did not count on it to harm this a lot. It’s a reasonably dangerous time for the Aggies to face a protection that has been flawless towards any offense not quarterbacked by Trinidad Chambliss. LSU is aggressive and dominant towards the run, and Reed will seemingly be going through a lot of second- or third-and-longs.
The LSU offense is not precisely a world-beater both, nonetheless, and the Tigers have not created a great deal of chunk performs. If you may’t punish the Aggies deep, they’ll power three-and-outs and purchase their offense time. But ultimately Reed must make a giant play. Maybe he is been hoarding them for this recreation?
Current line: LSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.4 | FPI projection: LSU by 4.6
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (7:45 p.m., SECN)
SP+ is sluggish to belief shocking early groups and has subsequently solely bumped Mississippi State as much as thirtieth regardless of the Bulldogs’ torrid begin. That’s why this recreation is projected as a toss-up. But MSU has overachieved towards projections by 19.0 factors per recreation, most of any power-conference staff. The weight of preseason projections drops considerably after your fourth recreation, so MSU is about to rise fairly shortly quickly. Can Mizzou do something to cease both that or Kamario Taylor?
Mizzou is coming off of a serious trap-game efficiency towards Troy, giving up two touchdowns on poor security angles and stalling out offensively with penalties and poor timing in the passing recreation. Austin Simmons fell from eighth to thirty first in Total QBR in a single week, and the Tigers should show these glitches got here just because they had been looking forward to MSU.
Taylor and MSU practically fell off beam final week towards South Carolina, recognizing their hosts a 16-0 lead over the first 20 minutes. But their bend-don’t-break protection held the Gamecocks to subject targets, and Taylor ultimately accomplished six passes of 20-plus yards and bought a 43-yard run from Fluff Bothwell. They nonetheless make loads of errors however overcome them with massive performs. Will that proceed?
Current line: MSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 0.5 | FPI projection: MSU by 6.2
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
This was alleged to be considered one of the greatest video games of the week, however whereas Georgia has held up its finish of the discount, outscoring three weak opponents by a mixed 178-40, OU has scored simply 24 factors in the previous two video games, with John Mateer throwing three picks and taking 5 sacks. The run recreation hasn’t improved, and whereas offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is underneath severe fireplace, Brent Venables hasn’t achieved practically sufficient to repair a long-broken offensive line both. (Injuries have not helped: Left sort out Michael Fasusi, their finest O-lineman, will miss his third straight recreation.)
Barring a miraculous turnaround from Mateer, it is exhausting to think about OU topping even 14 factors in Athens, however the Sooners’ protection stays elite and would possibly train us a bit a few great-looking Georgia offense. Nate Frazier is averaging 8.4 yards per carry, and Gunner Stockton is averaging 11.9 yards per dropback. Can Frazier nonetheless carve out some good areas between the tackles? Can big-play receivers Craig Dandridge Jr. and Sacovie White-Helton (mixed: 15 catches for 297 yards and two TDs) beat good defensive backs, too?
Current line: UGA -14 | SP+ projection: UGA by 13.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN)
The previous two South Carolina-Alabama video games have been remarkably related.
Two years in the past, Bama went up 14-0, gave up a 19-0 run and wanted two scores and a two-point cease to outlive. Last 12 months, the Tide led 14-6, gave up a 16-0 run and wanted two Germie Bernard TDs and a pricey LaNorris Sellers fumble to win. Keelon Russell and the Tide have began the final couple of video games slowly and would welcome a 14-0 begin, however they’re touchdown knockout punches effectively earlier than the closing minutes regardless.
South Carolina certainly dominated Mississippi State early final week however stored settling for subject targets and misplaced after MSU’s offense shifted into gear. The Gamecocks’ run recreation has improved however in all probability will not dent a dominant Bama run entrance, so Sellers will seemingly should make some massive performs. He’s virtually overcorrected in that division: He beforehand took too many sacks in trying to find recreation breakers, and he is settling for shorter throws now, solely his receivers are dropping passes and creating fewer chunk performs.
Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 9.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.2
Vanderbilt at Auburn (4:15 p.m., SECN)
Vanderbilt has underachieved towards projections in all three video games and wanted a miracle to beat NC State last week. The Commodores aren’t giving freshman quarterback Jared Curtis a lot run assist, and the protection has been merely respectable. But they’re surviving and advancing — they’re extra robust than good proper now.
Auburn, in the meantime, is 2-1 and has performed a 17-16 recreation and a 44-39 recreation; Alex Golesh’s Tigers are working with mach-speed tempo and have been good at every thing as soon as. With solely three video games left towards groups exterior the SP+ high 30, they want this one.
Current line: Auburn -9.5 | SP+ projection: Auburn -4.3 | FPI projection: Auburn by 9.3
A seek for solutions in the Big Ten
Has Oregon fastened no matter was mistaken in the first couple of weeks of the season? Is there any likelihood we will belief the Michigan offense or USC protection? Two video games will give us some fairly massive solutions to fairly massive questions in the Big Ten.
1:00
Why Josh Pate believes Jayden Maiava, USC can beat Oregon
No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Two years in the past, Oregon rolled to 13-0 and received the Big Ten regardless of an underwhelming begin, first struggling to place away Jason Eck’s Idaho, then needing a pair of return touchdowns to beat Boise State. In Week 3, the Ducks shifted into gear and by no means seemed again.
This season has begun in related vogue, solely they really tripped up this time when their protection bought flambéed by Oklahoma State. But they obliterated Portland State final week, so now perhaps every thing’s fantastic? USC’s the excellent opponent for serving to us discover out — the Trojans are able to exploiting any remaining flaw in the Oregon protection.
Scoring will not be an issue for Oregon. Even with Dante Moore posting iffy numbers by his requirements, the Ducks have topped 30 factors in each recreation, and Gary Patterson’s USC protection simply put in a dreadful shift at Rutgers, permitting 35 factors, recording solely two tackles for loss and giving up a monstrous 61% speeding success price. (The nationwide common in speeding success price: 45%. They made Rutgers’ run recreation appear to be a top-five assault.)
Despite some ability corps accidents, there’s a likelihood Oregon would possibly bully USC’s protection as many have in current years. But the Trojans nonetheless have Jayden Maiava and thrilling receivers, even with star freshman Trent Mosley seemingly out; Oregon’s cross protection ranks simply 71st in yards per dropback and has allowed 20.4% of completions to achieve 20-plus yards (111th). I belief the Ducks extra, even on the highway (and even having watched the OSU recreation), however this one has monitor meet potential, and Riley has received loads of these.
Current line: Ducks -3 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 0.3 | FPI projection: Ducks by 1.4
No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Say it with me: Playoff Iowa! The Hawkeyes had been supremely underrated final season, ending twelfth in SP+ however shedding 4 video games by a complete of 15 factors. A brand new protection is performing brilliantly, and they play just one staff ranked larger than them in SP+ the remainder of the manner (Ohio State subsequent week). If they win in Ann Arbor, the schedule’s arrange for a run. And they have been higher than Michigan so far.
Iowa leads the nation in factors allowed per possession (0.33) and yards allowed per play (3.2). New starters like linebacker (and small-school Iowa product) Cam Buffington have been spectacular. Michigan simply has the finest offense the Hawkeyes have confronted, however it’s clearly not wonderful. Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines discovered a stunning rhythm in a 35-point second half towards UTEP final week, however that adopted a hideous begin. Even after that outburst, they’re nonetheless 86th in factors per drive. They’ll want to determine a strong run recreation and keep on schedule as a result of Iowa’s cross protection seems nearly as good as ever.
Michigan’s protection can also be wonderful, after all. The Wolverines rank fifth in each passing success price and sack price, and a nibbling Iowa passing recreation in all probability will not do a lot. But a quartet of Iowa working backs led by Kamari Moulton has mixed for 228.3 yards per recreation and 9.0 yards per carry, and Michigan’s protection has been good however not elite towards the run.
Current line: Michigan -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 0.3 | FPI projection: Michigan by 5.3
The Group of 6 video games of the week
The order varies, however SP+ and FPI agree that the high contenders for the Group of 6’s computerized CFP bid are North Dakota State, Boise State, James Madison, South Florida, New Mexico, Tulsa, Memphis and Western Michigan. Two of them meet in Kalamazoo, whereas Tulsa has an opportunity at one other assertion win.
Boise State at Western Michigan (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Boise State went toe-to-toe with considered one of the nation’s most gifted groups (Oregon), then absorbed early uppercuts towards G6 contender Memphis earlier than ending with a 35-3 knockout. Last week, towards a particularly gifted FCS staff (South Dakota), the Broncos battled early glitches however pulled away.
Now comes one other check two time zones away. WMU is 2-1 and got here inside a millisecond of upsetting Michigan. The Broncos are projected MAC favorites, and whereas they struggled a bit towards Rice’s choice, that does not actually apply towards a extra customary BSU assault.
Big performs have been a problem for Maddux Madsen and BSU so far — the Broncos have gained 20-plus yards on solely 5.5% of snaps (one hundred and fifth), whereas opponents are at 10.9% (137th). Explosiveness hasn’t been a power for the WMU offense, and BSU will seemingly win an effectivity contest. But WMU’s protection forces errors, and they will have an opportunity in this Bronco Bowl.
Current line: BSU -7 | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.1 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.9
Tulsa at Arkansas (8 p.m., SECN+)
4:58
Fozzy’s SEC Tiers: Which middle-tier groups are prepared to interrupt by?
Morale in Fayetteville is ridiculously low. After an unimpressive opener towards North Alabama, Arkansas misplaced to Georgia and Utah by a mixed 88-27, and virtually all of their factors got here in rubbish time. The Razorbacks are double-digit underdogs in each remaining recreation after this one, and there is no assure they beat Tulsa both.
Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes is listed as uncertain, however backup Dexter Williams II is skilled, and if Tulsa wins, it’s going to be due to a protection that ranks eighth in factors allowed per drive and utterly shut down Oklahoma State in Week 1. Edge rusher Thomas Davis has recorded no less than one sack in each recreation, and Arkansas permits tons of sacks. If receiver Chris Marshall would not come up massive, I’m unsure the Hogs rating sufficient.
Current line: Hogs -7 | SP+ projection: Hogs by 3.5 | FPI projection: Hogs by 1.4
Week 4 chaos superfecta
We’re as soon as once more utilizing this house to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly massive level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. We bought one final week (West Virginia over Virginia), so we’re 2-for-3 on the season. Let’s make that 3-for-4!
SP+ says there’s solely a 31% likelihood that Penn State (85% win likelihood vs. Wisconsin), Arizona (79% vs. Washington State), Louisville (78% vs. Wake Forest) and Arkansas (59% vs. Tulsa) all win. Let’s both take down a ranked staff or give Tulsa one other massive win!
Week 4 playlist
Here are some extra video games it’s best to take note of if you wish to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.
Friday night
Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana (8 p.m., Fox). Northwestern has topped its SP+ projections by 18.6 factors per recreation — change this week’s projections by 18.6 factors, and we’ve got ourselves a recreation! Indiana sleepwalked for some time towards Western Kentucky final week, however I’m assuming we get a pointy model of Josh Hoover, Charlie Becker & Co. in the Hoosiers’ first actual recreation. The line’s moved towards Northwestern, although.
Current line: Hoosiers -21 | SP+ projection: Hoosiers by 20.6 | FPI projection: Indiana by 18.3
Clemson at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Clemson’s battled storm delays in three consecutive video games, however the Tigers’ expertise paid off towards North Carolina: They trailed by two, and UNC had a goal-to-go scenario, however after a 2.5-hour storm, Clemson pressured a subject objective, then scored two TDs to win. The forecast in Berkeley this week: 60s and sunny. They’ll should beat Cal with out interruptions. Lucky for them, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hasn’t actually gotten going but.
Current line: Clemson -1.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 3.8 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.6
Early Saturday
Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State (midday, Fox). Quarterback Katin Houser and Illinois rank seventh nationally in success price. The Illini protection has struggled, nonetheless: They’re 103rd in factors allowed per possession and 88th in passing success price allowed. That feels deadly towards Jeremiah Smith and the Ohio State offense. Can the guests no less than rating sufficient to make this enjoyable for some time?
Current line: Buckeyes -26.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 21.1 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 25.6
Wake Forest at No. 16 Louisville (midday, ESPN). Extreme bend-don’t-break protection and aggressive passing make Wake Forest a novel out, and Louisville must keep away from a letdown after an necessary win over SMU. But the Cardinals rank thirteenth in success price, and Wake ranks 129th in success price allowed. The Demon Deacons’ protection in all probability bends a little bit an excessive amount of.
Current line: Louisville -13.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 12.2 | FPI projection: Louisville by 11.9
UCLA at Maryland (1:30 p.m., BTN). Maryland’s run protection was robust towards Virginia Tech, however the Terrapins allowed an excessive amount of by the air. That makes them an fascinating matchup towards unbeaten (and cross-country-traveling) UCLA: The Bruins have a brutally environment friendly run recreation, however they’re solely 111th in passing success price. Make this a QB-vs.-QB recreation, and Maryland’s Malik Washington may outshine Nico Iamaleava.
Current line: UCLA -1.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 1.4 | FPI projection: Maryland by 2.5
No. 3 Notre Dame at Purdue (2 p.m., Peacock). Purdue was aggressive towards UCLA, and the Boilermakers’ passing recreation, with Ryan Browne throwing to Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend, is strong. But the protection positive is not providing a lot. Maybe the Irish run recreation can get going now? Even after Nolan James Jr.’s 121-yard efficiency final week, they’re nonetheless simply 131st nationally in yards per carry.
Current line: Irish -27.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 26.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.9
San Diego State at Toledo (midday, CBSSN). Another cross-country recreation. After losses to UCLA and James Madison, SDSU now takes on a Body Clocks Game at 9 a.m. Pacific. Toledo pulled off a miraculous comeback towards Temple final week and is getting a lot of massive performs from receivers Adjatay Dabbs and Rico Bond, however SDSU’s secondary continues to be amongst the finest in the Group of 6.
Current line: Toledo -3 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 0.5 | FPI projection: Toledo by 5.7
Saturday afternoon
No. 15 Utah at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has overachieved considerably towards projections for the final two weeks, and the Cyclones’ protection ranks 14th in factors per drive. Utah has the finest offense they’ve confronted, nonetheless, and ISU will nonetheless have to attain towards the protection ranked sixth in factors per drive. Still, do not be stunned if this one is a ache in the butt for the Utes.
Current line: Utah -8.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 8.7 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.8
Wisconsin at No. 12 Penn State (5 p.m., Peacock). At 56th in SP+, Wisconsin is well the finest staff Penn State has confronted. The Nittany Lions overwhelmed three lesser opponents, but when they’ll run the ball on a strong Badgers entrance, cross effectively with main receiver Koby Howard banged up and decelerate a prolific Colton Joseph-to-Tyrell Henry pitch-and-catch combo, that may inform us quite a bit about their ceiling.
Current line: PSU -10 | SP+ projection: PSU by 16.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.7
TCU at UCF (3:30 p.m., FS1). Without quarterback Alonza Barnett III (hamstring), UCF overwhelmed Georgia State with 304 speeding yards final week. But the Knights will in all probability want extra passing from Keyone Jenkins to attain on a TCU protection that has allowed simply 29 factors in three video games and ranks twelfth in speeding success price allowed. TCU’s offense has rebounded considerably since the Ireland dud towards North Carolina, too.
Current line: TCU -3 | SP+ projection: TCU by 3.2 | FPI projection: UCF by 0.6
Nebraska at Michigan State (5 p.m., BTN). Nebraska hasn’t performed anybody unbelievable however has nonetheless exceeded projections each week. The Huskers are getting robust work from freshman working again Jamal Rule and receiver Jacory Barney Jr. MSU is slowing video games down and taking part in bodily, however Pat Fitzgerald’s Spartans have gained 20-plus yards on solely 3.5% of snaps (131st) and must manufacture many lengthy drives to maintain up.
Current line: Nebraska -5.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 9.7 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.8
No. 25 Houston at Georgia Southern (4 p.m., ESPNU). Willie Fritz led Georgia Southern to an incredible begin in FBS. Now he takes Houston to Statesboro. Lovely. The Eagles have performed moderately environment friendly protection, however Houston ranks fourth nationally in success price, and GSU’s moribund passing recreation in all probability will not be capable of punish a shaky Houston cross protection. Paulson Stadium needs to be hopping for a short time, although.
Current line: Houston -18.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 16.0 | FPI projection: Houston by 16.9
New Mexico at New Mexico State (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). After annoying the hell out of Oklahoma, Jason Eck’s New Mexico now heads to Las Cruces hoping to keep away from a letdown towards working again James Jones and a fired up NMSU. Backs Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley and speedy QB Toa Fa’avae ought to give New Mexico the edge, however this one needs to be awfully enjoyable if you happen to like physicality. I hope they’re nonetheless taking part in for a chili roaster.
132 years in the making. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟏𝟔𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐢𝐨 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞 𝐑𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐫𝐲 is up subsequent #GoLobos pic.twitter.com/fUk9epIIsG
— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) September 24, 2026
Current line: Lobos -11.5 | SP+ projection: Lobos by 18.0 | FPI projection: Lobos by 15.1
Saturday night
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (7 p.m., FS1). These groups have the Big 12’s two most spectacular nonconference wins — OSU over Oregon, WVU over Virginia. OSU’s Drew Mestemaker is absolutely locked in, and the Cowboys’ protection has been higher than I anticipated. But WVU’s cross rush is superb, and it appears WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is in the excellent offense for his ability set. This needs to be considered one of Saturday’s most aesthetically pleasing video games.
Current line: WVU -1.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 2.4 | FPI projection: WVU by 3.4
Kansas State at Cincinnati (7 p.m., ESPN2). Neither of those unbeaten groups has performed a top-80 opponent but, per SP+, however Ok-State has been higher up to now, and quarterback Avery Johnson is doing a strong Collin Klein impression: Ok-State’s head coach was a speeding and third-downs machine for the Wildcats, and Johnson’s offense is at present 14th in yards per carry (no sacks) and first in third-down conversions. Cincy’s offense is environment friendly, too, however the Bearcats’ iffy run protection would possibly wrestle.
Current line: Ok-State -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ok-State by 3.8 | FPI projection: Ok-State by 3.0
James Madison at Old Dominion (6 p.m., ESPN+). After a giant win over San Diego State, James Madison returns to the East Coast to fend off a revenge try. JMU upended ODU’s playoff hopes a 12 months in the past by pulling away for an explosive 63-27 win. The Monarchs are diminished this season, particularly on offense — problematic towards a JMU protection permitting 9.7 factors per recreation — however an aggressive protection may nonetheless muck issues up.
Current line: JMU -6 | SP+ projection: JMU by 10.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 9.1
Late Saturday
Georgia Tech at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 123rd in stuff price and 126th in sack price allowed. The Yellow Jackets’ offensive line play has been a nightmare, and it has restricted alternatives for QB Alberto Mendoza and RB Justice Haynes. Stanford’s protection, nonetheless, ranks 98th in stuff price and 134th in sack price. This is a get proper recreation for considered one of these items; do not ask me which one. (Probably Tech.)
Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.2
Minnesota at Washington (11 p.m., Fox). Injuries have rocked Washington’s offense; quarterback Demond Williams Jr. continues to be making performs, however he isn’t getting a lot assist, and UW ranks seventy fifth in factors per possession with out having performed a top-60 protection. Minnesota’s protection ranks thirty fourth. The Gophers bought rocked by Mississippi State and would possibly wrestle towards the Huskies’ protection. But they might grind this down right into a rock battle, and PJ Fleck has received loads of these.
Current line: Huskies -10 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 9.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 8.7
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the wonderful decrease ranges of the sport. Here are three video games it’s best to monitor.
FCS: No. 12 South Dakota at No. 13 Youngstown State (2 p.m., ESPN+). YSU’s demanding early schedule earns the Penguins one other showcase recreation. After final week’s loss to South Dakota State, they will take on a relative toss-up towards a South Dakota staff that gave Boise State hell.
Both of those groups have the offense — YSU’s Beau Brungard stays an excellent dual-threat, and the USD backfield of QB Austyn Modrzewski and RB Charles Pierre Jr. is amongst the FCS’ finest. Which protection will present out in Youngstown?
SP+ projection: YSU by 1.3.
NAIA: No. 3 College of Idaho at No. 2 Montana Tech (2 p.m., local streaming). This week’s greatest small-school recreation, rankings-wise, can also be considered one of the most reliably thrilling NAIA video games. Average profitable margin in the 2020s: 5.4 factors. Quarterback Caden Young and the visiting Yotes have been a hair higher, however ends Trevor Miller and Cole Graham key a Tech protection permitting 7.8 PPG.
SP+ projection: College of Idaho by 4.3.
D-II: No. 2 Harding at Ouachita Baptist (8 p.m., local streaming). Harding has received 38 of its previous 39 Great American Conference video games; the Bisons’ solely loss in that span got here towards Ouachita Baptist in their final journey to Arkadelphia. The Tigers have not been wonderful this season, however we’re watching this one to both (a) see if they’ll conjure some extra upset magic or (b) watch a relentless Harding wrecking ball in motion.
SP+ projection: Harding by 17.3.