Do NFL superteams usually win the Super Bowl? Will the Rams?

The 2026 Rams are the closest factor we have needed to a preseason superteam in a number of years. Sean McVay’s group was already a well-liked choose to win Super Bowl LXI earlier than the offseason started. But then L.A. traded for Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson, shoring up the secondary at the expense of a possible Super Bowl opponent in the Chiefs. The transfer to draft Ty Simpson as Matthew Stafford‘s successor struck a curious tone, however basic supervisor Les Snead responded with the mom of all high-stakes strikes, trading Jared Verse and three picks to the Browns for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams have turn out to be prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl after their aggressive strikes this offseason. Picking some other staff to win the Lombardi Trophy at this level would nearly require developing with some type of clarification for what occurred to the Rams alongside the manner.

And but, we’ve to look again just one yr to remind ourselves how NFL seasons can play out solely in another way as soon as gamers get on the subject. In 2025, 68 ESPN personalities picked their AFC and NFC champions, together with an eventual Super Bowl winner, earlier than the season kicked off. Not a single particular person picked the Seahawks or Patriots. I predicted the Chiefs and Packers, who mixed for precisely zero playoff wins. Preseason darlings like the Chiefs, Lions and Commanders every missed the playoffs altogether.

Was 2025 only a bizarre yr? And how usually do closely favorited superteams equivalent to the 2026 Rams truly win the Super Bowl? I made a decision to take a extra complete look by means of historical past to get a way of how assured we might be that Los Angeles can be the final staff standing come Feb. 14.

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To achieve this, I’m going to take a look at the 15 largest preseason favorites since 1990 and see how their seasons performed out. I’ll be utilizing the preseason odds compiled at Pro Football Reference from 1990 to 2025 and examine them with the odds posted for this season’s Super Bowl at DraftKings. The Rams have odds of +550 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl, whereas no one else in the league is shorter than +1000. After we alter for the vigorish and convert the betting traces into possibilities, the Rams have an implied 12.5% probability of successful this season’s Super Bowl, placing them 5.1 proportion factors forward of the second-placed Bills and Ravens.

While the absolute quantity could be a greater sense of how the market views a specific staff, I’m going to make use of the latter determine to type by means of our prime 15 groups (nicely, 16, if we’re together with the 2026 Rams). There had been loads of seasons in the Nineteen Nineties the place two or three superteams — equivalent to the 49ers and Cowboys — had been seen as considerably higher than the remainder of the competitors. I need to get a way of what it was like for the groups that actually separated from the pack earlier than the season started, as seems to be the case for this Rams squad.

Did these groups maintain as much as their preseason expectations? Was the market overconfident about their possibilities? Let’s go staff by staff earlier than utilizing the classes from these 15 earlier circumstances to speak about what it means for the 2026 Rams and their probabilities of successful McVay and Stafford their second title.

Jump to:
2026 Rams | 2021 Chiefs | 2019 Patriots
2018 Patriots | 2017 Patriots | 2009 Patriots
2008 Patriots | 2007 Patriots | 2002 Rams
2001 Rams | 1998 Packers | 1997 Packers
1996 49ers | 1995 49ers | 1994 49ers | 1990 49ers
Can this season’s Rams win the Super Bowl?

Implied odds: 19.8%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 11.5%
Result: Lost Super Bowl LII to the Eagles, 41-33

I would not have guessed that the 2017 Patriots stood out when it comes to Super Bowl odds greater than some other New England staff from the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick period, however let’s contextualize this. The Pats had been coming off that legendary 34-28 win over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. Brady was getting Rob Gronkowski again from damage after the star tight finish missed the playoff run with a back ailment, whereas Belichick added a brand new star receiver to the combine in Brandin Cooks. After a 14-2 season and with Brady motivated by the four-game suspension he took for the Deflategate scandal, you might perceive why the Patriots had been heavy favorites to repeat as champs.

Some issues went as anticipated. Brady received the league MVP award. Cooks and Gronkowski every topped 1,000 yards. The Pats went 13-3 and took house the prime seed in the AFC.

Others didn’t. Belichick’s staff began 2-2 and wanted a last-minute comeback win over a 4-12 Texans staff to keep away from opening the season 1-3. The Pats righted the ship rapidly, however they had been trailing by 10 factors in the fourth quarter of the AFC title game and had been down almost three scores to the Jaguars, just for Myles Jack‘s fumble restoration landing to be overturned. Two late landing passes to Danny Amendola controversially pushed the Pats into the Super Bowl.

There, nicely, nothing went as deliberate. The Patriots protection had quietly been a multitude all yr, ending the common season ranked thirty first in DVOA. The offense coated up the weak spot by holding on to the ball and getting out to early leads. The Eagles had been heavy underdogs with backup quarterback Nick Foles in for the injured Carson Wentz, and you already know what occurred subsequent. Brady threw for 505 yards and three touchdowns, nonetheless the document for an NFL quarterback in a dropping effort, however the protection could not cease Foles & Co. The Pats fell 41-33.

Implied odds: 20.9%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 10.5%
Result: Lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, 17-14

Are you sensing a pattern? This was one other Patriots staff that rode offseason optimism about its offensive additions to excessive hopes earlier than falling brief in the Super Bowl. The 2006 Pats had blown a 21-3 result in the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, however in addition they weren’t far faraway from successful three titles between 2001 and 2004. Brady had improved as a quarterback over that point, and through the offseason, Belichick had rebuilt the offense by buying and selling for Randy Moss and Wes Welker and signing Donte’ Stallworth.

What occurred subsequent is one in all the extra notable seasons in NFL historical past. The Pats had been caught spying on the Jets throughout a 38-14 blowout victory in Week 1, turning a staff that had been the underdog favorites throughout their win over the Rams in 2001 into the villains of the NFL. On the subject, the Patriots blew defenses away with their unfold assault, as Brady produced arguably the best season in league historical past below heart. The Patriots went 16-0 in the common season, successful their common sport by almost 20 factors.

By the time the postseason got here round, although, the cracks had been starting to point out. Brady threw three picks in the AFC title game, however with Philip Rivers enjoying by means of a torn ACL and LaDainian Tomlinson restricted by damage to 3 touches, the Chargers could not take benefit in a 21-12 defeat. And in the Super Bowl, once more as heavy favorites, the Patriots had been upset by a Giants staff that was capable of management Brady in the pocket with its move rush.

Implied odds: 19.2%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 9.6%
Result: Lost in divisional spherical to the Packers, 35-14

The 49ers had been the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl in 1994, 1995 and 1996. Their standing as the third staff on this listing might need extra to do with an absence of competitors in the AFC than the rest. The Bills had been amongst the Super Bowl favorites earlier in the decade, however after a 7-9 season in 1994 and a 10-6 marketing campaign in 1995, they’d fallen again to the pack. The Steelers had superior to the Super Bowl the prior season, however beginning quarterback Neil O’Donnell had signed with the Jets in free company, turning issues over to 34-year-old Mike Tomczak as the staff’s starter. And whereas the Chiefs had been coming off a 13-win season, they’d relied on a profession yr from journeyman QB Steve Bono and lost 10-7 to the Colts in the wild-card spherical.

While there was no certain factor in the AFC, the 49ers appeared like the dependable possibility in the NFC. Though they’d been bounced by the Packers in the divisional spherical the yr earlier than, George Seifert’s staff had received the Super Bowl in 1994. If the 49ers may make it previous the Cowboys, who had been the defending champs, they felt like a simple choose to win a Super Bowl towards a random AFC opponent.

Well, the excellent news is that they by no means wanted to fret about the Cowboys, who went 10-6 and misplaced to the Panthers in the playoffs in Barry Switzer’s third yr in cost. The staff the 49ers did want to fret about, although, was the one which had overwhelmed them the yr earlier than. The Packers beat their rivals in additional time throughout the common season, which ended up giving Green Bay home-field benefit in the postseason. And when the two groups had a rematch at Lambeau in the NFC title sport, Steve Young was already coping with two damaged ribs. The 49ers starter lasted two collection, and after a Desmond Howard punt return opened the scoring, the Pack by no means regarded again.

Mike Holmgren’s staff received handily after which beat the Patriots by 14 factors in the Super Bowl. We’re 0-for-3 on favorites taking house the {hardware}.

Implied odds: 15.7%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 7.8%
Result: Missed playoffs

Make that 0-for-4. Though Brady and the Patriots had upset the Rams in the prior yr’s Super Bowl, the Rams had been simple favorites to return to the title sport the following yr. St. Louis was returning reigning MVP Kurt Warner and all of his key playmakers. Lovie Smith’s protection had completed seventh in factors allowed the prior season, leaving the “Greatest Show on Turf” with an expectation of dominance on either side of the soccer.

That by no means got here collectively, partly due to accidents. Warner performed solely seven video games and was uncharacteristically poor when he was on the subject, throwing 11 picks to simply three touchdowns. DB Aeneas Williams and OT Orlando Pace — All-Pros the prior yr — mixed to overlook 16 video games. Marshall Faulk, who had completed second to Warner in MVP voting in 2001, misplaced almost a full yard per carry off the earlier yr’s determine and by no means topped 1,000 speeding yards once more. The Rams posted a minus-19 turnover margin and went 7-9, lacking the playoffs solely.

Implied odds: 18.2%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 7.1%
Result: Lost in wild-card spherical to the Ravens, 33-14

These must be the shortest odds for a staff that hadn’t even made it to the postseason the prior yr, however there’s a simple clarification. The 2008 Patriots, who we’ll get to in a minute, had misplaced Tom Brady to a torn ACL in Week 1. Though that staff ended up lacking the playoffs, this felt like a possibility to get one other shot on backing a staff that had come inside one Asante Samuel interception of an ideal yr in 2007.

While Brady was again and received Comeback Player of the Year, the legendary quarterback wasn’t his traditional self. Several key gamers from the 2007 protection had been now not on the roster, and Belichick wasn’t capable of coax the identical type of magic out of their replacements. The Pats went 10-6, dropping Welker to a torn ACL throughout the last sport of the season. New England nonetheless received the division and hosted the Ravens in the wild-card spherical, however working again Ray Rice scored an 83-yard landing on the first offensive snap of the sport, Brady was strip-sacked to arrange one other brief subject, and the Ravens had been up 24-0 earlier than the finish of the first quarter. The Pats received inside two scores by the finish of the third quarter, however a comeback wasn’t in the playing cards.

Implied odds: 18%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 6.5%
Result: Lost in Super Bowl XXXII to the Broncos, 31-24

Well, this one is easy, proper? The Packers had steadily labored their manner up the ranks in the NFC, dethroning the 49ers earlier than lastly successful the Super Bowl towards the Patriots the yr earlier than. Brett Favre was in the prime of his profession and coming off back-to-back MVP trophies. Nobody in the NFC Central had been inside three video games of the Pack the prior yr, and whereas the Cowboys had overwhelmed Green Bay six occasions over the prior three seasons, there have been questions on whether or not the Dallas dynasty was fading.

As it turned out, the Cowboys weren’t a menace, as they fell to 6-10 in Switzer’s last yr as coach. Favre received his third consecutive MVP award, splitting the honors with Barry Sanders. The Packers misplaced the prime spot in the NFC to the 49ers on a tiebreaker, however Favre & Co. beat the Niners at Candlestick in the conference championship sport, holding Young and the 49ers offense and not using a landing in the course of.

The favorites in the AFC had been the Broncos, although, and whereas there might need been some skeptics unwilling to again a staff that had misplaced thrice in the Super Bowl with John Elway below heart, Denver turned out to be the greatest staff in soccer. The Broncos led the league in scoring, blew out the Jaguars after which beat the rival Chiefs with their run sport at Arrowhead. Terrell Davis outran Jerome Bettis and the Steelers protection in the AFC title game, and whereas the Packers had been 11-point favorites in the Super Bowl, a 157-yard, three-touchdown efficiency from Davis and a legendary “helicopter” run from Elway had been sufficient to get the legendary quarterback his first title.

Implied odds: 14.3%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 6.3%
Result: Lost in NFC Championship Game to the Giants, 15-13

One of these Broncos losses in the Super Bowl with Elway had come to those 49ers the prior yr, with Joe Montana throwing for 5 touchdowns in a 55-10 shellacking. In a few of the last seasons earlier than the wage cap actually modified soccer, the 49ers had been capable of carry again a fully stacked roster and had been blessed with Hall of Famers on either side of the soccer. They had been making an attempt to turn out to be the first staff to efficiently win three consecutive Super Bowls and had been heavy favorites to tug it off.

And for many of the yr, the odds felt prescient. The 49ers began 10-0 earlier than dropping to the Rams, however a 7-3 win over the Giants helped lock up home-field benefit by means of the postseason. Montana’s 8-1 document at house in the playoffs urged that no one was going to have a lot hope of beating the 49ers earlier than the Super Bowl.

The Giants, who had been beginning profession backup Jeff Hostetler as eight-point underdogs at Candlestick, took that personally. They brutalized Montana, who ultimately left the sport with a bevy of accidents. Hostetler and the offense did not rating a landing, however with the 49ers making an attempt to run the clock out, a Roger Craig fumble with three minutes to go handed the Giants a brief subject. Matt Bahr’s fifth subject objective of the sport gave Bill Parcells’ staff a 15-13 victory earlier than happening to beat the Bills on a missed subject objective by Scott Norwood in the subsequent Super Bowl.

Implied odds: 16.1%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 5.8%
Result: Missed playoffs

The 2008 Patriots understandably had higher uncooked odds to win the Super Bowl than their 2009 brethren, however they did not get pleasure from as important of a spot with the remainder of the subject. This staff was coming off the 17-0 marketing campaign, and their hopes had been instantly dashed by Brady’s ACL tear in the season opener. Unheralded backup Matt Cassel took over and received 11 video games, however for the first and solely time in the 12-playoff staff period, these 11 wins weren’t sufficient for the Pats to make it to the postseason. Our search continues.

Implied odds: 12.5%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 5.1%
Result: TBD

Well, when you’re a Rams fan, this could be slightly worrying. Every single staff that was projected to be extra dominant versus the remainder of the competitors than the 2026 Rams didn’t win the Super Bowl. Some made it to the title sport and got here very near successful, in fact, however we’re presently 0-for-8. More on this season’s Rams in a bit …

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Stephen A.: Rams are Super Bowl favorites after including Myles Garrett

Implied odds: 19.3%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 4.8%
Result: Lost in divisional spherical to the Packers, 27-17

After going up 42-10 in the prior yr’s Super Bowl towards the Chargers earlier than successful by 23 factors, you possibly can perceive why the 49ers had been heavy favorites once more in 1995. While the Niners had misplaced Deion Sanders to the rival Cowboys after one season in San Francisco, Dallas was caught in an often-difficult NFC East. The 49ers had been the kings of the NFC West, the place no different staff had posted a successful document in 1994.

The 1995 49ers confronted a brand new downside for our superteams: They had been unfortunate. While they’d the level differential of a 12.7-win staff, the Niners received solely 11 video games, the product of a 2-5 document in video games determined by seven factors or much less. Though they managed to beat the Cowboys and had been in place to clinch home-field benefit in the NFC throughout the last week of the season, they lost 28-27 to a Falcons staff that relied on backup quarterback Bobby Hebert for many of the sport.

The loss dropped the 49ers to the second seed, so whereas they received a first-round bye, their opponents in Round 2 had been the third-seeded Packers and soon-to-be MVP Favre. The 49ers could not cease Favre, who threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. For all its expertise and playoff savviness, San Francisco turned the ball over 4 occasions in a 27-17 defeat.

Implied odds: 15.1%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 4.7%
Result: Lost in AFC Championship Game to the Bengals, 27-24

It’s our first Chiefs staff from the Patrick Mahomes period. While Kansas City had misplaced to Brady and Tampa Bay in the prior yr’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs returned lots of the key gamers from a 14-2 staff that had been perpetually competing for a Super Bowl from the second Mahomes took over as the full-time starter in 2018. The solely different AFC staff in the prime six of that yr’s Super Bowl odds had been the Bills, who could not appear to get previous Mahomes when issues mattered most.

This wasn’t a dominant Chiefs staff. It was badly blown out 38-20 by the Bills early in the season, then completed October with a dropping document at 3-4. Of course, from that time ahead, the Chiefs received 11 of their subsequent 13 video games, together with a legendary shootout with the Bills in the divisional round.

The two losses had been to the identical staff. The Bengals had been no one’s thought of a Super Bowl contender provided that they’d gone 4-11-1 and misplaced Joe Burrow to a torn ACL the prior season, however the addition of Ja’Marr Chase and important investments on the defensive facet of the ball rapidly turned issues round. The Bengals began 7-6, however they started to consider after beating the Chiefs in a 34-31 barn burner late in the season.

And whereas the Chiefs went up 21-3 on the Bengals of their convention championship rematch, a midgame gambit by defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to drop eight into protection flummoxed Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Cincinnati scored the subsequent 21 factors to take the lead, and whereas Mahomes received the Chiefs in place to tie the sport, he almost blew the contest by taking an terrible strip sack earlier than the tying kick. A Mahomes interception in additional time handed the ball again to the Bengals, and an Evan McPherson subject objective ended Kansas City’s hopes. We’re now 0-for-10!

Implied odds: 18.4%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 4.6%
Result: Won Super Bowl XXIX over the Chargers, 49-26

Finally, the 1994 49ers staff that we have mentioned earlier bails out the favorites. This was a yr that went largely as deliberate from the preseason. The 49ers and Cowboys had been the heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl, combining to seize greater than 32% of the preseason market. They had been two of the three groups to win 12 or extra video games; the different was the Steelers, who had been upset by the Chargers in the AFC title game.

The season felt like it will come right down to the 49ers-Cowboys matchups, and it did. The Niners hosted the Cowboys throughout the common season and beat them 21-14 by forcing three Dallas turnovers. That win gave the Niners home-field benefit, and in the rematch, the 49ers pressured 5 takeaways, together with a 44-yard pick-six by Eric Davis to start out the scoring. The Niners had been up 21-0 earlier than the finish of the first quarter, turning the Cowboys right into a one-dimensional staff, and the sport was by no means actually a contest. And whereas we have written a couple of string of Super Bowl favorites getting upset in the huge sport, the 49ers had been 19-point favorites towards the Chargers and received by 23.

Implied odds: 15.9%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 4.5%
Result: Lost in wild-card spherical to the Titans, 20-13

The last yr of the Brady period in New England received off to what seemed to be an auspicious begin. The Patriots had been coming off one other Super Bowl title after manhandling the Rams, and whereas there have been issues about Brady’s playmakers after Gronkowski retired, a possibility gave the impression to be opening up as the season started. The Pats had been favorites to signal Antonio Brown after his ill-fated stint with the Raiders, and in the future earlier than the season started, the Pats added the star wideout to their roster.

Brown performed one sport for the staff earlier than being cut after he was accused of off-field misconduct. The Patriots rode a traditionally dominant protection early in the season towards a weak schedule of opponents, however a 37-20 loss to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens ended their hopes of one other undefeated season. And down the stretch, the offense got here undone. Top receiver Julian Edelman was clearly hobbled by the finish of the season. Lead again Sony Michel didn’t common 4 yards per carry. A Pats staff that began 10-1 misplaced three of its last 5 video games to land at 12-4 and missed out on a first-round bye.

It nonetheless felt like the Patriots may have the ability to piece collectively yet another playoff run, however Derrick Henry‘s breakout season continued into the playoffs, with the Titans star racking up 182 yards on 34 carries. The Patriots held Ryan Tannehill to 67 internet passing yards, however Brady’s offense went 1-for-3 in the pink zone. A pick-six by Brady on his last move try in a Patriots uniform sealed a 20-13 victory for the Titans.

Implied odds: 18.3%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 4.1%
Result: Lost in wild-card spherical to the 49ers, 30-27

While the Packers had misplaced to the Broncos in the prior season’s Super Bowl, no one was dropping religion in Green Bay. Favre had received three consecutive MVP awards. Holmgren’s staff had gone 13-3 and superior to the Super Bowl every of the two prior campaigns. The solely different staff in the NFC to win greater than 10 video games in 1997 had been the 49ers, and the Packers had knocked them out of the playoffs in every of the prior three seasons. The Broncos had been a menace, in fact, however the Packers appeared set to run the NFC.

Favre had an excellent season, however he threw 23 interceptions, up from a mean of 14 throughout these three prior MVP campaigns. The Packers’ turnover margin flipped from even in 1997 to minus-11 in 1998. And they did not produce any type of run sport all season, with an damage to Dorsey Levens costing the offense dearly. The Pack averaged simply 3.4 yards per carry, which ranked twenty ninth in the league.

An unexpectedly dominant staff additionally emerged in the NFC, as the Vikings put in Randall Cunningham at quarterback, had Moss fall into their laps in the first spherical and averaged almost 35 factors per sport. The Vikings went 15-1 and received the NFC Central by 4 video games, pushing the Packers into the wild-card spherical. And whereas they traveled to the Bay Area to face the 49ers once more, their playoff dominance did not stick. Favre led a landing drive to take the lead with two minutes to go, however the protection could not cease Young, who hit Terrell Owens for a 25-yard landing move with eight seconds on the clock. “The Catch II” knocked the defending NFC champions out.

Implied odds: 18.7%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 3.9%
Result: Won Super Bowl LIII over the Rams, 13-3

The Patriots had misplaced to Foles’ Eagles in the Super Bowl the yr earlier than and traded Cooks to the Rams over the offseason, however they nonetheless had a deep secondary and the combo of Brady and Belichick working issues. Adding Josh Gordon, who had managed a 1,646-yard season in 2013 earlier than falling afoul of the league’s substance policy, hinted towards the chance of a probably rejuvenated passing sport. And the solely different staff that had received greater than 10 video games in the AFC in 2017 was the Steelers, who had promptly been eradicated in the wild-card spherical by the Jaguars. The Patriots regarded like they may very well be the class of the AFC.

They had been … though it wasn’t fairly as clear-cut because it might need appeared. The Jags gained a measure of revenge in September for the convention title loss by beating the Pats 31-20 behind 376 passing yards and 4 landing passes from Blake Bortles. Belichick rapidly turned issues round after a 1-2 begin, however the Chiefs had been rising as title contenders behind second-year quarterback Mahomes, who received league MVP in his first yr as a starter.

The Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in October when Kansas City could not discover a solution for Gronkowski in key spots. The rematch in the AFC title sport was at Arrowhead, however even after a pair of lead adjustments in the last minute, the Patriots received the coin toss in additional time and scored a landing on the solely drive of the additional quarter. They earned a visit to the Super Bowl, the place their 6-1 entrance flummoxed McVay and Jared Goff of the Rams. The Pats did not do a lot on offense both, however they discovered one concept that labored towards the Rams and ran it thrice for the game-deciding rating.

Implied odds: 12.6%
Gap to the remainder of the NFL: 3.6%
Result: Lost Super Bowl XXXVI to the Patriots, 20-17

And we end up with one other Rams loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. After successful the Super Bowl in 1999, the Rams fell to 10-6 in 2000 and didn’t win a playoff sport. The purpose appeared clear: Warner had missed 5 video games, and the Rams had gone 2-3 with Trent Green below heart. The protection was atrocious, permitting greater than 29 factors per contest. The entrance workplace made important adjustments by hiring Lovie Smith and signing star cornerback Aeneas Williams. A Rams staff with a wholesome quarterback and an improved protection could be unimaginable to cease.

For most of the season, that appeared proper. The Rams began 6-0, completed 14-2 and led the league in most offensive classes. Warner and Faulk completed one-two in the MVP race. The protection improved from thirty first in factors allowed to seventh. The playoffs went by means of St. Louis, and comfy victories over the Packers and Eagles as 11-point favorites appeared to reaffirm the hype. With an overmatched Patriots staff led by an inexperienced, injured quarterback ready in the Super Bowl, the Rams appeared set to be anointed as one in all the nice groups of the trendy period.

Well, they’d one weak spot. Warner and the offense had turned the ball over 44 occasions. They misplaced the turnover battle in the Super Bowl 3-0, with Ty Law returning one interception for a rating earlier than a second fumble restoration landing was waved off by a Patriots holding name. The Rams nonetheless had sufficient to tie the rating at 17 with 1:30 to go, however towards the protests of John Madden on commentary, Belichick trusted that inexperienced quarterback to take a shot at driving down the size of the subject in additional time to arrange a game-winning subject objective. Brady moved the ball 53 yards in 74 seconds, and one Adam Vinatieri kick later, the Pats had been unlikely champs.

Can the Rams do it?

Of these 15 most vital favorites, precisely two lived as much as expectations and took house the Lombardi Trophy. That may appear to be a serious disappointment, but it surely’s not far off from what we’d have anticipated given their preseason projections. If we use the implied win possibilities, the numbers recommend these groups would have received 2.35 Super Bowls. Winning two in actuality is fairly near what the markets urged.

And in fact, whereas the Rams really feel like prohibitive favorites proper now, the market suggests they’re nonetheless way more more likely to come up brief. Their implied Super Bowl chance is 12.5%. That’s roughly the success price offenses have had whereas making an attempt to transform a fourth-and-13 over the previous three years. If we may simulate the 2026 NFL season eight occasions, the Rams would anticipate to win a type of eight makes an attempt.

What may occur to sink the Rams in these different seven situations? Well, we have run by means of 15 of the most substantial favorites since 1990, and there have been a handful of things that served to derail them alongside the manner. How do they apply to this season’s Rams? Let’s choose them aside:

The schedule ought to be robust. The 2025 Rams had been an ideal staff too, in fact, ending second in DVOA. The downside is that the greatest staff in the league by DVOA occurred to even be in the NFC West. After Los Angeles topped Seattle 21-19 in November, the Seahawks managed to return again from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Rams 38-37 in December. And in a playoff rubber matchup, Sam Darnold performed his greatest sport of the second half, outdueling Stafford in a 31-27 victory.

Having to play the Seahawks and 49ers a minimal of 4 occasions is just harder than life in the NFC East or NFC South. The Rams venture to face the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. While the 49ers and Seahawks aren’t locks to play in addition to they did a yr in the past, the Seahawks return the younger core from their Super Bowl-winning staff, and the 49ers, a minimum of in principle, could be more healthy this time round. (Just do not take a look at their receiving corps.)

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Another superteam may unexpectedly emerge in the convention. Right now, it is truthful to venture the Seahawks as the stiffest competitors to the Rams, and I’d anticipate them to be round in January. But huge seasons can come out of nowhere. What if Caleb Williams goes supernova in Year 2 below Ben Johnson? What if the Packers get an MVP yr from Jordan Love and their roster stays wholesome deep into the season? What if Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley have resurgent years behind a more healthy Eagles offensive line? Or if Kyler Murray catches fireplace in Kevin O’Connell’s offense and at last offers the Vikings a respectable menace below heart to go along with their protection?

The QB may get harm or take an surprising step backward. Stafford is coming off an MVP season, however there have been additionally issues right now a yr in the past that he was about to go on injured reserve to start the season as he battled a back issue. He was capable of come by means of with none points and thrive, however even nice quarterbacks must take care of huge error bars and final result ranges as they method 40 years outdated.

Injuries can all of the sudden seem. I’ve introduced up the case of Rich Gannon, who starred with the Raiders late in his 30s. The journeyman was wholesome for 4 consecutive years as Oakland’s starter, and like Stafford, Gannon received his first MVP award throughout his age-38 season. The Raiders had been amongst the favorites to return to the Super Bowl the following yr, however Gannon struggled, received harm seven video games in, missed the remainder of the season and retired after enjoying simply three video games the following yr.

Other quarterbacks merely fell off an effectiveness cliff. Aaron Rodgers received MVP awards at ages 37 and 38, however he dropped from first in QBR to twenty sixth at age 39. Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns at age 38 earlier than being benched for Brock Osweiler the following yr. (The protection carried him to a second Super Bowl anyway, a destiny Stafford would most likely be keen to countenance.) I believe Stafford ought to nonetheless be nice in 2026, however nothing is assured with quarterbacks this late of their careers.

Injuries may hit different key elements of the roster. Stafford is not the solely irreplaceable star on the roster. The Rams had been capable of overcome Puka Nacua‘s one-game absence in 2025 by unexpectedly leaning into 13 personnel (three tight ends) for a blowout win over the Jaguars in London, however there’s no one on this roster and probably in the league who can step in for the star receiver’s capability to catch passes, create after the catch and block at the highest degree. Davante Adams is an excellent second possibility, however he is a special sort of wideout. Any Nacua damage would not sink the Rams, but it surely may restrict their ceiling.

A wider swath of accidents may additionally afflict the Rams. L.A. followers absolutely keep in mind what occurred to the defending Super Bowl champs in 2022. Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp didn’t make it by means of the season, lacking a mixed 28 video games. The offensive line was ripped to shreds by accidents, with 14 totally different gamers beginning a minimum of one sport up entrance for McVay. The free agent additions the Rams made did not have a major influence, as Bobby Wagner was one-and-done in Los Angeles, whereas Allen Robinson proved to be a disastrous alternative as the WR2. The Rams got here into the yr as third-favorites to win the Super Bowl and completed 5-12.

A weak hyperlink prices them in key video games. We noticed this in 2025, when subpar particular groups value the Rams a lot of victories throughout the common season and might need completed them off in the playoffs. A blocked punt set the Panthers as much as take the lead with 2:39 to go in the wild-card round earlier than a Rams comeback, whereas a muffed punt by Xavier Smith handed the Seahawks a brief subject and a landing in a conference title game the Rams would ultimately lose by 4 factors.

McVay needed to make main adjustments to the particular groups throughout the yr, firing particular groups coordinator Chase Blackburn and changing kicker Joshua Karty with Harrison Mevis. The latter was strong in his first season as an NFL kicker, however he has tried solely two subject objectives from past 50 yards as a professional. The Rams had been twenty sixth in particular groups DVOA, and whereas they employed Bubba Ventrone as the coordinator and signed Lions special-teamer Grant Stuard to assist sort things, I’m undecided they venture to be a lot better in 2026. It’s solely potential {that a} tough second on particular groups decides the season for the Rams once more.

They make it to the Super Bowl … and lose. Of course, the most definitely situation is that the Rams both overcome or need not take care of these points. But even when they do get to the Super Bowl, the variance of a one-game pattern and the issue of enjoying what ought to be an excellent staff on the different facet of the subject can swamp any type of benefit. A loss in the Super Bowl would not really feel like a catastrophe in the manner that lacking the playoffs altogether may, however it will rely simply the identical from the perspective of successful a title. And it occurred to 4 of the 15 different superteams that we checked out from the previous 35 years.