How real are good starts from Rays, Cardinals, Pirates, White Sox?
The back-to-back World Series titles for the Los Angeles Dodgers helped cement the sentiment that baseball is simply too predictable.
Their success, nonetheless, ignores a lot of the unpredictability of latest seasons. Of word: The Texas Rangers went from 68-94 in 2022 to a World Series title in 2023; the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the Fall Classic that season simply two years after going 52-110; the Toronto Blue Jays improved by 20 wins final season and got here heartbreakingly near a championship. Even the Milwaukee Brewers, who reached the NL Championship Series in 2025, had been simply fifteenth in ESPN’s preseason Power Rankings earlier than happening to guide the majors with 97 wins that season.
With the chaotic begin to the 2026 season, it appears virtually sure that we’ll see a shock crew — or three — making a run into the postseason. In this version of Real or Not, let’s dig into which of those golf equipment appear to be severe playoff contenders and which could fade because the 162-game season rolls alongside.
Record: 30-15, 9-1 in one-run video games
Run differential: Plus-25
Preseason Power Ranking: 21
From their authentic breakout season in 2008 by way of their final playoff look in 2023, the Rays adopted the same sample to successful: glorious protection (third within the majors in defensive runs saved over these years), velocity on the bases (first in baserunning runs) and efficient bullpens (third in ERA and second in win likelihood added).
Tampa Bay’s 2026 crew just isn’t these Rays.
• Defense: While they’re sixth in DRS, the Rays are twenty sixth in Statcast’s outs above common, with a few clear defensive liabilities in third baseman Junior Caminero and first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
• Baserunning: Despite the presence of speedster Chandler Simpson, the Rays rank tied for twelfth in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric.
• Bullpen: The Rays are twenty first in ERA and tied for twenty second in strikeout price.
It should be the offense then, proper? Not precisely. The Rays are thirteenth in runs scored — and tied for twenty fifth in dwelling runs.
OK, it should be the rotation then. Yes, type of, because the Rays are second within the majors with a 2.94 ERA and have the second-lowest OPS allowed, though they’re simply twenty fourth in strikeout price and twenty first in innings pitched. It’s additionally a unit the Rays are scrambling to fill past the highest three of Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez after accidents to Steven Matz and Joe Boyle (and the season-ending surgical procedure for Ryan Pepiot, who by no means made an look). Griffin Jax, the crew’s projected prime reliever getting into the season, is now beginning, which weakens the bullpen depth.
As you may need surmised, these aren’t the underlying statistics of a 30-15 crew. One key quantity we skipped: The bullpen, a minimum of till Hunter Bigge‘s eight-run implosion within the tenth inning Saturday, had been clutch in shut video games, main the majors in win likelihood added. Still, considerations concerning the bullpen depth, particularly with Jax beginning, and people general numbers recommend this is not a pen that’s going to maintain that going. As good as Rasmussen and McClanahan have been, they’re additionally five-and-dive starters as a result of their historical past of accidents, which provides strain on the pen that can add up over the course of a season.
Verdict: Real
This is a difficult one. Due to the mediocrity of the remainder of the American League, if the Rays play simply .500 the remainder of the way in which, they will win 88 video games, and that just about assuredly will get them into the playoffs. But we’re additionally taking a look at an offense that has no dwelling runs from three of its regulars — Simpson, Taylor Walls and Ben Williamson — and one dwelling run from its catchers. But are the Rays severe playoff contenders? Most actually sure. The begin is within the financial institution. But their large three of Caminero, Aranda and Yandy Diaz, plus these prime three starters, should proceed to do a variety of the work.
Record: 27-19, 10-3 in one-run video games
Run differential: Plus-3
Preseason Power Ranking: 26
This was purported to be a rebuilding season in Chaim Bloom’s first yr as head of baseball operations. In the offseason, the Cardinals unloaded their prime two place gamers from final season, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras, plus their prime beginning pitcher in Sonny Gray. They additionally traded Nolan Arenado and dealt away nearer Ryan Helsley on the final deadline. As you’ll be able to see from the preseason rankings, the expectations had been understandably low.
These Cardinals are a youthful, extra athletic, rather more attention-grabbing crew. None of the regulars within the lineup are older than 27, and solely the Washington Nationals have a youthful common age amongst their place gamers. The Cardinals’ pitchers are the fourth-youngest group.
Leading the way in which has been Jordan Walker, a powerful MVP candidate by way of the primary quarter of the season, hitting .301/.371/.584. It has been enjoyable to see his rebound from prime prospect who had a strong rookie yr in 2023 to struggling prospect the previous two seasons and now to potential star. It’s a singular roller-coaster journey; certainly, Walker’s struggles the previous two seasons had been extreme sufficient that, even at 24 years outdated, many had written him off. His offensive numbers are professional, together with his A centesimal-percentile bat velocity producing a Ninety fifth-percentile hard-hit price and 93rd-percentile anticipated slugging proportion. The enhancements look sustainable.
Rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt has been the opposite spark, hitting .233/.356/.401 with eight dwelling runs, 33 runs scored and glorious protection at second base. With a good method on the plate and the vary of a shortstop, Wetherholt’s all-around sport is already making him a possible All-Star candidate (though second base within the National League is loaded this yr).
Indeed, with Masyn Winn, Wetherholt and middle fielder Victor Scott II, the Cardinals’ up-the-middle protection is true up there with the Chicago Cubs for finest within the majors. That’s essential given the pitching workers ranks final within the majors in strikeout price.
Verdict: Not Real
Despite the positives, it is laborious to reconcile a crew with the bottom strikeout price as a playoff contender. Here are the playoff groups from the previous 4 seasons who ranked within the backside 10 in pitcher strikeout price:
2025: Cubs (twenty first)
2024: None
2023: Rangers (twenty first), Diamondbacks (twenty second)
2022: Cardinals (twenty eighth)
That’s 4 out of 40 — though solely the 2022 Cardinals had been close to the underside of the league. That crew additionally benefitted from two 100-loss groups within the division within the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates (the Cardinals went 25-13 in opposition to them) and a powerful offense with MVP Paul Goldschmidt and MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. This yr’s NL Central, in the meantime, appears like the most effective division within the majors.
Of course, just like the Rays, the Cardinals’ scorching begin is within the books. They’ve overwhelmed the Dodgers and Rays in a sequence, cut up a two-game sequence with the Brewers and swept the Pirates in a four-game sequence, in order that they’ve performed properly in opposition to good groups. They have not performed the Cubs but (and do not face them in any respect in September). The Cardinals actually look higher than the 70-92 preseason forecast, however the 10-3 file in one-run video games and 6-1 in further innings will likely be tough to maintain.
Record: 24-23, 6-6 in one-run video games
Run differential: Plus-18
Preseason Power Ranking: 22
The Pirates scored fewer runs final season than even lowly Colorado, their worst runs-per-game determine since 1985. The offense has improved from 3.60 runs per sport to 4.87, good sufficient to rank seventh within the majors. Check out among the crew’s 2026 features in OPS up to now over their 2025 numbers:
Oneil Cruz: Plus-113 factors
Bryan Reynolds: Plus-50
Spencer Horwitz: Plus-10
Nick Gonzales: Plus-83
Konnor Griffin: Plus-79 over 2025 SS
Brandon Lowe: Plus-245 over 2025 2B
Ryan O’Hearn: Plus-133 over 2025 RF
Improvements all over the place! The holdovers are higher and the three new additions — rookie Griffin and the veteran acquisitions Lowe and O’Hearn — have actually helped to juice the offense. And Griffin’s present .713 OPS is simply going to go up because the 20-year-old is already displaying speedy enchancment from his first three weeks. Maybe Lowe is a bit of over his head together with his .551 slugging proportion, however it’s laborious to categorise it as a fluke contemplating he hit 31 dwelling runs final yr with the Rays. Cruz’s numbers are plausible, proper in step with what he did in 2024 versus final yr’s .200 batting common. In different phrases: These offensive features seems like they will maintain all season.
Verdict: Real
Yes, the Cardinals have the higher file proper now, are the higher defensive crew and cleaned up in opposition to the Pirates in that head-to-head showdown. There’s one main distinction between the groups, in fact: Paul Skenes. After that Opening Day catastrophe, when Cruz misplaced two fly balls within the solar as Skenes allowed 5 runs and bought knocked out of the sport, the Pittsburgh ace is 6-2 with a 1.82 ERA (though the Phillies scored 5 runs off him on Sunday). With Skenes main the way in which, the Pirates are sixth in rotation ERA and provides them a playoff-worthy rotation.
Sure, St. Louis’ Michael McGreevy has pitched properly up to now, driving a low BABIP to a 2.10 ERA, however there’s big hole between the projected remainder of season outcomes for Skenes versus McGreevy and the Pittsburgh rotation versus the St. Louis rotation, sufficient to make the Pirates the extra possible playoff contender. They want to wash up a number of issues, similar to offense at DH and bullpen depth, however Skenes’ worth is excessive sufficient that if the remainder of the crew is a .500 crew, they need to make the playoffs.
Record: 24-22, 9-5 in one-run video games
Run differential: Minus-7
Preseason Power Ranking: 28
Saturday’s win over the Cubs highlighted how the White Sox have remodeled from unwatchable laughingstock to entertaining playoff contender in simply two years:
1. They pounded 5 dwelling runs, together with two from Munetaka Murakami, his sixteenth and seventeenth of the season. The new three-true-outcomes king is hitting .235/.372/.562 with a hard-hit price within the A centesimal percentile at 63% — highest within the majors. Yes, considerations about his potential to hit velocity are nonetheless legit (he is batting .185 in opposition to 95-plus, which ranks 136th out of 172 certified batters), however he attracts sufficient walks (fourth-highest price within the majors) and has performed sufficient injury in opposition to different pitches that he nonetheless has a top-10 OPS. Albert Belle’s membership file of 49 dwelling runs is perhaps in play.
2. Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery additionally homered, giving the White Sox three hitters with double-digit dwelling runs already.
3. Sam Antonacci had two hits and scored twice from the leadoff spot. Antonacci and Chase Meidroth give the White Sox two supplementary-type gamers who get on base and get their uniforms soiled.
4. Davis Martin allowed one run in six innings to enhance to 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA. If the season had been to finish right this moment, he’d be within the Cy Young dialog alongside Cam Schlittler and Jose Soriano. The enchancment is not a fluke: He has improved his strikeout price from 17.3% in 2025 to 27.4%, an enormous year-over-year enhance.
Verdict: Real
This one comes with a little bit of an asterisk. Basically, a .500 crew may make the playoffs within the AL … and the White Sox is perhaps a .500 crew. They’ll get Kyle Teel again quickly, which is able to assist the offense. Maybe rookie lefty Noah Schultz can flip into an affect starter. Otherwise although, there are clear holes right here: the underside of the lineup, the rotation apart from Martin, the bullpen depth and trustworthiness of nearer Seranthony Dominguez. Still, there are good vibes brewing right here, even when FanGraphs tasks the White Sox to complete final within the division (though with everybody bunched between 74 and 81 wins). In this unusual begin to the season, who is aware of? Maybe the White Sox will likely be not simply the shock crew of 2026, however one of many all-time shockers.