Polish officials warn NATO’s next war is already unfolding at its border

This is half two of a sequence analyzing the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.

POLAND-BELARUS BORDER — Riding in a navy convoy escorted by armored autos from Poland’s 18th “Iron Division” alongside the nation’s 521-kilometer border with Belarus, troopers pointed towards dense forests the place they are saying Europe’s latest type of warfare is unfolding.

Polish officials warn unlawful migrants weaponized by Russia and Belarus to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank are additionally making their technique to the United States — a part of what Warsaw calls an ongoing war in opposition to the Western alliance that has direct implications for American safety.

The border was as soon as guarded primarily by Poland’s Border Guard and police. But after years of mounting strain from unlawful crossings, Polish officials say the military was deployed as a result of the scenario grew to become too massive and too harmful to deal with as a standard immigration problem.

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Now, the frontier is guarded in layers: troopers, border guards and rapid-response forces. A short lived barrier in-built 2021 has develop into an digital fence backed by surveillance methods and navy patrols. Polish officials say migrants making an attempt to cross have come from international locations together with SyriaSomalia, Afghanistan and India.

They describe the disaster as “artificial,” saying the unlawful migrations are flown into Belarus from the Middle East, Africa and Asia after which transported towards the Polish border by Belarusian authorities in an effort to strain and destabilize NATO international locations.

Military officials at the border mentioned the height was in 2021, when there have been 39,697 unlawful crossing makes an attempt. By 2025, it was 29,869, barely fewer than in 2024. So far in 2026, they’ve seen a serious drop, they are saying.

For Warsaw, the numbers inform solely a part of the story.

Polish officials say the border strain is not spontaneous unlawful migration, however a Russian-backed Belarusian operation designed to destabilize BORN from inside.

“We are at war,” Ambassador Krzysztof Olendzki of Poland’s Foreign Ministry advised Fox News Digital after the border go to.

“Not only Poland, but also all the countries of the eastern flank of NATO, we are in war,” Olendzki mentioned. “We cannot see it as a classical war with soldiers, with tanks and so on, but the war is exercised by our adversaries, by Belarus and Russia, who are using practically migrants as an asymmetric weapon against NATO countries.”

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File photograph reveals principally male unlawful migrants ready at the closed space ready by the Belarusian authorities inside the border area after they cleared camps at the Poland-Belarus border, on Nov. 18, 2021, in Grodno area, Belarus. (Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency through Getty Images)

The disaster dates again to 2021, when Poland, Lithuania and Latvia accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s regime of encouraging migrants from the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere to journey to Belarus and cross illegally into the European Union. Belarus has denied orchestrating the flows, however Poland and the EU have described the marketing campaign as hybrid warfare.

Olendzki mentioned the purpose is not solely to push folks throughout the border, however to create chaos inside Western societies.

The border go to highlighted how far Poland has gone to harden what it views as one among NATO’s most weak borders.

Capt. Angelika Korkosz of Poland’s 18th Division described the day-to-day pressure on troopers stationed there.

“Many times soldiers were faced with aggression from illegal groups of immigrants, and they have to act appropriately and calmly in accordance with the law and procedures while protecting themselves,” Korkosz advised Fox News Digital.

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A Polish soldier stands watch close to the Belarus border, the place officials say migration strain has advanced right into a type of hybrid warfare focusing on NATO’s jap flank on May 16, 2026.

Polish officials mentioned migrants have used Molotov cocktails in at least two incidents, sparking fires close to the border. Soldiers additionally spoke of a Polish serviceman who died after being stabbed by an unlawful migrant at the border.

Korkosz mentioned the problem is not solely violence, however exhaustion.

“A few months ago, we had minus-20-degree winters, so 12-hour duty during these conditions is really demanding,” she mentioned. “Many soldiers are here for a long time, and it is getting more and more difficult, this long separation from their relatives.”

Still, she mentioned the troops are ready.

“The training includes decision-making under pressure in an ambiguous operational environment,” Korkosz mentioned. “That’s why when we are here at the border, we are really well-prepared for performing our duties.”

Poland says the border defenses are working. Amb. Olendzki mentioned the decrease variety of crossings this 12 months displays the bodily barrier, the elevated effectiveness of the Border Guard and the navy presence. But he warned the menace has not disappeared, solely shifted.

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Soldiers from Poland’s 18th Division display battlefield medical coaching close to the Belarus border after a serviceman from the division was killed in an assault by an unlawful migrant. May sixteenth, 2026. (Efrat Lachter/Fox News)

“Seeing the fact that the Polish-Belarusian border is quite well guarded, our adversaries are just pushing migrants through the borders of our neighboring countries,” he mentioned. “So it hasn’t ended, but it’s changed the direction. The threat still exists, and we must be vigilant.”

That issues to NATO as a result of Poland’s border with Belarus is not solely Warsaw’s border. It is additionally the jap fringe of the European Union and NATO territory.

Belarus is Russia’s closest ally and allowed its territory to be used for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Russia could also be making an attempt to tug Belarus deeper into the war and will use Belarusian territory to threaten Ukraine or perhaps a NATO nation.

That concern is central to Poland’s safety posture.

During a gathering with reporters in Warsaw, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski advised Fox News Digital Russia’s war in opposition to Ukraine is, for Poland, “a matter of national security and existence.”

But Sikorski mentioned the menace to NATO international locations is already wider than the battlefield in Ukraine.

“We had on NATO international locations’ territories assassinations, quite a few drone attacks on airportson important infrastructure,” Sikorski mentioned. “We had very serious cyberattacks.”

Polish troopers stand watch close to the Belarus border, the place officials say migration strain has advanced right into a type of hybrid warfare focusing on NATO’s jap flank. May sixteenth, 2026. (Efrat Lachter/Fox News Digital)

Sikorski mentioned Poland confronted a Russian-instigated cyberattack final December on important power infrastructure that Warsaw believes was meant “to black out part of Poland.”

The warning suits a broader sample of considerations throughout NATO’s jap flank. The Associated Press reported earlier this 12 months that balloons from Belarus had crossed into Polish airspace for a 3rd consecutive night time, with Polish forces describing the incidents as makes an attempt to check air protection responses.

For Poland, unlawful migration, cyberattacks, dronessabotage and disinformation usually are not separate issues. They are totally different items of 1 Russian and Belarusian strain marketing campaign in opposition to NATO.

Olendzki mentioned Poland’s function is to cease the strain earlier than it strikes deeper into Europe or past.

“Standing on guard on the eastern flank of NATO, we are providing security not only to Poland, to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, but to entire NATO, also to the United States,” he mentioned.

US Border Patrol brokers put together to move migrants for asylum declare processing at the US-Mexico border in Campo, California, US, on Friday, April 5, 2024. Last week a federal choose sharply questioned the Biden administration’s place that it bears no duty for housing and feeding migrant kids whereas they wait in makeshift camps alongside the US-Mexico border, reported the AP. (Mark Abramson/Bloomberg through Getty Images)

That US connection is a central a part of Poland’s message to Washington: The jap flank is not a distant European drawback, however a entrance line in a broader confrontation with Russia and its allies.

Poland now spends almost 5% of its GDP on protection, the very best price in NATO, if primarily based on GPD. Sikorski mentioned Warsaw has lengthy taken protection spending significantly.

“We never went below 2% defense spending,” Sikorski mentioned. “Now we’re spending virtually 5%. This is actual military spending“

He mentioned the jap flank has develop into extra influential inside NATO as a result of international locations closest to Russia had been confirmed proper.

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A Polish border guard at the Polish-Belarus border fence close to the village of Ozierany Male, Poland, on Friday, Jul. 4, 2025. (Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg through Getty Images)

“The eastern flank is much more powerful than even five years ago,” Sikorski mentioned. “We had been right about the nature of Putin’s regime and Russia’s aggressive technique.”

That view has formed Poland’s method to the United States. Warsaw needs American troops to stay in Europe, however Polish officials additionally acknowledge that Europe should assume extra of the protection burden as US consideration more and more shifts towards China and the Indo-Pacific.

Sikorski mentioned Poland understands that “Europe ceased to be angle primary for US foreign policy,” however needs any change in America’s function to be “gradual and well-designed.”

He added that Poland needs the shift in trans-Atlantic safety to be “not a divorce, but a new kind of relationship.”

For now, that relationship is being examined alongside a chilly, wooded border the place Poland says NATO’s future wars could already be taking form.

The Polish troopers patrolling the border don’t describe their mission in grand geopolitical phrases. Korkosz mentioned she joined the navy as a result of she needed to do “something that matters.”

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Members of Poland’s 18th “Iron Division” patrol the Belarus border as Warsaw accuses Belarus and Russia of funneling unlawful migrants towards NATO territory. May 16, 2026. (Efrat Lachter/Fox News Digital)

But to Polish officials, the mission at the Belarus border is a lot larger than immigration enforcement.

It is a warning to the remainder of NATO that the alliance’s next war could not start with tanks crossing a border, however with migrants pushed by way of forests, cyberattacks on power gridsdrones close to airports and disinformation campaigns designed to fracture societies from inside.