MLB trade deadline 2026: Winners and losers, one month later
Today marks the one-month anniversary of a frenetic 2026 MLB trade deadline. What, if something, has modified since then?
At the time, we did loads of quick-turn analysis and rating of each move, in addition to the deadline as a whole. But none of that was meant to be the ultimate phrase. It was our greatest try at an preliminary evaluation primarily based on the knowledge we had on the time, whereas contemplating the panorama because it stood in MLB when the deadline hit. In actuality, it would take years to totally untangle lots of the strikes made final month. That’s simply the time scale of baseball.
One month later, we nonetheless cannot make any closing proclamations about these strikes. The samples are simply too small. What we are able to do is take a recent take a look at all that motion by asking a easy query about each group: How has it labored out thus far?
In reconsidering the deadline one month in, we’ll preserve our give attention to the postseason races and not a lot the prospects who modified groups, gamers whose destinies are a great distance from being decided. The playoff chase is one thing completely different: On the morning of Nov. 1, if not sooner, we’ll know the whole lot we have to learn about that.
To sift by the deadline fallout, I developed a score to type the groups primarily based on how their fortunes developed and how their deadline acquisitions have carried out. I’ve additionally grouped them into tiers primarily based on how issues have gone.
Tier 1: Contenders whose deadline pickups have helped and whose playoff odds have improved
Atlanta Braves (Post-deadline score: 108.6)
Playoff% change: +0.3% | Pickup affect: 10.9
The Braves’ deadline would stand out if the one transfer made by Alex Anthopoulos was to amass starter Tyler Mahle from the Giants. That’s how good Mahle has been, posting a 1.48 ERA over 5 begins and rolling up 1.4 bWAR in his first month as a Brave. It’s probably not out of nowhere. He has been an excellent pitcher for a very long time, together with final season when he posted a 2.18 ERA in 16 begins for Texas. But he was simply 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA for San Francisco earlier than the trade. He allowed 5 runs in his final begin for the Giants — the identical variety of runs he gave up over his first 5 begins for the Braves.
Meanwhile, high-energy lefty Brent Suter has been a robust addition to the bullpen. Lane Thomas, the first addition to the lineup, has struggled, however by way of a brief, fast and much-needed affect, Mahle has so far been the perfect pickup of the deadline. As a membership, Atlanta has been established order — which in most cases can be adequate, however within the Braves’ case, they’re coping with a white-hot Phillies group operating them down within the division race.
Playoff% change: +8.6% | Pickup affect: 1.1
The Blue Jays had been on the fence on the deadline, not tearing down by any stretch however preserving the give attention to the long term on the identical time. Daulton Varsho and Kevin Gausman had been traded, however Gausman was instantly changed by ex-Angel Jose Soriano within the rotation. Former Cubs prospect Brett Bateman was a part of the return for Gausman, and whereas that was a big-picture transfer, he was added to the massive league roster and thus far has performed nicely as an on-base pace man on the plate and an affect defender.
The Blue Jays have received simply sufficient to stay on the perimeter of the American League wild-card cluster, an consequence that justifies their on-the-fence deadline method.
Playoff% change: +0.3% | Pickup affect: 3.3
The Rays had been successful a mean of 94 video games within the sims on the time of the deadline; that quantity has since reached 96.1, the sixth-biggest uptick within the majors. Meanwhile, the Rays rank fifth in participant affect from their acquisitions. In different phrases, thus far so good for Tampa Bay’s deadline efficiency. This score would not even embrace the obvious finish of the Rays’ interminable quest for a brand new ballpark.
As for these acquisitions, Freddy Peralta has made solely two high quality outings out of 5, however Liam Hicks has hit like Johnny Bench behind the plate and Tyler Wells has been a standout within the bullpen. If Peralta can construct on his promising final begin — six shutout innings in Detroit — this outlook solely will get higher.
Playoff% change: +3.2% | Pickup affect: 6.2
The Cubs are second behind Atlanta in deadline participant affect, however regardless of an epic month from the squad’s energy hitters, Chicago’s win projection hasn’t modified a lot. The Cubs’ pitching hasn’t fairly saved tempo with their scorching hitting, although each trajectories have been impacted by the climate at Wrigley Field. Clay Holmes has been implausible, stabilizing the rotation. The identical largely holds true for Gausman, although the veteran righty has blended in a few so-so outings with three good ones.
Other pickups have had shocking impacts. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor has a 1.027 OPS for his first 19 video games for the Cubs, and Aaron Civale‘s 1.54 ERA in a multi-inning aid position lessens the frustration over Ryan Zeferjahn‘s early struggles in Chicago.
Playoff% change: 0.0% | Pickup affect: 6.2
Technically, the Dodgers’ postseason odds did not go up — however that is simply because there was nowhere else to go: L.A. was at 100% then and stays so now.
The Dodgers’ deadline at this level comes all the way down to Tarik Skubal, who has pitched true to type however hasn’t gotten loads of help. His ERA over 5 begins (3.00) alongside along with his lone win would not mirror how nicely he has pitched, as evidenced by his 2.28 FIP.
The Dodgers have been so-so as a group over this span, which for them is sufficient to spur loads of hand-wringing about their means to drag off a three-peat. All we are able to say in the meanwhile is that no matter L.A.’s struggles is likely to be, they don’t seem to be Skubal’s fault.
Tier 2: Contenders whose deadline pickups have not helped however whose playoff odds have improved anyway
Playoff% change: +10.6% | Pickup affect: -0.9
It’s not shocking that the Orioles have a adverse pickup affect as a result of they had been very a lot in subtract mode on the deadline. Despite that, Baltimore has performed its greatest sustained baseball all season over the past month, even crawling again to the .500 mark.
Things have gone so nicely that the Orioles went into late-stage add mode, claiming ex-Met Luis Robert Jr. off waivers simply earlier than the cutoff for postseason eligibility. With Pete Alonso main the best way, the Orioles nonetheless have a shot at benefiting from that eligibility. It’s a superb instance of how a group’s deadline habits would not at all times correlate to the way it performs afterward.
Playoff% change: +34.2% | Pickup affect: -6.9
The Phillies have gone 19-7 because the deadline and improved their win projection within the simulations by greater than 5 wins, simply the most important uptick of the contending groups. Hard to complain about that.
At the identical time, their deadline exercise is not essentially straight related to their outcomes. Luis Arraez has felt like an ideal match for the Phillies’ lineup, however his precise output thus far (.704 OPS) has been modest. Brooks Raley has been fantastic within the bullpen. Both would possibly nonetheless play key roles for a group that has excessive October aspirations, however thus far, the Phillies have been on a roll for different causes.
Playoff% change: +13.5% | Pickup affect: -2.4
The Rangers are one other AL membership that has continued to muddle across the .500 mark, however that is sufficient, given their division and league, to maintain their playoff possibilities trending in the precise path. It’s like treading water even because the tide pushes you nearer to shore.
Texas had a quiet deadline as a fence-rider, and it hasn’t gotten a lot from main pickups Adam Macko, Chase Silseth and Logan O’Hoppe. The Rangers have continued to work the ends of their roster with depth strikes that do not fall below the umbrella of deadline exercise, so it isn’t like Chris Young and his employees are simply sitting on their arms. But the Rangers had been on the fence a month in the past and would stay so in the present day if the deadline had been a month later. Texas stays a tough group to learn.
Playoff% change: +14.3% | Pickup affect: -1.2
Jo Adell has been simply what the Guardians wanted, whereas doing the identical issues he was doing for the Angels. He has been one of the extra impactful deadline pickups thus far.
Cleveland as a complete has continued hovering round .500 over the past month. Likewise, the Guardians’ additions apart from Adell have been blended. Nathaniel Lowe has had a few good moments, however total has a 92 OPS+. Foster Griffin has been strong after a tough first begin after arriving from Washington. Craig Yoho has gotten frequent aid work, however the ex-Brewer has an ERA over 7.00.
Playoff% change: +29.6% | Pickup affect: -5.5
Despite flagging playoff odds and a roster that gave the impression to be going stale, A.J. Preller orchestrated an aggressive deadline method, as he’s wont to do, including Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to the rotation. Ray has been in full-blown Robbie Ray mode since arriving in San Diego, filling up the walks column but usually managing to efficiently traverse the excessive wire. Mize has been in all places from actually good to essentially not, however total his Padres ERA is nicely over 6.00.
Other pickups have not performed a lot. So the early returns have not been nice for the acquisitions, but the Padres rank fifth in post-deadline run differential and have solidified their playoff odds. They want that momentum to proceed and, for that, they determine to wish extra consistency from their deadline provides.
Playoff% change: +0.1% | Pickup affect: -5.3
Most of Milwaukee’s pickups thus far have proved to be organizational depth. Of those that have performed a lot of a task with the massive league membership, Dustin May has fallen off after two good begins upon being sprinkled with the Brewers’ magic pixie mud, and Antonio Senzatela hasn’t been in a position to work himself right into a high-leverage position.
The excellent news: The Brewers simply preserve rolling and appear like a superb guess to repeat because the National League’s high seed.
Playoff% change: +1.6% | Pickup affect: -5.9
The Yankees’ play has ticked up because the deadline. It’s not due to Brian Cashman’s pickups, in complete. Heliot Ramos has hit .148 and managed to get a half-win beneath substitute in only a month as a Yankee. His tough begin has been offset by strong hitting from Luis Garcia Jr. (0.6 bWAR, 133 OPS+). It’s a wash between New York’s two deadline additions.
Nothing a lot has modified for the Yankees. All season targets stay on the desk, and the possibilities of reaching them is likely to be decided by when Aaron Judge is again and how rapidly he can return to type.
Playoff% change: +4.0% | Pickup affect: -4.2
The Red Sox have been simply over .500 because the deadline, ok to nudge their playoff odds in the precise path despite the fact that the run prevention has been lackluster throughout that stretch. Only 5 groups have given up extra post-deadline runs. Surprising addition Erik Miller has been dynamite as a bullpen lefty, so the adverse affect is not on him. But Curtis Mead was injured in his first recreation for Boston and Adley Rutschman hasn’t hit. None of this has impeded Boston’s progress, and it will be unsurprising if the second month for the pickups proves to be higher than the primary.
We ought to observe that if you wish to rely Jahmai Jones as a deadline pickup, which we do not as a result of it was a mid-July, DFA-related transfer, the participant affect quantity can be higher. Jones has been off the charts in his position as a lefty-mashing righty bat off the bench, hitting .481/.600/1.037 in 35 plate appearances in opposition to southpaws since becoming a member of Boston.
Playoff% change: +20.1% | Pickup affect: -7.2
The White Sox have performed higher than .500 ball for weeks now, ok to broaden their edge within the AL Central race and preserve them out in entrance of the important thing chase for the circuit’s No. 2 playoff seed.
If Chris Getz’s deadline pickups had finished extra, the White Sox would possibly already be counting down their AL Central magic quantity. Joey Bart was injured, stopping him from filling Chicago’s gap behind the plate. Luis Castillo has been even worse for the White Sox than he was for the Mariners, and that is saying one thing. Huascar Brazoban not solely did not emerge as a high-leverage possibility earlier than occurring the injured record, he did not appear like an enormous league reliever, posting a 6.30 ERA with a 6.49 FIP. Brenton Doyle‘s incapability so as to add a lot on the plate maybe contributed to Getz’s late-month pivot to amass Tommy Pham and Jake Cave. All of this stuff can enhance, and for the White Sox to complete off their superb Cinderella push, they most likely ought to.
Tier 3: Contender whose pickups have helped however whose playoff odds have dropped
Playoff% change: -30.2% | Pickup affect: 1.1
Arizona has performed shedding baseball because the deadline, each within the win-loss columns and by way of run differential. So despite the fact that the Diamondbacks stay neck and neck with the Padres within the push for the NL’s final playoff slot, the simulations have began to desire the new Padres.
The downturn in Arizona’s playoff probabilities is an nearly actual match for San Diego’s uptick. Arizona made solely one deadline transfer, including Lars Nootbaar from St. Louis. Nootbaar has performed strong ball, having fun with a few large moments which have paid off within the win chance element of AXE whereas getting on base persistently. Still, if the Diamondbacks fall wanting the playoff bracket, Mike Hazen’s passive deadline would possibly deserve some scrutiny.
Tier 4: Contender whose pickups have not helped and whose playoff odds have dropped
Playoff% change: -0.8% | Pickup affect: -1.6
The Astros have not performed nicely because the deadline, and their one vital addition, heart fielder Daulton Varsho, has hit so poorly he hasn’t come shut to creating up for it along with his plus protection. Houston has outplayed its post-deadline run differential by a few video games or this is able to look even worse.
The Astros had been in an add place and would stay so, however that is not as a result of their roster is shut to finish. It’s simply how the AL West panorama shapes up. Maybe the roster had too many holes to handle on the deadline, however you would argue that if the Astros had been going to make solely one deadline splash, possibly they need to have addressed their rotation.
Tier 5: Teams all however out of rivalry
Minnesota Twins (101.4)
Pittsburgh Pirates (101.4)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3)
Miami Marlins (98.9)
Detroit Tigers (89.0)
Seattle Mariners (86.8)
All of those golf equipment had been fence-sitters on the deadline, or no less than had been flagged as such by their playoff probabilities. Despite that, the Twins and Pirates added on deadline day, and whereas the contributions from the pickups of each groups have been encouraging, it hasn’t prevented a bleeding of playoff odds. Together, the Twins and Pirates have gone 22-29 regardless of the manufacturing of additives like A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer (Twins) and Camilo Doval and Kirby Yates (Pirates). At least they tried.
The Cardinals and Marlins each subtracted on the deadline and have gone on a lot as they did earlier than, remaining on the outer perimeter of wild-card rivalry, which is healthier than a collapse however none too inspiring. The Tigers and Mariners, alternatively, have collapsed one 12 months after they confronted one another within the division collection.
Tier 6: Noncontenders
Kansas City Royals (111.0)
New York Mets (108.9)
Colorado Rockies (100.2)
Cincinnati Reds (99.9)
Washington Nationals (98.2)
San Francisco Giants (96.8)
Athletics (93.3)
Los Angeles Angels (90.7)
All of those groups appropriately subtracted on the deadline, although the Royals had been pretty passive in doing so. Still, they, together with the Mets, have performed a lot better baseball because the deadline, reminding their followers of why they’d excessive hopes when the season started. Of course, that type of factor can exacerbate the frustrations of a fanbase questioning the place these wins had been a number of months in the past. Of the 2, the Mets are in additional of an total reshuffling than the Royals, a course of that shall be aided by what was baseball’s largest haul of prospects throughout the deadline interval.
The Royals, alternatively, have regarded just like the offensive group we thought they may very well be as their lineup has gotten more healthy. That has paid off in wins as a result of the fully made-over bullpen has been way more dependable, even because it’s constructed on the work of recycled veterans like Nate Pearson and future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel. It’s a key lesson: If a bullpen combine is not working, shake it up sooner quite than later as a result of a lot of bullpen administration is a continuing catching of lightning in a bottle.