Boise State looks to stay hot, get revenge on the road against Grand Canyon
After a four-game losing streak that dropped Boise State to their worst start in conference play since 2012, the Broncos have won four in a row and are back to 5-5 in Mountain West play. The season felt like it could be on the brink of collapse after an overtime loss on the road to UNLV, but this Bronco squad has battled back and put themselves back into position to compete for a top-4 seed in the conference.
Boise State will look to make it five in a row on Friday against Grand Canyon. The Lopes won the previous matchup on January 7 by 17 points – a performance so poor it led Leon Rice to rip his team during the postgame press conference. KenPom has the Broncos as a two-point underdog, and they’ll need to find an upset to get to above .500 in conference play for the first time this season.
Can the Broncos beat the top half of the league?
The current win streak has come in large part due to easier competition. The Broncos are 4-0 against the teams with a losing record in Mountain West play, and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. The wins have been dominant, by an average margin of 20.8, but the losses have been similarly lopsided, with an average margin of defeat of 12.8.
EvanMiya, a college basketball analytics tool, has Boise State currently ranked 357th in its opponent adjustment metric. The opponent adjustment metric tracks how much a team over/under performs their ranking against better competition. The Broncos’ 357th ranking underscores two things:
- They’ve largely dominated worse competition since the season-opening loss to Hawaii Pacific.
- They’ve underperformed against top competition this season
Grand Canyon falls into the latter category. The Lopes are 74th in EvanMiya and 75th in KenPom, and already have a double-digit win over the Broncos. Friday will be a good test of whether Boise State’s improvement over the past two weeks is real, or because of the weaker competition they faced.
Who takes care of the ball?
Both Boise State and Grand Canyon are two of the worst teams in the Mountain West at forcing turnovers – the Broncos currently rank 10th and the Lopes come in just ahead of them at 9th. Leon Rice’s squad has largely avoided turnovers in conference play, sitting at 4th in turnover rate, but Grand Canyon has tended to get loose with the ball, with the 8th highest turnover rate in conference play.
Despite this being a seeming advantage for Boise State, they lost the turnover battle 14-12 in the first matchup, which was the second-highest turnover rate forced by Grand Canyon in a conference game this season. Likewise, it was Boise State’s second-worst turnover performance in a conference game this season. A lot went wrong in that first contest for the Broncos, but turning the ball over at that rate against a team that doesn’t typically force turnovers only made things harder. If the Broncos are going to get their revenge in Phoenix, taking care of the basketball will be a critical part of doing so.
What role does Bhan Buom play?
Leon Rice is always full of surprises. Just when you think the Broncos have a tight nine-man rotation with clearly defined roles, true freshman Bhan Buom starts playing real rotational minutes. Buom got 21 minutes against Air Force and 10 minutes against San Jose State, getting to check in early in the game both times. Was it a case of Rice opting to give a talented freshman some meaningful minutes against lesser opponents, or was it preparing Buom for a bigger role down the stretch?
The Broncos struggled with Grand Canyon’s length and athleticism in the last matchup, particularly in trying to slow down Jaden Henley. Grand Canyon’s 6-7 wing had 22 points including 9-for-12 shooting from inside the arc, and the Broncos could not find a consistent option to guard Henley. For most of the first half it was AG Neto, who struggled with Henley’s size, and to start the second half it was Andrew Meadow on Henley, who often looked a step too slow.
The Broncos could try to get more minutes with Javan Buchanan guarding Henley, but given the offensive burden he carries, they may opt to try out Bhan Buom on Grand Canyon’s best player. It’s possible the increased role against Air Force and San Jose State were to prepare Buom for this moment.
With that said, it’s just as likely that Rice knew the Broncos had three games in six days, including two on the road, and wanted to keep his starters as fresh as possible. In which case, maybe Buom doesn’t play at all. However, his minutes have been encouraging, he’s averaging 8 points per game on 69% eFG% in those two games and his BPR (Bayesian Performance Rating) has climbed to 0.98 according to EvanMiya, which is comparable to Spencer Ahrens, AG Neto and Dylan Andrews. What role Buom plays could be an X-factor for the Broncos on Friday.
Venue matters
After Boise State’s loss to Grand Canyon, Leon Rice acknowledged it was “maybe the worst crowd we’ve had,” and alluded to it being a neutral court game.
Friday’s game in Phoenix will not be a neutral court game.
Grand Canyon’s GCU Arena is one of the best atmospheres in college basketball, comparable to Utah State, San Diego State or New Mexico. The Lopes are 3-1 in Mountain West play at home this season and 9-2 including in non-conference games. Given it’s a Friday night game with a 7:00 tip, it’s sure to be a raucous atmosphere.
Prediction
For two teams that I think are fairly comparable in terms of talent, this is a game I would expect the crowd to make a difference in. While the Broncos have looked much better in the past couple of weeks, I do think it’s likely more about their opponents than the Broncos. Expect a better performance than the one we saw in ExtraMile Arena at the start of the month, but ultimately, I would take the Lopes in this spot.
Grand Canyon 66, Boise State 60
