Giants-Rays Series Preview: The Rays have done it again
Coming off again to again shedding seasons, Baseball’s intelligentsia and proprietary projection methods had it out for the Tampa Bay Rays this previous winter. MLB.com ranked them twenty second earlier than a pitch was even thrown and a pair of experts did not predict them to be aggressive within the Wild Card race. PECOTA projected 81 or 82 wins whereas ZiPS bleep-blooped a 74-win crew. But they’ve began the 18-12 season, demonstrating a return to their historic monitor document of flustering prognosticators with their very own model of data-driven baseball.
How are they doing this? They’re not the very best offense. Their crew wRC+ of 97 is ranked sixteenth in MLB, as are their 137 runs scored. They do lead the American League in stolen bases with 34, however I’ll discuss these extra in a bit. Their 8.9% is pedestrian (twenty second) as is their .128 ISO (twenty fifth), however their sparkly 19.1 Ok% as a crew is second-best behind solely the Blue Jays. Their crew OBP of .327 is tenth in MLB and once they get on base not solely can they use their crew velocity to steal, they’ll additionally use it to run the bases properly. Their +1.4 Baserunning Runs is seventh in MLB (the Giants are, after all, useless final on this class, as they’re with most issues as a result of they seem to be a dangerous baseball crew).
commercial
Leading the Rays on this baserunning prowess is 25-year outdated Chandler Simpson, who’s already at +1.2 Baserunning runs by means of 30 video games. He is extremely quick (29.6 ft/sec dash velocity — 99th percentile). Here’s a spotlight video put out by MLB.com from his 2025 rookie season and in case you watch it you may discover that he has uncommon velocity due to the place he’s when the digital camera angle adjustments. He is already 75% of the way in which to second base by the point the catcher uncorks a throw, for instance. Or when the digital camera cuts from the pitcher’s mound angle to the outfield angle, he is already closed the hole in order that he is taking only a few steps to make the defensive play.
There can be an early spotlight of a bunt that made my abdomen rumble pondering when imagining the Giants having to defend it.
Speaking of the Giants, our favourite crew (sadly), this Chandler Simpson fellow is Buster Posey‘s platonic ideally suited of a Giant. He performs nice protection (already +4 Outs Above Average in left and +2.4 Defensive Runs Above Average), makes loads of contact and does not stroll very a lot (.314/.349/.356 with a 5.4 Ok% and seven.8 BB%) and is quick. He’s simply 1 shy (37) of the crew lead for hits, trailing solely the veteran Yandy Diaz (38). He has simply 1 double and a couple of triples. If the Giants do not hold him off base, it’s going to be a tough collection.
commercial
But it’s not there Chandler Simpson right here. Diaz is off to a different nice begin, main the Rays with a 152 wRC+ and a very nice 9.8 BB% to 12 Ok%. 22-year outdated sensation Junior Caminero hit 45 residence runs final season and has 8 already in 2026. But additionally — and here is the place issues get actually Rays-y — 27-year outdated Jonathan Aranda he has 7 homers in his first 132 PA after hitting simply 24 in his prior 755 throughout 4 seasons. He’ll flip 27 on the finish of the month and so it’s solely potential that he is setup to have Casey Schmittesque breakout age-27 season.
The Rays are always retooling and counting on these breakouts. They traded away longtime Ray Brandon Lowetheir nearer Pete Fairbanksplatoon outfielder Josh Loweand launched lefty reliever Mason Montgomery and Adrian Houser. Their offseason transactions web page (as assembled by MLB Trade Rumors) is really quite something. They did, basically, exchange these gamers within the combination by means of trades and some free agent signings. Houser is now Nick Martinezwho’s off to a terrific begin (1.70 ERA in 6 begins). Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe are a mix of Jonathan Aranda and Jake Fraley? They acquired Ryan Vilade from the Reds to make him a utility participant. He had 71 PA earlier than this season and an MLB profession triple slash of .141/.200/.188, however in his first 35 PA with the Rays, he is hitting .344/.400/.406.
On the pitching facet, not solely has Nick Martinez dazzled, however Steven Matz has been strong (4.31 ERA in 6 begins). Their nearer, Bryan Bakerwas acquired throughout final 12 months’s commerce deadline and has capably changed Pete Fairbanks within the function (7 saves in 11.1 IP, 2.78 FIP). Overall, although, their pitching employees has been about pretty much as good because the Giants’, which is to say that it’s mainly mediocre. They’ve additionally used simply 32 gamers (the Giants have used 31). So, why the early season success?
Well, apart from taking part in in Tropicana Field for the primary time since it was closely broken by Hurricane Milton, I’d say these two stats clarify it:
commercial
With runners in scoring place (312 PA), they’ve hit .271/.349/.382. That’s 38 extra plate appearances in comparison with the Giants, who’re hitting .254/.301/.385 in the identical conditions. The batting common, for individuals who can solely see that quantity, is ranked ninth in MLB. The Giants’ .254 is 14th.
The pitching employees’s .251 batting common on balls in play leads the game by an honest quantity (atlanta is #2 at .256, the Dodgers #3 at .260). However, the Rays’ protection (Chandler Simpson excepted) has been poor, rating twenty eighth by FanGraphs’ measure with a -12.5 Defensive Runs Above Average (the Giants are sixteenth with -4.1). The solely clarification is that their employees is funky, and when you think about the appears given by Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, and Shane McLanahan, earlier than even contemplating the bullpen, that makes loads of sense. Combine the funk with the Twenty sixth-ranked Park Factor, and it would appear that they’re a naturally tough crew to hit, even when their crew ERA and all of the anticipated pitching stats have them within the 4.00s.
OK, there’s additionally a secret third factor: regardless of being a crew within the extremely aggressive AL East, they’ve solely had one collection towards an AL East crew. Sure, they swept the Yankees in Tropicana Field, however nonetheless! One collection towards a troublesome division. The remainder of their schedule thus far has been Cardinals, BrewersTwins (6 video games!), Cubs, White SoxPirates, Reds, and cleveland.
The Giants are going to attempt to brute power their means by means of this statistically optimized roster to get some wins. Will the Giants’ “Trust Yer Gut” Baseball frustrate the time examined and profitable monitor document of the Rays mannequin? Skepticism is warranted!
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (13-18) at Tampa Bay Rays (18-12)
Where: Tropicana Field | St. Petersburgh, Florida
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 3:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Friday: Robbie Ray (LHP 2-3, 2.70 ERA) vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP 2-2, 3.91 ERA)
Saturday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-1, 2.55 ERA) vs. TBD
Sunday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 1-4, 5.87 ERA) vs. Steven Matz (LHP 4-1, 4.31 ERA)
Players to look at
Rays
Chandler Simpson: I talked about him lots already, so, perhaps this could’ve been Cedric Mullinsone of many different offseason additions and one I did not point out as a result of he is been dangerous. .126/.184/.232 mm 105 plate appearances. Not good protection in heart (-0.9 Defensive Runs Above Average, -1 Outs Above Average) and an actual drag on the roster (-0.7 fWAR). We simply watched a moribund franchise flip their season round towards the Giants. What a few single participant?
commercial
Junior Caminero: I talked about him already, so, perhaps this could’ve been a blurb about second baseman Ben Williamson. Okay, certain, let’s try this. He got here to the Rays by way of a 3 crew commerce again in February between the MarinersRays, and Cardinals. That’s the commerce that despatched Brendan Donovan to seattle. Williamson was the Mariners’ 2nd spherical draft choose of 2023. In 188 MiLB video games (825 PA) he hit .291/.377/.415 with 30 stolen bases and a few 2:1 strikeouts to stroll ratio (superb). Last 12 months, he received into 85 video games for Seattle and that Ok:BB shot as much as 4:1 and his triple slash of .253/.294/.310 wasn’t nice. But not each rookie hits the bottom operating. In 27 video games with the Rays up to now, he is hitting .250/.318/.338 with a 2:1 Ok:BB. No homers but, however 5 doubles, a triple, and a trio of SBs.
Casey Legumina: The Rays simply traded for him from the Mariners (actually April twenty fourth) and I’m attempting to determine what the Rays see on this 28-year outdated reliever who has bounced round a bit. Well, he has a ten.1 Ok/9 within the minors, so, that is a begin. But in 84.1 MLB innings, a 5.76 ERA, 1.3 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, and eight.8 Ok/9. Not good. He has a 4 seam fastball and a sinker and each common 93-94. His sweeper, although, is excessive spin (2,744 rpm). Okay, properly, perhaps that is it. Except… no. In his first look for the Rays on April twenty ninth, he turned a fastball-changeup man. So, I may be slightly to see if they will have him restrict the sweeper and play up his change.
Giants
Do we have to?
commercial
Casey Schmitt: Look, yesterday, I gushed about the guand. Is he the subsequent Rich Aurilia?
Tyler Mahle: It can be good if he had begin. He’s by no means pitched at Tropicana Field earlier than.
Rafael Devers: Tropicana Field is a troublesome place to hit and in order that’s one thing to remember as Giants followers attempt to maintain out hope that Rafael Devers will return to being in the course of the order power. But additionally, in 55 video games there, he is hit simply .230/.303/.382 with 7 homers.
Tony Vitello watch
It’s beginning to really feel like he is deferring an excessive amount of to his coaches and the entrance workplace’s steering and I’m wondering if when the crew hits all-time low he’ll lastly have the ability to unleash the supposedly nice baseball man that is in there. Things should not trying too good proper now and it does look like the worst fears of this setup are coming to cross.
commercial
I have a troublesome time embracing the concept he ought to be given grace whereas he adjusts to this new context. I feel a few of the individuals asking for this are primarily projecting themselves into their cleats moderately than staying exterior of the matter, and I feel others merely have low expectations generally. The Giants did not have to provide him this job and it’s okay to anticipate excellence in a excessive stress, excessive standing, excessive profile place. Of course, when groups are pungent doo-doo losers just like the Giants are, the clubhouse chatter will get slightly extra fraught and the supervisor has fewer solutions. More stress in a stress state of affairs can be tough for any expertise stage in that place.
Prediction time
Surely, the Giants will win a recreation on this collection. Surely!…?
