Your men’s Final Four guide: Illinois-UConn, Arizona-Michigan (with predictions!)

The 2026 version of the men’s NCAA match has introduced all of the insanity that makes March, together with early-round upsets, buzzer-beaters and one shining second (or a couple of).

The street ends in Indianapolis, the place 4 top-three seeds will face off in Saturday’s Final Four for an opportunity to advance to Monday’s nationwide championship recreation.

ESPN’s faculty basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf have been following these groups all season. Here are the elements they see deciding UConn-Illinois and Arizona-Michigan.

6:09 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to learn about UConn

How the Huskies reached the Final Four:

• Round of 64: 82-71 vs. No. 15 Furman

• Round of 32: 73-57 vs. No. 7 UCLA

• Sweet 16: 67-63 vs. No. 3 Michigan State

• Elite Eight: 73-72 vs. No. 1 Duke

No. 1 issue that helped UConn attain the Final Four: Tarris Reed Jr. and the expertise to take care of the kind of persistence the Huskies wanted to cope with a Duke group that had a 19-point lead within the first half has pushed them right here. Three gamers within the beginning rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for a minimum of two years, a rarity within the present panorama. Illinois would be the solely group in Indianapolis that may match that.

Hurley is as nice at recruiting as he’s at retention. Freshman Braylon Mullins has had an up-and-down season, seemingly by no means hitting his stride constantly, however he was a five-star recruit for a cause. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he hit the largest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to ship UConn again to the Final Four.

The Huskies additionally held Duke to a clip of 100 factors per 100 possessions within the second half after the Blue Devils had scored at 147 factors per 100 possessions within the first half. UConn stored combating and gained.

Player who must step up: Solo Ball

Ball has had extra lows than highs over the previous month. The 6-foot-4 guard has gone chilly, averaging 8.5 factors per recreation in March, down from his 14.1 mark between November and February. When Ball is a playmaker, although, the Huskies are a greater group. He scored 15 factors when UConn defeated Illinois 74-61 in November. He recorded a respective 17 and 19 factors towards ranked Kansas and Florida groups in December. The Huskies are a special squad when he’s hitting photographs; a resurgence might change their fortunes in Indianapolis.

Potential deadly flaw: UConn would not create as many free throw alternatives for itself because it does for opponents.

Dan Hurley’s group is without doubt one of the worst in America in the case of placing opponents on the free throw line, rating 307th out of 365 groups on KenPom. It additionally is without doubt one of the worst groups at producing free throw makes an attempt (306th). In the Huskies’ 5 losses, they’d 80 free throw makes an attempt mixed, whereas their opponents had 128. That issues for this specific matchup as a result of no group in America sends opponents to the free throw line much less typically than Illinois — the No. 1 group in defensive free throw charge — and it additionally ranks 14th nationally with a 78% charge from the charity stripe.

UConn will win if: Illinois has been the most effective offensive group within the nation, but it surely additionally performed elite protection towards Houston within the Sweet 16 and Iowa within the Elite Eight. UConn should remedy that. The Huskies have measurement permitting them to play a restrictive zone that has stifled opponents. Houston and Iowa each made underneath 40% of their photographs contained in the arc towards Illinois, so UConn’s recreation plan has to start with Reed, who has scored a minimum of 20 factors in three of his previous 4 video games. The Huskies’ massive man was dominant towards Duke, and he should be nice within the publish so the Fighting Illini cannot get snug in that zone. The Huskies additionally should exploit the pockets in Illinois’ protection; Reed’s manufacturing would be the key to reaching that.

On protection, all of it begins with guarding Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have a number of guards they will throw on the 6-foot-5 projected NBA draft lottery choose. UConn cannot permit the freshman to place up massive numbers.

Protecting the rim towards one of many largest groups in Indianapolis additionally will matter. — Medcalf

What to learn about Illinois

How the Fighting Illini reached the Final Four:

• Round of 64: 105-70 vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania

• Round of 32: 76-55 vs. No. 11 VCU

• Sweet 16: 65-55 vs. No. 2 Houston

• Elite Eight: 71-59 vs. No. 9 Iowa

No. 1 issue that helped Illinois attain the Final Four: The Illini’s offense is without doubt one of the best in KenPom historical past, but it surely was their protection that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 factors and 0.83 factors per possession within the spherical of 32, Houston to 55 factors and 0.94 factors per possession within the Sweet 16 and Iowa to 59 factors and 1.08 factors per possession within the Elite Eight. They have protected the rim and the paint at an extremely excessive degree, limiting all three of the aforementioned opponents to beneath 48% contained in the arc. (Iowa had solely seven 2-pointers on Saturday.)

It’s a dramatic enchancment from their defensive efficiency late within the common season, when the Illini noticed six of their remaining 9 opponents rating a minimum of 1.17 factors per possession, struggling 5 of their eight losses over that stretch. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, however their protection all of a sudden wanting like a top-10 unit has been a season-changing growth for coach Brad Underwood’s group.

Player who must step up: David Mirkovic.

Illinois clearly wants Keaton Wagler to excel in an effort to win this recreation, however Mirkovic’s efforts at each ends of the ground will probably be key. UConn ahead Alex Karaban was a legal responsibility defensively within the first half towards Duke, unable to defend Cameron Boozer (and sometimes Patrick Ngongba II) within the low publish. Can Mirkovic rating towards Karaban on the block? According to Synergy, almost 44% of Mirkovic’s shot makes an attempt this season got here on the rim, together with 141 layup or dunk makes an attempt.

Defensively, Mirkovic has to chase Karaban round countless screens and off-ball actions to ensure he would not get going offensively. When Karaban is hitting photographs like he was within the first three rounds of the NCAA match, UConn operates at a special degree at that finish of the ground.

Potential deadly flaw: Reliance on the 3-pointer.

Given its propensity for capturing treys, Illinois will be reliant on the perimeter shot — and if it isn’t falling, that will probably be massively helpful to UConn. In wins this season, the Illini are capturing almost 36% from 3; in losses, that quantity drops to 31.8%. It’s value noting that they’ve made double-digit 3s in a recreation simply as soon as since March 3 after doing it in 18 of the earlier 22 outings. They went simply 3-for-17 from 3 within the Elite Eight towards Iowa and nonetheless scored almost 1.30 factors per possession.

Illinois will win if: The largest key will probably be to restrict Reed — or get him into foul bother. Reed has been some of the dominant massive males of this NCAA match, and his potential to attain on the rim in single protection has bailed out the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter capturing. But with middle Eric Reibe not almost as efficient as he was earlier within the season, UConn takes an enormous hit at each ends of the court docket when Reed is out.

The different key would be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s as soon as since Feb. 18, however they have not given up double-digit made 3s over that very same span. Illinois makes an attempt 3s at the next charge than nearly any group within the nation, whereas UConn’s shotmakers — Karaban, Ball and Mullins — have been inconsistent. The Illini might outshoot the Huskies.

Illinois’ defensive turnaround additionally has to proceed. The Illini have had a top-10 protection for the reason that begin of the NCAA match, however they ranked outdoors the highest 25 in adjusted defensive effectivity up till that time. They have been susceptible to some actual howlers towards environment friendly offensive groups, even in February and early March. UConn, regardless of its inconsistencies from the perimeter, was probably the most environment friendly offensive group within the Big East. — Borzello

UConn vs. Illinois Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 77-73

8:49 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to learn about Arizona

How the Wildcats reached the Final Four:

• Round of 64: 92-58 vs. No. 16 Long Island

• Round of 32: 78-66 vs. No. 9 Utah State

• Sweet 16: 109-88 vs. No. 4 Arkansas

• Elite Eight: 79-64 vs. No. 2 Purdue

No. 1 issue that helped: The Wildcats’ relentlessness within the paint has been unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered within the NCAA match.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth within the nation in paint factors, averaging greater than 42. It additionally led the nation in free throw makes an attempt with almost 20 factors per recreation on the line. Against one other dominant paint group in Arkansas within the Sweet 16, Arizona had maybe probably the most environment friendly inside efficiency ever seen in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint factors and 30 factors from the free throw line, probably the most mixed factors in an NCAA match recreation prior to now 20 years. Then, after Purdue matched them down low within the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats performed with an elevated urgency and imposed their will within the second half. The Wildcats completed with 40 paint factors and 20 factors from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a mixed 28 factors in these areas.

It’s not simply the publish scoring from Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas or the offensive rebounding from Tobe Awaka; it is also the relentless attacking from Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint factors, and it is mirrored in each a part of his group’s offense.

Player who must step up: Kharchenkov.

While Burries and Peat garner many of the consideration, it is the third freshman in Arizona’s beginning lineup who would be the key to this one. Kharchenkov has been terrific within the NCAA match, averaging 14.0 factors and 6.5 rebounds, together with an 18-point, eight-rebound efficiency towards Purdue within the Elite Eight. His physicality and aggressiveness on the offensive glass gives a carry for Arizona. He additionally is without doubt one of the finest defensive gamers within the nation. He’ll seemingly be the first defender on Yaxel Lendeborg, which arguably will probably be Kharchenkov’s hardest take a look at but. Can Kharchenkov preserve Lendeborg off the offensive glass, out of transition and restrict his influence off the bounce — all whereas Kharchenkov gives his traditional vitality on the offensive finish? He’ll need to be as much as the duty.

Potential deadly flaw: Lack of 3-point capturing.

It has been Arizona’s clear weak spot for the reason that begin of the season. So, sure, you would argue that it hasn’t mattered but, however the Wildcats are such an enormous outlier in latest historical past in the case of 3-point quantity. They rank No. 363 nationally in 3-point try charge and No. 361 in proportion of factors from 3s, and so they have made double-digit 3-pointers simply 4 occasions all season (and solely as soon as since Dec. 13). They’re so good within the paint and on the defensive finish that they are nonetheless able to dominating. But the Wildcats did not get going offensively towards Purdue till they hit a couple of perimeter photographs to loosen up the Boilermakers’ protection within the second half of the Elite Eight. Hitting even six or seven 3s might show crucial for Tommy Lloyd’s group.

Arizona will win if: This would be the final strength-on-strength battle within the paint, however Arizona is extra reliant — and higher — at dominating the glass and ending on the rim. That’s the important thing right here. The Wildcats are within the prime 5 nationally in paint factors per recreation and offensive rebound proportion, and so they lead the nation in free throw makes an attempt per recreation. Michigan, in the meantime, is within the prime 5 in 2-point protection, block charge and common 2-point try distance defensively. The Wolverines additionally restrict their fouling. Can Arizona proceed to regulate the paint towards a group that may match it from a measurement and physicality perspective?

It’s the identical scenario on the different finish of the court docket. Michigan shoots higher than 61% contained in the arc and ranks within the prime 20 in paint factors and second-chance factors per recreation. Arizona should win the inside battle on each ends.

The Wildcats additionally must restrict Michigan’s transition alternatives. Tennessee is pretty much as good as any group in faculty basketball at defensive transition — and the Wolverines torched the Volunteers. Michigan scores greater than 13 fast-break factors per recreation in wins, based on CBB Analytics, and greater than seven per recreation in losses. It is extremely environment friendly offensively. But the Wolverines do not essentially have a variety of gamers able to breaking down defenses in late-clock and late-game conditions; if Arizona can power them to play nearly solely within the half court docket, that can assist. — Borzello

What to learn about Michigan

How the Wolverines reached the Final Four:

• Round of 64: 101-80 vs. No. 16 Howard

• Round of 32: 95-72 vs. No. 9 Saint Louis

• Sweet 16: 90-77 vs. No. 4 Alabama

• Elite Eight: 95-62 vs. No. 6 Tennessee

No. 1 issue that helped Michigan attain the Final Four: The Wolverines can shortly shift gears and attain a degree few groups are in a position to match. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably probably the most full recreation we have seen by any group within the NCAA match. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48-26 within the first half and held them to only 85 factors per 100 possessions. With 10:52 to play within the first half, Tennessee had a 16-15 lead over Michigan; the Wolverines then launched a 33-10 rally to finish the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his palms. What can anybody do when Michigan performs that approach?

The Wolverines are massive, have stars and play nice protection — and when it is time to stand their floor and battle, no group is best. That’s why Michigan made it to Indianapolis.

Player who must step up: Morez Johnson Jr.

Johnson has been terrific this season, together with all through the NCAA match, however he’ll need to be a flexible defender towards an Arizona group with an eight-man rotation on this one. Arizona was in a position to launch its comeback towards Purdue partially due to the Wildcats’ potential to create mismatches. Peat scored over smaller defenders. Burries hit a 3-pointer as massive man Oscar Cluff chased him. Bradley drove by means of the lane, forcing the Boilermakers to ship additional defenders. Defensive matchups are by no means constant towards Arizona, so Johnson should play like a free security at occasions, roaming the ground wherever defensive assist is required.

Potential deadly flaw: Offensive breakdowns when not making 3-pointers.

Michigan is almost flawless by the numbers. The Wolverines have three former facilities of their beginning rotation — every a projected first-round NBA draft choose — and so they’ve misplaced simply three video games. But there may be one widespread thread in these defeats: The groups that beat Michigan performed nice perimeter protection. No group in America can cease this Michigan frontcourt from impacting the sport within the paint. In its losses, nevertheless, Michigan completed 21-for-74 (28%) from 3 in these matchups. If the Wildcats can strain Michigan’s backcourt and have an effect on its potential to vary the sport with success from past the arc, that would affect the result.

Michigan will win if: The Wolverines should power the Wildcats to take photographs outdoors the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a extremely tough group to compete towards when it might get downhill, penetrate and assault groups within the lane. The Wildcats are within the prime 10 nationally in drawing fouls and attending to the free throw line; that has been their bread and butter, and so they’re higher at that tactic than any group in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan has to increase Arizona’s protection by capturing nicely from the 3-point line. The Wildcats’ 4 NCAA match opponents struggled from past the arc, however the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is compelled to concentrate on what the Wolverines are doing on the perimeter, that can create extra room for Michigan’s Lendeborg, Johnson and Aday Mara to function within the lane.

Still, towards this sturdy of an Arizona group, Michigan may want Lendeborg to be the standout with a high-level efficiency corresponding to the 27-point effort he produced towards Tennessee within the Elite Eight. — Medcalf

Arizona vs. Michigan Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 78-76