MBB Preview: Missouri tips off final week of regular season at Oklahoma
When | Tuesday; 6:00 pm CT
Where | Lloyd Noble Center; Norman, Okla.
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
KenPom prediction | Oklahoma -5
ESPN win chance | 39.6% probability
G: TO Barrett (SO, 8.9 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 13.9 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.6 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.4 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 9.2 PPG)
G: Nigel Pack (R-SR, 16.1 PPG)
G: Xzayvier Brown (JR, 15.6 PPG)
F: Derrion Reid (SO, 11.3 PPG)
F: Tae Davis (SR, 12.1 PPG)
F: Mohamed Wague (SR, 6.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jadon Jones (R-SR, 5.8 PPG)
Note: these beginning lineups are projected.
Get to know Oklahoma: a workforce that is beginning to trigger some issues within the SEC
Mizzou took down the Sooners with the assistance of not one, however two buzzer beaters again in late January. Here’s what I needed to say forward of that matchup:
Oklahoma ranked as excessive as tenth within the nation final season following an undefeated run by way of non-conference play, however the traditionally sturdy SEC shortly broke the Sooners down. OU went simply 6-12 in convention play regardless of having eventual top-10 NBA Draft choose Jeremiah Fears on its roster and dropped its first spherical NCAA Tournament matchup to UConn, ending an once-promising season on a bitter be aware.
The quick March Madness look was the primary of Porter Moser’s now five-year tenure in Norman, a disappointing consequence for a program that employed him when he was one of essentially the most sought-after coaches in America following two Sweet Sixteen berths at Loyola Chicago. But Oklahoma’s event berth final season cooled Moser’s sizzling seat… if just for just a little bit.
The Sooners returned only one participant who made a begin on that workforce, Mohamed Wague, and two gamers who averaged over 10 minutes per recreation.
Forced to work with a virtually clear slate, Moser rebuilt his roster with 4 key transfers which have began each recreation this season for OU and rank first by way of fourth on the workforce in minutes. Oklahoma paired up tremendous senior Nigel Pack, identified for his key position on Miami throughout its Final Four run again in 2023, with All-Atlantic 10 guard Xzayvier Brown within the again courtroom. Double-digit scorer Tae Davis from Notre Dame and former McDonald’s All-American Derrion Reid from Alabama have been introduced in to workforce up with the returning Wague and kind the workforce’s trio of beginning forwards.
The Sooners could have a dramatically completely different roster in comparison with final season’s event workforce, however the outcomes over their first 5 SEC video games have been the very same: 1-4. And though OU recorded some high-major wins throughout its non-conference matchups in opposition to Marquette, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest, double-digit losses to Arizona State and Gonzaga have the workforce needing to overperform their projected Twelfth-place end within the SEC to get into the postseason dialog.
That’s a dialog getting additional and additional away with every recreation. Oklahoma kicked off convention play with an 86-70 win over Ole Miss, however Moser’s squad has suffered double-digit losses to Mississippi State and Florida since then, plus a two-point heartbreaker to Alabama after holding an 11-point lead at halftime.
The Sooners’ newest loss, an 85-76 defeat at South Carolina, dropped them to 11-8 on the season and 1-5 in SEC play with 5 consecutive losses. With upcoming video games in opposition to Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the final two of these on the street, OU probably views the sport in CoMo as one of its greatest alternatives to choose up a win over the following few weeks. If the workforce is unable to take action, and continues on its present course, this season may very well be Moser’s final in Norman.
Oklahoma dropped three extra video games after the last-second loss in Columbia, extending its shedding streak to 9 video games. With OU’s NCAA Tournament hopes successfully over, most groups would have seen the dam totally burst and ended their season on a whimper. Instead, the Sooners rallied for a serious upset win over then-No. 15 Vanderbilt in Nashville and are 4-2 since snapping their shedding streak.
That contains back-to-back wins over Auburn and LSU, the latter of which bumped Oklahoma again above .500 on the season at 15-14. MU enters the Sooner State taking part in arguably its greatest basketball of the season, however OU is beginning to discover its groove and can look to avenge its slender loss earlier this 12 months. If the Tigers take the courtroom anticipating a straightforward battle, they’re more likely to expertise a letdown.
One of the strongest indicators for Mizzou over the previous month has been factors within the paint. The Tigers are 4-0 because the begin of February after they rating extra factors within the paint than their opponents. They’re 1-1 after they do not, and so they have been tied with Arkansas for factors within the paint in the course of the 94-86 loss in Fayetteville.
During Oklahoma’s current sizzling streak, the Sooners are 2-0 after they outscore their opponents within the paint. They’re 2-2 after they do not, a much more pedestrian report than the workforce’s 4-2 mark as a complete over their final six video games. MU additionally received the scoring battle down low throughout its first matchup with OU and received the sport, too, albeit by a really slender margin.
Mizzou has been at its greatest this season when it runs its offense with a concentrate on grinding down the opposition by way of domination on the inside and makes life troublesome for its opponents within the paint, forcing them to depend on perimeter taking pictures to generate offense. That mixture has made the Tigers troublesome to beat, and it was a mix the Sooners have been unable to crack the final time these groups confronted one another regardless of a heavy benefit for OU in three-point taking pictures. It’s additionally a mix that’s changing into more and more efficient for MU because of late season growth from its massive males.
Keep constructing on improved middle play
There’s no place Mizzou has seen extra enchancment from over the course of the season than middle. Shawn Phillips Jr. was a serious query mark all through non-conference play and arguably even into February because of a knack for foul bother and inconsistent offensive output. He’s tamped down on the fouls (at least considerably), permitting him to report greater than 20 minutes every of the previous three video games, and reached double-digits in scoring in two of these contests.
But the actual recreation changer for the Tigers has been the late season growth of Trent Burns. He obtained roughly 4 minutes of taking part in time over the primary 9 video games of SEC play, not often seeing the courtroom and infrequently struggling to make an affect when he did. But because the Vanderbilt recreation, he is averaging almost 17 minutes of taking part in time and set new profession highs in scoring and rebounding. Burns turning right into a dependable backup middle not solely took stress off of Phillips, he added a much-needed eighth member to MU’s rotation.
Burns and Phillips have been the important thing to Mizzou’s 88-64 shellacking of Mississippi State on Saturday, and a remotely comparable efficiency from the duo ought to enable the Tigers to grab management of the inside in Norman.
Slow down OU’s guard duo
But the Sooners have a duo MU needs to be nervous about, too. Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown have paired collectively within the backcourt to begin each recreation this season for Oklahoma and mixed to attain slightly below 32 factors per recreation.
The teammates are additionally OU’s prime two perimeter taking pictures threats and have hit simply over half of the whole workforce’s three-pointers, with Pack approaching 100 made triples this 12 months on a forty five.3 taking pictures share from past the arc. The pair additionally almost value the Tigers their final matchup in opposition to Oklahoma, scoring a mixed 44 factors in Columbia and connecting for seven of the Sooners’ 12 three-pointers.
Loads has modified for Mizzou since that final matchup, although. TO Barrett has elevated his play to a constant beginning stage (a growth that began with that late January recreation), and Anthony Robinson II is exhibiting indicators of breaking out of his prolonged droop. If the Tigers’ pairing of elite perimeter defenders can decelerate Pack and Brown, they will take away OU’s greatest avenue to get the win.
My prediction: Mizzou 87 – Oklahoma 83
Revenge is a robust motivator, and Oklahoma could have house courtroom benefit together with some momentum on its facet. But MU is taking part in its greatest basketball all season, and erasing any lingering doubt about your postseason standing is a robust motivator, too.
Mizzou has come a good distance since its final matchup with the Sooners. The mixture of Phillips and Burns ought to enable the Tigers to match up favorably with their opponent within the paint, and MU’s guards are additionally performing at a a lot greater stage than they have been in January.
Despite that progress, this needs to be a troublesome, carefully contested matchup. But after the dramatic turnaround of the final month, my doubts about Mizzou’s efficiency on the street are starting to fade, and so they’ve already proven they’ll win the shut ones. I’ll take the Tigers by a small margin as MU continues its late season surge and pulls off its personal Norman conquest.
