Anonymous Actor SAG Awards Ballots: Timothée Chalamet, Rose Byrne

With the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards behind usall eyes are actually squarely centered on this Sunday’s thirty second Actor Awardsintroduced by SAG-AFTRA. And if Gold Derby’s annual SAG-AFTRA survey is any indication, there’s an opportunity the actors may throw the Oscar race for a loop.

Every awards season, we ballot as many SAG-AFTRA members as attainable forward of the Actor Awards ceremony. And whereas we acknowledge that interviewing a number of hundred people in a company with over 150,000 members is a small pattern dimension and hardly foolproof, our polling outcomes have foreshadowed some notable surprises in years previous.

Five years in the past, we warned that Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom would seemingly topple Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman for Best Actress.

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 01: A general view of the atmosphere at the 2014 Writers Guild Awards LA Ceremony at JW Marriott at LA Live on February 1, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by)

The following yr, we practically guaranteed that Troy Kotsur in CODA would overpower Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog for Best Supporting Actor.

Three seasons in the past, we explained why Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once may pull a Supporting Actress SAG shocker.

And simply final yr, we supplied a daring prediction that Conclave may finest Wicked for Best Ensemble and that Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown would fully bury Adrian Brody in The Brutalist for Best Actor.

Those calls have been all primarily based on SAG surveys performed by Gold Derby employees. And now we’ve the outcomes of this yr’s canvassing, which we’re presenting under together with a snapshot of our prediction knowledge for every race. A caveat: a number of the greater than 150 SAG-AFTRA members whom we needed have been undecided in sure races, so the tallies may range from class to class.

It’s fairly attainable that a few of these outcomes will probably be method off. We will not know for sure till Sunday. But within the meantime, we hope that you’re going to discover these numbers fascinating as we did.

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE

One Battle After Another — 59
Sinners — 57
Hamnet — 19
Frankenstein — 12
Marty Supreme 8

Benicio Del Toro, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Sean Penn, 'One Battle After Another' — Benicio Del ToroChase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Sean PennJoe Maher/Getty Images

Gold Derby’s polling finds One Battle After Another and Sinners in a digital lifeless warmth. Those going with the previous cite the first-class solid of actors and the true ensemble nature of the movie. “Leo. Teyana. Chase. Sean. Benicio. Every one of them knocks it out of the park, without stealing a scene from anyone else,” one voter defined. As for the latter, many have been simply as enthusiastic concerning the performances of the solid as a complete. “There was simply an electrical energy that I felt in the entire actors, from Michael B. Jordan all the way in which right down to the extras,” a Sinners supporter mentioned. We could also be a photograph end, with a battle that is just too near name.

Meanwhile, here is how what the Gold Derby odds appear like:

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme 62
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners 53
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon 23
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another — 13
Jesse Plemons Bugonia— 2

Chalamet gained with this group final yr, and it seems that they don’t have any qualms about rewarding him once more, which would be the first time in history that’s happened. However, Jordan seems to be closing the hole — due to a twin position within the strongest Best Ensemble contender. “I really struggled with this one,” we heard from one voter who finally went with Jordan. “Timothée was at the top of his game, but Michael had the challenge of playing two parts and he nailed both of them.” We suspect that the end result right here relies on how properly Sinners does with SAG-AFTRA as a complete. If he overperforms, Jordan may ping-pong the prize away from Chalamet. As for Hawke, his numbers point out that he faces an uphill climb, however could possibly be this class’s dark-horse challenger.

Film Actor

Timothée Chalamet

Marty Supreme

Michael B. Jordan

Sinners

Leonardo DiCaprio

One Battle After Another

BEST ACTRESS

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You — 57
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet — 38
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another — 19
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue — 16
Emma Stone, Bugonia — 4

Rose Byrne in 'If I Had Legs I'd Kick You' — Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’A24/Everett Collection

You could discover that there have been fewer votes solid on this contest, and that is as a result of some members instructed Gold Derby that they’d but to see all 5 of those movies and weren’t able to make a ultimate resolution. Notably, Byrne holds a large lead over presumptive Oscar favourite Buckley. So, what is going on on right here? First, there genuinely appears to be lots of ardour for Byrne’s efficiency. “I thought she was just incredible. It was an actor’s dream role and she absolutely crushed it,” we heard from one voter. Another mentioned, “I always enjoyed Rose’s work in comedies and horror films, but what she did in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You was absolutely phenomenal.”

As for Buckley, she equally will get very excessive marks from voters who’ve screened Hamnet. But many described “the beautifully done” image as additionally being a “very tough watch.” A couple of confessed that they could not get even get by it. Looking at SAG Awards historical past, this shouldn’t be all that stunning. Its members have rather more mainstream tastes than these within the Academy, and are not as receptive to inordinately artsy interval movies. That could clarify why current Oscar champs like Olivia Colman in The Favourite, Emma Stone in Poor Things, and the beforehand talked about Adrien Brody in The Brutalist all stumbled at SAG. We’re not saying that Buckley gained’t win the Actor Award, however reasonably that SAG voting patterns (in addition to our polling) counsel that this could possibly be the one ceremony the place she and Byrne is likely to be reversing roles. (Buckley the bridesmaid and Byrne the bride.)

Film Actress

Rose Byrne

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson

Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti

One Battle After Another

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Miles Caton, Sinners — 37
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another — 33
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another — 28
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein — 26
Paul Mescal, Hamnet — 23

Miles Caton in 'Sinners' — Miles Caton in ‘Sinners’Warner Bros.

The polling outcomes present counsel an especially fractured Best Supporting Actor race on our fingers, and that makes this one nearly inconceivable to foretell. You may also marvel how on the planet newcomer (and shock contender) Caton could possibly be forward of the likes of a lot larger names like Del Toro, Elordi, Mescal, and Penn. However, it is truly not as wild as it could appear. The real consensus is that there’s no clear frontrunner on this class. So the SAG voting right here appears to correlate with the recognition of every actor’s movie. While Frankenstein and Hamnet each scored Best Ensemble nominations, neither is a critical menace for the win. That works towards each Elordi and Mescal.

We then have two huge One Battle actors in competition. But actors appear to be divided as to which one (each earlier SAG and Oscar winners) is extra worthy. Our ballot has Del Toro solely barely behind Penn. That cut up paves the way in which for a possible upset by Caton. We’ve observed that many SAG-AFTRA members deciding on Sinners for Best Ensemble are checking it off elsewhere on their ballots — together with Caton for Best Supporting Actor. “He was so authentic. I felt like wasn’t watching acting but a real person when he was on the screen,” we have been instructed by one voter. Another gushed, “Miles was truly incredible and Sinners was my favorite movie of the year. I was so happy about his nomination, now I want him to win.” Again, this contest is a complete crapshoot and something may occur. Caton might not be miles forward, however he actually may win the race.

Film Supporting Actor

Sean Penn

One Battle After Another

Benicio Del Toro

One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi

Frankenstein

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Madigan, Weapons — 81
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another — 36
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners — 29
Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme — 2
Ariana Grande, Wicked — 1

Amy Madigan in <i>Weapons<figcaption class=

Gold Derby’s survey point out that we’ve at the least one digital lock within the movie classes on the Actor Awards. We’ve counted extra votes for Madigan than all the opposite actresses mixed. “Amazing Amy” is an outline that a number of SAG-AFTRA members used whereas commenting on Madigan’s terrifying flip in Weapons. “She absolutely blew me away,” one voter exclaimed. “I’m still having nightmares about Aunt Gladys — that’s how much her performance stayed with me,” one other admirer confided. Mosaku and Taylor do appear to generate some votes from followers of their respective movies, however they seem to have little hope of catching up with Madigan. The position of Aunt Gladys would be the final weapon right here.