Seven things Solak thinks entering NFL Week 8

Are you excited for NFL Week 8? This is our first loaded slate of the season. Ravens at Bills. Vikings at Lions. Browns at Steelers. Chiefs at Broncos. Bears at Seahawks. Even the not-so-great video games (Falcons at Buccaneers and Colts at Jaguars) imply rather a lot for divisional standings.

Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I’ll flip the web page from the earlier week to the upcoming one with seven things I feel. These aren’t full-scale predictions. They aren’t concrete takeaways from the previous week of NFL motion, both; these are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the unsure subjects. They are things that would possibly be true, however it’ll in all probability take the subsequent few video games to search out out. And on the backside, you will discover just a few further half-thoughts … simply these little inklings I’m unable to shake.

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This week, I’ll begin with a prediction/plea for the Chiefs to make a commerce for a receiver. Then I’ll put all my hope and pleasure on the again of a fourth-round rookie. And lastly, I’ll admit I am unable to do my job.

Jump to:
Chiefs will make a WR trade
Stefanski will be Coach of the Year
Goff is a sleeper MVP candidate
Coleman could save Broncos’ offense
Ravens’ D disqualifies them from contention
QB3 Leonard starts for Colts by Week 10
Young is a complicated study
Some extra inklings

I feel … the Chiefs’ loss to Seattle will bully them into making the commerce they should make

Have you ever gotten embarrassed on nationwide tv? Me neither.

The 2026 Chiefs certain have. Kansas City scored three points against the Seahawks on Sunday night time, marking solely the second time in Patrick Mahomes‘ profession that his crew has been held to a few or fewer factors. The 11 first downs the Chiefs gathered have been their fewest in 153 Mahomes begins, and this was solely his fourth begin and not using a single explosive go. The offense averaged 4.3 yards per play (148th out of Mahomes’ 153 begins), produced minus-0.13 EPA per play (148th) and had a hit fee of 34% (152nd).

It’s simple to elucidate this one. The Seahawks, off a two-game dropping streak, have been internet hosting an unbeaten Chiefs crew at dwelling — that protection was amped-up for 4 quarters. The Chiefs have been down each beginning tackles (Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore) together with two of three beginning receivers (Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice), and the passing offense performed prefer it. Even the Chiefs’ ace within the gap — their inside offensive line’s dominance within the operating sport — was overwhelmed on this sport, as they bumped into the league-best defensive deal with duo of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II. I did not assume it could look as unhealthy because it did, however it’s not too stunning it fell to such dramatic items.

Let’s additionally take into account the bigger context. Simmons did not simply miss this sport — he has been out all season, and (*8*) Wednesday after frustrations boiled over. He has missed the whole season due to again points, has lately been positioned on injured reserve and missed time final season for private causes and a wrist damage. Rice has now missed 27 of the 43 video games he might have performed because the begin of the 2024 season for damage or suspension. It’s not simply that the Chiefs’ star receiver and early-drafted left deal with missed this previous week — it is that they’ve confirmed to be constantly unavailable. Meanwhile, 2024 Chiefs first-round receiver Xavier Worthy dropped one other go in Week 7 as he continues to be unusable on most downfield routes.

This was a one-off in that the Chiefs have been dramatically outmanned and will get a few of these gamers again from the medical tent quickly. But this was not a one-off within the sense that Rice, Simmons and Worthy are simply unreliable gamers.

The Chiefs ought to clearly take into account drastic measures. Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson has performed nicely sufficient in Simmons’ absence that there isn’t any have to make a giant commerce for a left deal with. But the necessity for a three-down receiver who can endure a big goal quantity and succeed in any respect three ranges of the sector is evident. Worthy is not even the most effective pace receiver on the crew when Thornton is wholesome, so I feel Worthy must be dangled in commerce packages as nicely — he has extra worth in concept proper now than he does in observe.

Whether the Chiefs really will take into account a giant deadline commerce is much less clear. General supervisor Brett Veach has usually been energetic across the deadline, executing not less than one in-season commerce in 5 consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2024 earlier than going quiet in 2025. The greatest such deal was the longer term third-round decide traded for Kadarius Toney in 2022. The Chiefs had simply traded Tyreek Hill within the 2022 offseason and have been in search of pace on offense. Toney did not hit as a receiver, however he offered a giant punt return within the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory that season.

This Chiefs crew (5-1) is as nicely fitted to a postseason run as that 2022 Chiefs crew (5-2 on the time of the commerce). Through seven weeks of the 2026 season, the Chiefs are fifth in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play. They are ninth in offensive factors per drive and third in defensive factors per drive. With an precise operating sport nicely in hand and a reinvigorated protection, that is as balanced of a Chiefs crew as I can bear in mind. They simply want some extra juice on offense.

play

Do the Chiefs have to commerce for a WR to repair their offense?

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported as such. From “The Pat McAfee Show” on Monday: “They have been calling around, and I don’t think it would be a surprise to see them continue to attempt to add a wide receiver before the trade deadline.”

I’ve 5 deadline offers for a receiver in thoughts. These aren’t sourced and have been first written down on the again of a serviette. It’s very doubtless the opposite groups in these hypotheticals wouldn’t even hearken to offers for his or her wideouts. Do not yell at me on the web about these commerce proposals.

1. Send Worthy and a 2027 third-round decide to the Jaguars for Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville benched Thomas within the second half of its Week 6 sport. The solely worth the Jaguars have been getting from him was theoretical field-stretching — Worthy can do a lot the identical, and Mahomes and the Chiefs can provide Thomas an opportunity to rediscover his 2024 type in a brand new zip code.

2. Send a 2027 third-round decide and 2028 conditional fifth-round decide to the Cowboys for George Pickens.

The Cowboys have 2025 commerce acquisition Pickens and 2026 commerce acquisition Joey Porter Jr. enjoying on contract years, and it is laborious to think about they prolong each ex-Steelers at market charges. If Pickens would recoup a third-round compensatory decide in free company, the Chiefs can sweeten the pot with a future decide conditional on manufacturing ranges and provides the Cowboys their third-round comp decide with out having to control the components this offseason. How the Cowboys play in Weeks 8 and 9 (vs. Cardinals, at Colts) may have a big effect right here.

3. Send a 2027 fourth-round decide to the Eagles for Dontayvion Wicks.

If I have been the Chiefs, I’d be placing a primary after which some on the desk for DeVonta Smith. It completely wouldn’t work — Eagles GM Howie Roseman is not going to commerce each A.J. Brown and Smith in the identical season — however you must attempt because the Eagles stare down the barrel of a rebuild in 2027. In lieu of Smith, Wicks has all of the traits of a three-level receiver — ball monitoring, potential to catch away from his body, burst, measurement — with none of the route or arms consistency. Grab him for a Day 3 decide and hope to run sizzling!

4. Send Worthy and a 2027 seventh-round decide to the Saints for Devaughn Vele and a 2027 sixth-round decide.

Before you snort, that is tied-for-Twenty second-in-total-receptions Devaughn Vele to you! Vele is a wholly unexciting goal, however he’s additionally mainly what the Chiefs want. He’s a big-bodied receiver who can take a ton of contact and endure 10-plus-target video games. He additionally makes good catches away from his body and offers purple zone worth — one thing the Chiefs’ worryingly undersized receiver room has at all times didn’t deliver. With Jordyn Tyson getting back from a hamstring injury at some point and the Saints’ season on life assist, New Orleans can take the gamble on rehabilitating Worthy.

5. Send Worthy, a 2028 first-round decide and a 2027 third-round decide to Jets for Garrett Wilson.

Of all of the untouchable star receivers on dropping soccer groups (Nico Collins on the 2-5 Texans, Smith on the 2-5 Eagles, and many others.), Wilson is the one I can perhaps see shifting throughout the subsequent two weeks. Jets GM Darren Mougey appears so safe in his status as a wheeler-and-dealer that the fan base would forgive him for shifting Wilson ought to the Jets fireplace Aaron Glenn and go scorched earth earlier than the deadline. The one challenge? The Jets are already loaded within the first spherical of the 2027 draft with two further Day 1 picks. Does Mougey actually need extra capital? It’s lower than a 1% likelihood … however larger than a 0% likelihood.

I feel … Kevin Stefanski ought to win Coach of the Year

Three coaches in NFL historical past have received the AP Coach of the Year award not less than thrice: Don Shula (3.5, as he shared a win in 1967), Bill Belichick (three) and Chuck Knox (three). I feel Stefanski ought to turn out to be the fourth this season.

That’s proper. For those that forgot, Stefanski received Coach of the Year twice in his six-year tenure with the Browns. In 2020, his first season on the helm, Stefanski infused Baker Mayfield with hitherto unseen playmaking and went 11-5 — heck, he even received a playoff sport in Cleveland. Three years later, Stefanski’s 2023 Browns went 11-6 regardless of splitting the common season throughout 5 beginning QBs (Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, Jeff Driskel and Joe Flacco). If a bissextile year comes as soon as each 4 years, then a Stefanski COTY win is an every-three-years occasion, as a result of it is 2026 and the person is doing it once more.

The Falcons are 3-4 by means of seven video games with a big win over the previously undefeated 49ers this previous Sunday. And when beginning quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is energetic, they’re 3-2. More spectacular than the document is the short evolution Penix has undergone below Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. For the earlier two seasons below Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Penix hardly ever left the pocket and aggressively pushed the ball downfield. He performed quarterback very like a trebuchet would possibly: He simply sat there and launched the sucker.

Stefanski’s offense has precipitated a distinct fashion of play from Penix, who’s eliminating the ball remarkably sooner than he did in his first two seasons as a professional and working nearer to the road of scrimmage. Where Penix as soon as by no means moved, he is now main the league in designed rollout fee, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Coaches do not win awards as a result of they efficiently shepherd younger quarterbacks to stylistic modifications, however it’s value stating clearly that this isn’t simple to do. Most younger QBs do not change their stripes. They would possibly enhance or decline, however they accomplish that throughout the identical play fashion. Bo Nix is enjoying the identical fashion of ball in 2026 (whereas struggling) as he did in 2025 (whereas excelling). The identical was true for Drake Maye from 2024 into 2025. Even Caleb Williams, who has undergone a critical metamorphosis below Ben Johnson, is generally grafting expertise onto the identical present base of a high-creativity play fashion.

That the Falcons have readily gotten Penix to consider soccer in a distinct style altogether is spectacular. Doubly spectacular is how Stefanski has this passing sport working within the context of his speeding assault. The Falcons, with Stefanski’s longtime partner-in-crime Bill Callahan teaching the offensive line, have one of many league’s finest speeding assaults (sixth in speeding yards per sport, 139.9), and so they lean on it like no different. Since Penix returned to the beginning lineup, no crew has a better referred to as run fee than Atlanta (46.5%).

Surely the Falcons run a ton of play-action then, proper? And they need to hunt deep pictures off that established run? Wrong. Penix has a 26.8% play-action fee on the season, 14th amongst league passers (league common is 24.6%). And on play-action dropbacks, he has a depth of goal of seven.1 — beneath the league common of seven.7.

Stefanski and Rees have been cautious about giving Penix an excessive amount of runway on play-action deep pictures due to the QB’s warts. He’s a extremely inconsistent participant for downfield accuracy and significantly struggles when pressured. While play-action can decelerate an efficient go rush, it may additionally rapidly create safety busts. The quarterbacks who profit essentially the most from play-action are hyper-precise anticipation throwers who can rapidly expose a linebacker one step out of alignment. Penix has that caliber of launch pace and velocity however vastly lacks the required accuracy — particularly on downfield throws.

Instead, the Falcons use the boot sport to get Penix free-access completions for yards after the catch as an alternative of deep alternatives for explosives — 53% of his yards have come after the catch this season, up from 47% in 2025 and 37% in 2024. Save for Bijan Robinson, the Falcons’ go catchers — Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr., Jahan Dotson, Charlie Woerner, and many others. — aren’t actually recognized for his or her after-the-catch potential. This is all scheme, child. When we take away operating again targets, the disparity grows much more, as 47% of Penix’s yards this season are from YAC, relative to 32% and 30% within the two earlier seasons.

Stefanski received this award in 2020 for what he obtained from Mayfield and in 2023 for a way he scrabbled collectively a quarterback room. Ideally, we might be taught to offer this award for causes past quarterbacking. But right here, Stefanski nonetheless wins. His operating sport is getting the most effective out of Robinson that we have ever seen. Stefanski retained incumbent defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and has reaped the rewards with an aggressive, high-pressure unit regardless of subpar expertise. Stefanski just isn’t an ideal fourth-down decision-maker or clock supervisor, however he is one of many league’s higher coaches in each fields.

Funny sufficient, if not Stefanski for the award, I’d prefer to see his successor in Cleveland win it. Todd Monken inherited Stefanski’s crew and has gotten large manufacturing out of younger gamers. The Browns are 5-2 regardless of poor quarterback play. The co-excellence of Monken and Stefanski serves as a pleasant reminder that splits are typically vital. Cleveland wanted a brand new voice, and Stefanski wanted a brand new room to talk in. Both events are higher off for his or her break up.

The Falcons are well positioned in a weak NFC South to take a division title. Even with the 49ers’ accidents thought of, Atlanta has loads of proof it may play with anybody on this league. Ending the season 10-7 with a house playoff sport feels just like the successful ticket. Whether or not that is sufficient for Stefanski to win his third Coach of the Year recognition, he deserves his flowers on this area. I like the job he is doing in Atlanta.

I feel … Jared Goff is the sleeper MVP no one’s speaking about

The Lions are 4-2 after a 20-17 win over the Packers. It lastly appeared like a manageable sport for the Lions, somewhat than a determined second-half dash to maintain tempo with an opposing offense that the Detroit protection had no prayer of stopping. Detroit now hosts one other division rival, the undefeated Vikings, with the potential at hand them their first loss and pull nearer to pole place within the highly competitive NFC North. If the Lions win that sport, they’re going to be 5-2 and the Vikings could be 6-1. And Goff doubtless would have had a great day towards the vaunted Brian Flores protection.

Through six weeks, Goff has 150 completions on 223 makes an attempt (67.3% completion fee). His passer ranking of 112.5 is second solely to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. His whole dropback EPA of 58.5 is simply barely behind Josh Allen (58.6) for the league lead. He has thrown 14 landing passes and no interceptions, which ties 2019 Russell Wilson for essentially the most touchdowns in a six-game, interception-free begin to a season in NFL historical past.

That Goff hasn’t thrown an interception regardless of how typically the Lions have been caught in shootout sport scripts is eye-popping. He has additionally been one of many least-pressured quarterbacks (30.8%, fifth lowest amongst high-volume passers). At first, that feels like a disqualifying attribute for an MVP, however 49ers QB Brock Purdy has the bottom stress fee and Allen is sixth. High-performing quarterbacks profit from good go safety and likewise make the type of performs that mitigate pressures altogether.

This is the place Goff has actually impressed — he is enjoying with a wonderful rhythm. Here’s a great instance on a pleasant play design. The Lions bluff the display to operating again Jahmyr Gibbs, and Goff needs tight finish Brock Wright (89) on the vertical. But a spiking defensive finish collapses Goff’s throwing platform. No biggie … Goff resets with fast toes and dumps the ball to Gibbs as an alternative of making an attempt to pressure a late throw to Wright alongside the sideline.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

I like the rhythm and luxury with which Goff is enjoying this season — this, greater than something, appears reminiscent of the Ben Johnson period and what was absent within the temporary John Morton intermission final season. Drew Petzing and the enhancements alongside the whole Lions offensive line have Goff enjoying with urgency however management — consolation with out laziness. Goff won’t ever be an extended-play maven, and that lack of speeding manufacturing will at all times slender his path to an MVP award. But on pure go makes an attempt — no scrambles, no sacks, no nothing — Goff has collected 82.2 EPA by means of six video games. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is second at 59.6.

I took a fast peek on the MVP odds and located Goff eighth behind Allen (is smart), Purdy (is smart), Joe Burrow (is smart), Lawrence (I agree), Mahomes (ehhh), Maye (in all probability not) and Williams (missed too many video games). Goff has barely higher odds than Packers quarterback Jordan Love regardless of the head-to-head win. The subsequent closest participant? Gibbs.

There’s virtually no shot that Gibbs wins the MVP over Goff if Detroit’s season runs out with an NFC North title. The Lions are a reasonably balanced offense (fifteenth in general go fee, Eleventh in go fee over expectation). For a operating again to win the MVP over a quarterback, the manufacturing and expertise disparity must be so apparent — assume Robinson vs. Penix — that it could be a farce to pick out another person. Until confirmed in any other case, MVP is a quarterback award within the fashionable period.

Goff is way from a favourite at this stage, and rightfully so. Burrow is the one throwing the ball on each down, and the Bengals have the best schedule left. The AFC North, not less than by document, is as aggressive because the NFC North. If you are making me guess at present who will really win the award on the finish of the season, I feel I’d take Burrow.

But if the query is which participant might emerge from the void of hype-less-ness and turn out to be a favourite by December, Goff looks like the plain alternative.

I feel … Jonah Coleman is coming to save lots of the Broncos’ offense

OK, that could be slightly a lot. But hear me out.

The Broncos’ rookie operating again has the juice. On 19 carries this season, he is averaging 4.9 yards — J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey are at 3.4 and three.6, respectively. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Coleman has generated 17 extra speeding yards than anticipated (Dobbins is at minus-77; Harvey is at minus-34) and has 4 extra first downs than anticipated — for a complete of seven on simply 19 carries!

Nine of these carries got here in his Week 7 return from damage towards the Cardinals (2-5); he had missed the past four weeks because of an ankle sprain. He had as many carries as Dobbins and Harvey mixed and took 50% of the snaps general (Dobbins at 21%; Harvey at 25%). Coleman added two catches on simply six routes for a 11-touch, 69-yard day. Coach Sean Payton stated, “Got to get him more touches.”

I agree.

We’ve spent a lot time worrying about quarterback Bo Nix and the passing game in Denver — which, by the best way, was removed from fastened but in addition slightly improved Sunday — that we have barely spoken in regards to the operating sport. Through the primary six weeks of the season, the Broncos have been averaging 3.5 yards per keep it up operating again runs (fifth worst), and it did not seem to be the offensive line’s fault. In truth, Broncos operating backs have been averaging 1.2 yards earlier than contact per carry — above the league common.

The Denver backs had 99 fewer speeding yards than anticipated per NFL Next Gen Stats’ modeling (third worst) as a result of Harvey and Dobbins are incomplete gamers. Harvey lacks really feel and imaginative and prescient behind an offensive line and is finest utilized in area as a go catcher. Dobbins, who has the best psychological traits for a operating again, lacks the athletic pop to truly make performs in tight areas.

The lack of any operating sport damage the general well being of the Broncos’ offense, as there was nowhere to cover the passing sport’s struggles. Denver has a adequate protection to win with a methodical philosophy on offense, however when Nix produces a haphazard outing, the operating sport has been incapable of steadying the offensive heartbeat.

It’s by no means actually excellent news when a fourth-round rookie coming back from early-season damage is taken into account the bringer of stability to an offense — Denver by no means ought to have let it get this far. But even earlier than the damage, when Harvey and Dobbins have been damage in Week 2 towards the Jaguars, Coleman salted the sport away within the four-minute offense over veteran again Tyler Badie. It speaks to a stage of belief that Payton has in him, and deservedly so. Coleman is fast in thoughts and in physique — he explodes into the outlet and finishes by means of contact. He’s no Bijan Robinson, however he is the most effective between-the-tackles ball service I’ve seen put on a Broncos uniform this season.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

Denver is internet hosting a rematch with the Chiefs on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). Remember, these two groups performed Week 1 on “Monday Night Football” once we did not but know what we have been getting from Kenneth Walker III and the new-look Chiefs offense. Now, Denver is 5-2 — solely a half-game again from the 5-1 Chiefs — and desires to guard Nix from the high-pressure sport plan that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deployed the final time round. The finest option to decelerate the go rush? Run the ball.

A dependable operating sport would go a great distance because the Broncos proceed determining how you can insulate Nix and restore his confidence as a thrower — a dependable and infrequently explosive operating sport would go twice as lengthy. If Denver has an improved offensive efficiency towards the Chiefs this week, many will cite Payton on the headset because the distinction. But I will not be shocked if it is Coleman toting the rock that swings things the opposite manner.

I feel … the Ravens’ go protection disqualifies them as a contender

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had an ideal passer ranking (158.3) within the second half towards the Ravens on Sunday. He is the primary quarterback since Josh Allen within the 2024 wild-card spherical to put up an ideal passer ranking within the second half (minimal 15 dropbacks). Burrow’s success fee (88.9%, 16-of-18 on dropbacks) was the most effective since 2016 Dak Prescott in Week 11 towards … the Ravens.

It’s spooky how typically the Ravens discover themselves on the unsuitable facet of those stats. Baltimore’s first three losses of the season have all are available in video games during which it as soon as led by 10-plus factors, making it the sixth crew in NFL historical past to do this. The most up-to-date is the 2022 Ravens.

In that the Ravens have surrendered three multiscore leads, I’m not venturing far into hyperbole once I say there’s one thing unsuitable with their go protection. In doubtless dropback conditions — that’s, when main within the second half — a protection ought to have the ability to get to extra unique calls and rush the passer extra ambitiously. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Ravens are twenty ninth in completion proportion surrendered (64.8%) and twenty sixth in yards per try allowed (7.8) on performs with a go likelihood of not less than 75% (accounting for down-and-distance, rating differential, and many others.).

The challenge is explicitly in protection, not go rush. Baltimore is getting sufficient stress in apparent passing conditions (42%, above league common) however is solely unable to shut on routes. On these apparent passing downs, 40% are thrown to “open” receivers with not less than 3 yards of separation, the third-highest fee within the NFL, in line with NFL Next Gen Stats charting.

Why cannot the Ravens play stickier protection? Well, they’re a zone-heavy crew below Jesse Minter, and so they stay so in clear passing downs (61% zone protection, twelfth amongst defenses). Baltimore does not actually have the personnel to play man protection throughout the board. No. 2 cornerback Marlon Humphrey is 30 years outdated and does not have the identical pace he as soon as did. Behind him, the Ravens are biking by means of choices over the slot. Keyon Martin was the main No. 3 nook with 14 snaps, taking the mantle from rookie Chandler Rivers, who was outsnapping him just a few weeks in the past.

Here’s a third-and-3 in man protection within the third quarter towards Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore leaves high nook Nate Wiggins locked with Bengals receiver Tee Higgins to the highest of the display, and Wiggins aggressively performs the fade route, holding upfield and out of doors positioning on Higgins. He’s performing as if he has assist inside — however linebacker Roquan Smith instantly snaps his head to Bengals No. 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase on the alternative facet of the formation, and deep security Kyle Hamilton is simply too far out of place to influence the catch level. First right down to Higgins.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

Here’s one other man protection snap — this one within the purple zone. Here, the Ravens explicitly double Chase with Humphrey and security Malaki Starks. They aggressively gave Humphrey assist on this sport, a testomony to their uncertainty round his play in matchups like this one. Hamilton finally ends up chargeable for Higgins on the bender, and like Wiggins on the earlier play, he will get aggressive outdoors positioning. Hamilton thinks he has assist from somebody — perhaps Smith down the hashes, Starks as a center-fielding security — however does not. It’s one other simple Higgins completion and leaves a pissed off trio of defenders speaking things out ultimately zone when the play is finished.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

A wholesome concern of Chase created critical spacing points for Baltimore throughout the board. Watch the load of Chase on the in-breaker pull linebacker Trenton Simpson deep downfield, which makes the short checkdown to Erick All Jr. that rather more worthwhile. And then one drive later, watch Chase on the identical curl route pull defenders downhill and open up a lot area for Higgins to interrupt into the sideline behind him.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

It’s robust to overly fault security K’Von Wallace, who’s in for the injured Jaylinn Hawkins and shouldn’t be almost thus far downfield right here (although Hawkins himself has been an issue in area for a lot of the season). Hawkins and Starks have each been late to search out routes in zone protection and brought poor angles to get there. Wiggins has struggled with high receivers equivalent to Higgins and the Falcons’ Drake London. Hamilton missed just a few tackles on this sport and drew a pricey defensive holding penalty — his worth is rarely going to be in his downfield protection. And whereas Smith is a brilliant protection linebacker, he lacks size and the scale to influence the catch level, and his quickness just isn’t what it as soon as was.

The collective pool of protection expertise in Baltimore simply does not transfer the needle. Were Wiggins a set-it-and-forget-it CB1 value locking in man protection on one facet of the formation, things could be simpler. He’s not. Were Humphrey a veteran CB2 who might be trusted towards elite receiver duos, things could be simpler. He’s not. So, when opposing offenses start amassing dropbacks towards Baltimore, they get many bites at a very juicy apple. Eventually, they hit on a few large performs, and the scoreboard evens.

I’m unsure the place salvation comes for Baltimore. About 49% of my mind says Minter is a superb defensive coach and the Ravens will turn out to be a lot, a lot tighter of their zones because the season goes on. Minter’s defenses in Los Angeles have been notoriously nicely related and keyed in on tendency, however the Ravens’ group has been the alternative by means of seven weeks. Those tides can change.

But 51% of my mind says their expertise simply is not adequate to make a playoff run by means of some trio of Allen, Burrow, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. More time collectively below Minter will assist clear up some spacing points — they’re going to be a lot better the subsequent time they play the Bengals, I’m certain — however too many gamers are making too many errors for me to imagine within the therapeutic magic of friendship and communication. If the Ravens need to man up anyone proper now … I’m in all probability choosing the opposite guys to win the down.

The commerce deadline is in two weeks, and Minter’s outdated Chargers (who’re 0-6) would possibly find yourself dealing some gamers. Keep a watch on security Elijah Molden and cornerback Donte Jackson.

I feel … Riley Leonard might be beginning by Week 10

There is not any distant rumble on the horizon that extra clearly anticipates a quarterback benching than a head coach insisting that no benching is imminent. Asked by reporters for the second consecutive week whether or not Daniel Jones remains to be the beginning quarterback in Indianapolis, coach Shane Steichen reiterated that, sure, Jones remains to be the starter.

Here’s the factor: Jones wasn’t significantly unhealthy on Sunday against the 6-0 Vikings — not less than, not on the size of his current play and the expectations for a quarterback going up towards Brian Flores’ league-leading protection. To be clear, he completely was unhealthy — 13-of-22, 108 yards, an interception, 4 sacks — however simply not a lot worse than might be anticipated.

That, after all, is the issue.

Steichen referred to as a sterilized sport Sunday, treating his quarterback much less like a trusted playmaker and extra like a radioactive isotope. Indianapolis ran the ball closely — the Colts had a go fee over expectation of minus-17.5%, the second-lowest mark of the previous two years. Despite all of the run-action, the Colts offense went play-action on solely 14.8% of their go makes an attempt, the bottom of any Jones begin. This sport was equal in sport plan to the 2025 Philip Rivers begin towards the Seahawks (minus-23.5% go fee over expectation; 7.1% play-action fee) — that is the present esteem to which Steichen holds Jones. He’s enjoying him like 43-year-old Rivers.

Instead, it was all fast sport, with one- and three-stop drops within the hope that Jones would get the ball out rapidly and keep away from the Vikings’ ferocious stress bundle altogether. Of course, Jones had just a few snaps of well timed supply and pristine placement. He additionally tried to throw two first-half picks and really did the deed within the fourth quarter. Point-and-shoot quarterbacking hardly ever works, even for veteran supercomputers equivalent to Rivers. For Jones, a cumbersome physique with good mobility (he nonetheless appears to be like spry sufficient off the Achilles damage) whose profession has been extra about aggressive throws within the face of stress … it was not a successful components.

Of course, it is not simply Jones. The passing assault is absent tight finish Tyler Warren and receiver Alec Pierce. No quarterback feels good up towards an elite protection in 2026 when Laquon Treadwell and Keenan Allen are operating a majority of the routes. Earlier, I excused the Chiefs for their very own horrible offensive efficiency vs. the Seahawks and advocated for extensive receiver trades earlier than any bigger Patrick Mahomes judgments might be made. I prolong that very same grace to Jones and the Colts, who’re a greater passing assault than their 4.9 yards per try and minus-0.15 EPA per dropback on Sunday indicate.

With the required caveats made … the Colts are going to need to bench Jones. As the 2-5 crew stares down a street sport in Jacksonville in Week 8, it is trying on the final domino earlier than a full-scale teardown begins in Indianapolis. DeForest Buckner, Cam Bynum, Grover Stewart, Quenton Nelson, Josh Downs, Jonathan Taylor … there are many high quality Colts gamers value buying and selling on the deadline.

As Indianapolis punts on 2026 and appears to 2027, determining what it has — if something — in its two younger backup quarterbacks is crucial. The Colts would not have their first-round decide within the 2027 draft — that belongs to the Jets by way of the Sauce Gardner trade — and can’t fairly take into account drafting a possible starter till 2028. Finding a bridge quarterback is excessive on the laundry record for 2026 goals ought to their season functionally finish in Jacksonville subsequent week — a bridge quarterback cheaper than Jones’ $46.8 million cap hit in 2027.

A number of weeks in the past, I predicted we would see Anthony Richardson Sr. in some unspecified time in the future — he has been dressing because the Colts’ No. 2 quarterback with second-year professional Leonard obtainable because the emergency No. 3. Since that prediction, Richardson faces a misdemeanor charge for marijuana possession following a traffic stop earlier this month. While he faces no imminent punishment from the league — the authorized course of has but to play out — that is the type of error that shakes up a QB2 depth chart.

Who really is aware of what Richardson is able to after a one-in-a-million eye damage ended his 2025 season throughout pregame warmups in October? While Richardson has extra NFL expertise than Leonard by years, he has began solely 15 video games (Leonard has one), and so they’re the identical age (24). Leonard has the benefit of additional contract years because the Colts search for a bridge starter in 2027; he has two further seasons of crew management after this one, and Richardson is a 2027 free agent.

Either possibility is a defensible alternative, and I demand half-credit for this prediction if the Colts pull Jones for Richardson after their Week 9 sport towards the Cowboys. I’d lean Leonard as a result of a great Richardson season creates a bizarre contract determination this offseason. No matter what, if the Colts begin dealing gamers within the subsequent couple of weeks, I count on a quarterback change to swiftly observe.

I feel … about Bryce Young, however I do not know something

We’re 3½ years into Young’s profession, and I nonetheless do not know precisely how good this man is. There is not any particular person participant within the league, not to mention quarterback, who confounds me the best way Bryce Young confounds me. Who are you?!

Let’s take the widest view then funnel in. Since 2024 (I’m throwing out 2023 as a result of it was a disastrous season below Frank Reich), Young is one in every of 31 quarterbacks with not less than 600 dropbacks. He is twenty fifth in EPA per dropback and twenty eighth in dropback success fee (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward and Joe Flacco are worse). He is twenty eighth in completion proportion and thirtieth in off-target proportion (solely Caleb Williams is worse, and he will catch as much as Young fairly rapidly right here).

I feel it is easy for folks to neglect simply how unhealthy Young has been on a big pattern — bear in mind, we eradicated his horrible 2023 rookie season. And not like loads of the younger quarterbacks who’ve shaky numbers over the previous few seasons — Ward, Tyler Shough, Jayden Daniels, and many others. — Young’s unhealthy statistical output just isn’t the results of horrible detrimental performs drawing his efficiency down. He is round league common for interception fee and sack fee. The common Young go simply is not all that worthwhile. It just isn’t accomplished typically sufficient, and when it’s accomplished, it does not generate sufficient yardage. It’s so simple as that.

Now let’s slender things. We do not actually care how Caleb Williams produced in 2024, and for good purpose — he is clearly a distinct man than he was then. Drake Maye is completely different. Justin Herbert is completely different. The NFL stands for Not For Long; it is involved solely with what you have performed these days. So, let’s push apart previous seasons and try Young’s 2026 progress report.

Panthers coach Dave Canales gave offensive coordinator Brad Idzik playcalling responsibilities this season, and there was a lift within the Panthers’ offense accordingly. The second season of reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan and the third yr of Jalen Coker reverse him helps, too. Through seven weeks of the season, Young remains to be thirtieth in completion proportion and thirty third in off-target fee amongst 34 quarterbacks … however he is balancing the scales with greater throws. Young is seventh in air yards per try, a brand new single-season finest for him. He’s Eleventh in explosive go fee and twelfth in first down/landing per dropback fee.

The chief change within the Panthers’ offense below Idzik? Carolina just isn’t doing an excessive amount of schematically completely different, however it has modified the proportions during which it has requested Young to do what he does. When Canales first got here to Carolina, the Panthers wished Young to be a spread-‘n’-shred level guard. In 2024, 22.4% of his dropbacks have been in empty formations, then 18.3% in 2025. This season, it is right down to 12.8%. As empty has dropped, below heart has risen (13.1% to 14.6% to 19.2%) and play-action has adopted (22.2% to 25.2% to 27.6%).

The abandonment of empty is especially attention-grabbing once we take a look at what has changed it. The Panthers employed Darrell Bevell this offseason as an affiliate head coach. For the previous 4 years, he served as Mike McDaniel’s quarterbacks coach and passing sport coordinator in Miami. An enormous a part of the Panthers’ playbook has abruptly turn out to be extraordinarily McDaniel-inspired. The Panthers, very like the Dolphins did with Tua Tagovailoa, are weaponizing Young’s lightning-quick launch and powerful pre-snap processing to hit easy-access RPOs.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026

The incontrovertible fact that Young is experiencing a manufacturing bump whereas having fun with the identical dusting of McDaniel magic mud that after inflated Tagovailoa’s output is … suspicious. But Young has one thing that Tagovailoa by no means had: the flexibility to make performs below stress.

Young’s profession numbers do not stack up nicely on all dropbacks, however on pressured dropbacks (once more since 2024) he has at all times had a knack for playmaking with out inviting nice catastrophe. Here’s that very same desk from above, however solely on pressured dropbacks. Over the previous three seasons, Young is now Eleventh in dropback success fee, Eleventh in explosive go fee and fifteenth in EPA per dropback. Notice once more that his sack fee and interception fee stay low relative to his friends.

These are my favourite traits of Young’s — his twitch, his poise and his creativity. It’s particularly notable within the purple zone, the place Young flits out and in of tight areas to control defenders and break coverages. He does not make the identical really elite performs out of construction that Josh Allen, Williams and Patrick Mahomes do — he lacks the arm power and the bodily bulk — however he’s within the tier beneath.

Young has performed nicely below stress over a multi-season pattern, so he ought to — with an enchancment to the bottom offense round him — have the ability to maintain a strong passing assault and respectable NFL offense. We’ve seen it in flashes this season, and we stated that final yr, too. But it is by no means constant and by no means strung collectively for greater than three consecutive video games. Sunday’s 43-13 disaster against the Buccaneers was removed from Young’s fault — the protection was embarrassed and his offensive line had its worst sport of the season towards the Bucs’ deep steady of highly effective rushers — however Young definitely did not assist. He was erratic and late, as he typically is when he will get jittery within the pocket after a number of hits.

The Panthers are 3-3 and, in concept, within the driver’s seat within the NFC South. They have an infinite sport on the Packers on Thursday night time. Remember, they received at Lambeau Field final season as 13-point underdogs. If Carolina can run the ball nicely and play deep zone coverages that pressure Jordan Love to test down the soccer — and Green Bay’s horrible speeding assault continues — it has a transparent avenue to victory.

The Panthers are able to beating the Packers and most different contenders on any given Sunday. But they’re additionally able to dropping in dramatic style to the then-one-win Buccaneers. And that is as a result of their quarterback stays a thriller bag even now, 50 begins into his NFL profession. I do know he is getting higher, however I’m unsure he is getting higher sufficient quick sufficient. I do know he could make performs below stress, however I’m unsure he makes sufficient large ones. I’ve one job (actually, that is my job), and I nonetheless cannot work out what to do about Bryce Young.

Four things I would possibly assume

I would assume … the Buccaneers are again. Tampa Bay has a line of defense stuffed with butt kickers who fold within the pocket on each passing down and a pair of lights-out corners on the surface who can problem anybody in man-to-man conditions. The Buccaneers’ protection seemed like what I lengthy believed it might Sunday towards the Panthers.

I would assume … Tee Higgins is the Eleventh-best receiver in soccer. In no explicit order: Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson. Those are the ten higher than Tee. Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are with him in that subsequent tier.

I would assume … Houston nonetheless is not out of it. Pull a string on my again and I say “Houston’s advanced metrics are still pretty good!” Even with the journey again from London, the lookahead to the bye week and the recent sport by Giants QB J.J. McCarthy all thought of … it’s extremely embarrassing to lose to the Giants. Still, Houston can go from 2-5 to 5-5 fairly fast. Their subsequent three opponents are on the Chargers (0-6), on the Browns (5-2) and towards the Colts (2-5).

I would assume … 18 is a strong quantity. The Saints had 18 crew speeding yards on 17 carries towards the Steelers. Rookie receiver Cyrus Allen led all Chiefs extensive receivers with 18 receiving yards vs. the Seahawks. You inform me which stat is extra pitiful. (J.J. McCarthy additionally wears 18 now, and he is twice the person “Nine” ever was).