Is there anything good about the 24-team CFP expansion?

For greater than 50 years, we argued about it. Starting round 1960 with Northwestern athletic director Stu Holcomb’s proposal for a “World Series” of college football — six convention champions and the prime two independents enjoying a three-round event, all completed by Jan. 1 — the din of a playoff debate was by no means far in the distance. Because a number of the most influential folks in the faculty soccer business (specifically, bowl administrators) benefited handsomely from the bowl system, we did not get one till 2014.

College soccer lengthy made a behavior of shifting far too slowly, be it towards a good system for figuring out a nationwide title or towards pretty compensating gamers. But now the gasoline pedal is caught, and we’re flying down the freeway at ridiculous speeds. We can not cease altering issues. Conference realignment gave us supersized and geographically nonsensical conferences. We’ve gone from (legally) paying gamers $0 per 12 months (plus instructional advantages) to amassing over $40 million rosters. And beginning in 2027, we’ll have a playoff six instances larger than the one we received simply 12 years in the past. Unlike when that one got here round, only a few folks have been clamoring for this one.

According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Heather Dinich, the College Football Playoff and ESPN are nearing a deal to expand the playoff in 2027. Whether any of us likes it or not, it is coming. Let’s discuss about why, what this modifications and the way it will impression the manner we watch the recreation.

I’ve made it clear what I believe about this

Back in May, when the push for 24-team inevitability received rolling, I shared plenty of thoughts on the matter. Some bullet factors:

• The total faculty soccer business is constructed round the TV rankings pulled by large video games (most of them in the common season) performed in entrance of giant crowds. Voluntarily making these video games much less vital, whereas additionally quickly elevating ticket costs and stress on donors to donate, is enjoying with hearth. All the complaints from playoff skeptics in the previous — about the broken integrity of the common season, to not point out the hurt to bowls, would ring dramatically true in a manner it did not with a four- or 12-team CFP.

• The logistical puzzle of including a fifth playoff spherical when you have not even mastered 4 but — and when your December-January calendar is already its personal mess that must be discovered — is an pointless complication.

• Although massive playoffs at the decrease ranges of school soccer will be pleasant, each different degree contains convention champions, however we’re not doing that. There’s no room for the MAC champion when an 8-4 Big Ten workforce must be rewarded for a way a lot cash it is spending.

• We’re going from handing out 15-20 mulligans per 12 months (that is roughly the variety of mixed losses groups in the 12-team CFP have) to 45-50. We’re due to this fact decreasing the stakes for about 30 further video games per 12 months — that includes actually good groups, no much less — and we’re changing that with greater stakes for lesser groups.

• As a part of the trade-off for including an additional spherical, conferences are evidently going to ditch their title video games. There are methods round that, as I’ll discuss about beneath, however ditching them means eliminating much more in-season jeopardy.

There are three predominant (and not less than semi-legitimate) arguments I’ve seen for a 24-teamer. I simply do not suppose they’re good sufficient.

1. If we’re rewarding extra groups with playoff berths, it might tamp down a training carousel that appears to be getting crazier and louder. (There’s a cause the solely folks I heard actually arguing for a 24-teamer, earlier than Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, have been coaches.) Here’s a reminder that Penn State fired James Franklin half a season after he got here inside about a minute of the nationwide title recreation. It will take about two or three years for a coach to get fired after a first-round loss. Simply making the CFP will turn out to be much less vital yearly.

2. When Petitti went on his PR campaign to win hearts and minds for twenty-four, he emphasised that if groups have extra margin for error, they’re going to schedule extra thrilling nonconference video games. “We need to play more good games,” he stated. “We get the 24-team playoff, you’re going to see many more competitive games scheduled. We’ll commit to that.” Of course, folks stated the similar factor about a four- and 12-team playoff, and because it turned out, the motivation to easily schedule wins received out. It all the time will.

Beyond that, even when there is a shift in scheduling philosophy, it will not have a fast impact — of the 34 groups in the Big Ten and SEC, 31 are booked up for 2027, 24 are full for 2028 and 14 are maxed out for 2029.

3. Finally, there’s entry. As loads of folks have famous, if a 24-team playoff had been put in in 2014, 80 totally different groups would have made it not less than as soon as in the previous 12 seasons. Fair play: I’ve lengthy shouted about the want for higher entry to a playoff, and that is entry. But it is nearly solely going to be entry for applications from conferences which have lengthy since rigged the recreation of their favor. When the World Cup expanded, it gave the overwhelming majority of recent bids to what you would possibly name soccer’s underserved populations. They have been rewarded with a bounty of magical underdog tales. If Petitti were in charge of World Cup enlargement, he’d have given 36 of the 48 World Cup bids to European groups.

Simulating the previous 5 years

To get the greatest really feel for what we’re getting ourselves into, I’ve discovered it is best to look into the previous. Here are what the previous 5 CFPs would have appeared like had all of them been 24-teamers drawn from the end-of-regular-season CFP rankings.

With Covid-era eligibility oddities, fluctuating depth charts and all kinds of different issues, we would have gotten fairly just a few mid-majors into the 2021 subject, led by unbeaten Cincinnati. But with Georgia comfortably the greatest workforce in the nation, the Bulldogs would have had a 46% likelihood of nonetheless successful the title, per SP+, adopted by Alabama (18%) and Ohio State (16%). Sixteen of 24 groups would have been beneath 1%.

With no convention title recreation, Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans would have fooled everybody into considering they’re contenders all the method to the 2022 playoff, once they’d have seemingly misplaced to Texas or a torrid Florida State in the second spherical. The mid-major bids would have dried up a bit, with solely two Group of 5 groups reaching the subject, and Georgia (33%), Alabama (19%), Michigan (18%) and Ohio State (16%) coming into the CFP with respectable title odds, per SP+. Seventeen of 24 groups, together with USC, would have been beneath 1%.

Per SP+, Michigan and Georgia (which poetically received upset by Nick Saban’s final Alabama workforce in the SEC championship recreation in actual life) have been by far the two greatest groups in the nation in 2023, and they might have entered as title favorites — UGA at 28%, per SP+, and Michigan at 25%. Oregon (13%) and Ohio state (11%) would have led the subsequent rung of contenders. And hey, with greater than 4 groups in the subject, unbeaten Florida State no longer would have gotten screwed! Only one G5 workforce would have made it. Eleven groups would have had a title likelihood beneath 1%.

Two of 2024’s most pleasant tales — Curt Cignetti’s Indiana and Ashton Jeanty’s Boise State — would have gotten alternatives to not solely make the CFP however win some video games. Lane Kiffin’s greatest Ole Miss workforce would have gotten in, too, with an opportunity to make some noise; to me, the Rebels have been proof that the 12-team playoff nonetheless contains a good quantity of regular-season jeopardy. They have been improbable, however they dropped three tight video games and have been eradicated no extra.

This would have been the most wide-open 24-teamer but, with Ohio State main the manner at solely a 23% title likelihood, per SP+, and 4 different groups at 10-15%. Twelve groups nonetheless would have began out beneath 1%.

Notre Dame was to 2025 what Ole Miss was to 2024, however the Irish would have safely been in and sure headed towards a quarterfinal matchup with Indiana, which drew the No. 2 seed solely as a result of there was no likelihood to beat Ohio State in Indianapolis. Of course, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers would have began this playoff as clear favorites — IU at 28%, OSU at 23% — whereas the subsequent 4 seeds would have been at 6-13% and 12 groups beneath 1%.

Would there inevitably have been some classics in the first and second rounds? Of course. Is it value the tradeoffs of enlargement — the diminished regular-season video games (with their as but untold results on attendance or rankings), the infinitely much less fascinating convention races and ties at the prime, and many others.? That’s in the eye of the beholder.

In protection of convention title video games

Conference title video games have gotten a nasty rap over the previous couple of years. Or not less than, some justifiable negativity has been misdirected. The proven fact that some groups play a thirteenth recreation has been an more and more awkward element in the 12-team playoff period — it opens them as much as damage (Georgia’s Carson Beck in 2024), and the CFP committee ties itself in knots to not punish groups for shedding a thirteenth recreation (for instance, Alabama getting smoked by Georgia in 2025 and never falling in the rankings).

The thirteenth recreation ought to certainly be abolished. But there’s a method to have everybody play their twelfth recreation during championship week instead: Especially with each energy convention quickly enjoying nine-game convention schedules (kind of), why could not leagues play eight-game schedules, then decide a full slate of pairings — together with the title recreation — for his or her remaining convention matchups? Wouldn’t that be extra thrilling than merely ditching title video games altogether?

That story from May options much more element, however a flex week method, not fully not like what we’re seeing the Pac-12 try this season, would permit for a lot extra satisfying convention title intrigue and assist us to keep away from four-way ties and whatnot. Plus, these video games are notably profitable for conferences equivalent to the American Conference or MAC; ditching them is only one extra manner the mid-major conferences get screwed on this second.

Every championship weekend options some duds, however with out title video games we would not have gotten Alabama’s 27-24 upset of Georgia in the remaining Saban vs. Kirby Smart recreation, or Baylor‘s by-a-millimeter win over Oklahoma State in the 2021 Big 12 championship, or Clemson‘s 34-31 blow-a-lead-but-win-on-a-long-field-goal win over SMU in the 2024 ACC championship, or No. 2 Indiana’s epic 13-10 rock-fight win over No. 1 Ohio State in the 2025 Big Ten championship, or fairly just a few different classics. Again, the first and second rounds of a CFP would give us doozies, too, however the bar is excessive. And if there actually is a method to hold title video games — and, sure, the cash they create — why would not we?

(At the very least, I’d extremely advise Group of 6 conferences to look into the flex week route even when the massive boys have determined they do not want the tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars}.)

What this does to bowls

Even in the playoff period — with the highest-ranked bowl groups dissatisfied that they did not make the CFP, with stars opting out, and now with a great deal of gamers electing to enter the switch portal as an alternative of bowling — persons are nonetheless watching bowl video games, and so they nonetheless find yourself giving us fairly just a few of the greatest matchups in a given season. They’re principally exhibitions now, however hey, that is what they have been in the mid-1900s, too, proper?

Taking one other 12 groups — and principally all however one ranked workforce — out of the bowl pool, nevertheless, will in all probability have penalties. First, you are going to find yourself with both fewer general bowls or extra sub-.500 groups filling spots. And now the prime groups in the bowl pool are going to be dissatisfied they did not make the CFP and, nicely, simply worse.

Looking at the 2025 bowl pool for example, here is what the prime non-CFP bowls may need appeared like had the prime 24 groups all made the CFP. Instead of worrying about convention ties, I principally simply tried to create the most fascinating potential matchups amongst the greatest or most marketable groups in the pool.

• Citrus Bowl: Missouri (8-4) vs. Illinois (8-4)

• ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee (8-4) vs. TCU (8-4)

• Pop-Tarts Bowl: Louisville (8-4) vs. Arizona State (8-4)

• Alamo Bowl: SMU (8-4) vs. LSU (7-5)

• Gator Bowl: Iowa State (8-4) vs. Nebraska (7-5)

• Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest (8-4) vs. Kansas State (6-6)

• Fenway Bowl: Pitt (8-4) vs. Penn State (6-6)

• Pinstripe Bowl: UConn (9-3) vs. NC State (7-5)

• Texas Bowl: Clemson (7-5) vs. Northwestern (6-6)

• Liberty Bowl: James Madison (11-1) vs. Duke (7-5)

There will likely be loads of mid-majors with good data overlooked of CFP consideration, and I’d love for them to get photographs at larger groups right here, however that is not normally the manner the world works. And I suppose for the Group of 6 champions that are not included in the CFP (which will likely be most of them), they may nearly pair up and try their very own playoff of kinds inside the bowl construction. There’s room for creativity, and folks will nonetheless watch video games like the ones above. But clearly this hits the bowls fairly onerous.

What this does to the Group of 6

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Proposed 24-team CFP would increase entry

I do not precisely disguise my affinity for faculty soccer’s lengthy tail. Boise State’s rise is likely to be my favourite story this sport has ever produced, and the exponential improve in the distance between the richest conferences and everyone else really hurts the sport, for my part, particularly with the switch portal giving them a mechanism for taking all of the G6’s greatest gamers, too (and with out paying a switch price, as in soccer). (Again, protecting the World Cup and watching in particular person as nations equivalent to Cape Verde and DR Congo briefly took over the world did not precisely dissuade me of those emotions.)

As I discussed above, the FBS goes to turn out to be the solely degree of soccer that does not invite all its champions to an enormous playoff. The cruddy districts in highschool ball get illustration, as do anybody who desires it in FCS, Division II or Division III. A 7-10 division champion will get into the NFL playoffs. But as much as 5 of six Group of 6 champions in a given season will likely be turned away for an 8-4 SEC workforce that has already gotten fairly just a few (seemingly failed) photographs at the elites. That’s an enormous slap in the face.

On prime of all that, a brand new scheduling coverage will make issues even worse. To get the SEC on board with the 24-team plan, a 10-game power-conference scheduling dedication was organized. Power-conference groups will now have solely two spots left for G6 or FCS opponents. And guess what: They will not be scheduling the good ones. No one’s going to wish to play James Madison or Boise State — the energy colleges want the wins! And then guess what’s going to occur to an 11-1 James Madison with no power-conference opponents? The Dukes will get overlooked of the prime 24 as a result of they did not schedule ambitiously sufficient. Fun recreation, huh?

The ‘How Sports Fall From Grace’ guidelines

Last 12 months, I wrote a e book known as “Forward Progress,” a take a look at principally how we received to this second of change in faculty soccer and the place I assumed we have been going with it. Granted, I far underestimated the odds of a 24-team playoff taking impact (particularly this shortly), but it surely’s nonetheless a fairly informational learn. And one among the key chapters is named “How Sports Fall From Grace.”

With attendance ranges and TV rankings regular, there’s no actual method to say that faculty soccer is affected by the waves of modifications, in style and unpopular. So I wrote about the classes that might be realized from different sports activities that did see their reputation fade via some mixture of unforced errors and poor fortune — NASCAR, boxing, and even baseball and faculty basketball to a level.

With these classes in thoughts, I got here up with a nine-item guidelines for placing your self in severe hazard. If you are in hassle, you will not know till it is too late, and damned if faculty soccer is not treating this like a to-do listing.

1. Don’t take your core followers with no consideration. College soccer has by no means performed this greater than it is doing in the 2020s.

2. Don’t change an excessive amount of directly. Check.

3. Keep your product the place your viewers can see it. It’s positively slightly trickier now and would possibly require one other streaming subscription.

4. Keep the individuals (as) wholesome (as potential). This will all the time be a difficulty with a sport this violent, however not less than we’re paying guys to play as much as 17 video games in a season now!

5. Don’t make your title race too onerous to comply with. I used to be referring to the infinite tweaks to NASCAR’s factors race, however should you twist it a bit, you would say that the CFP committee has positively made issues troublesome in its personal manner.

6. Fans hate fights over cash. This one is likely to be a much bigger struggle in the coming years.

7. Too a lot inequality sucks (or not less than, it would not assist). This one has all the time been a difficulty for faculty soccer, however, mercy, is the inequality rising shortly, not less than between powers and mid-majors.

8. You haven’t got as a lot management over every part as you suppose. Maybe every part’s advantageous so long as the economic system is nice, but when there’s a downturn, or journey prices undergo the roof, or a household’s leisure price range is stretched in different instructions, you would possibly immediately lose a number of informal followers and discover that you simply took your core followers with no consideration, and so they aren’t there once you want them.

9. Understand your roots. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State aren’t enjoying towards one another in soccer. Mizzou-Kansas and Pitt-West Virginia play solely sometimes. Oregon and Oregon State aren’t enjoying this 12 months. The roots will not be wholesome.

When the strangest waves of realignment have been hitting simply as the CFP was increasing to 12 groups and gamers began making respectable cash, there was a number of hand-wringing about how we’re killing the sport, the way it will turn out to be unrecognizable quickly, how Alabama coaches will sit key gamers for the Iron Bowl as a result of it would not matter in the event that they win or lose. My response at the time was constant: Just belief the product. Ohio State and Texas in early September will all the time really feel massive even when each groups begin each season nearly assured of a CFP bid. The Iron Bowl will all the time be monumental. And in addition to, we have by no means watched this sport due to high quality management — I do know that as a result of it is by no means had any! It has all the time been ridiculous, and but we’re nonetheless all right here.

Now, I suppose I’ve to inform myself that. I used to be in favor of each playoff thought and each playoff enlargement proposal till now, however that is the first one I simply can’t get behind. In my head, not less than, that issues. I’ll nonetheless write big first- and second-round playoff previews, and I’ll nonetheless discuss about as many groups and stakes as potential in my in-season content material. But even when this sport’s management has by no means been sturdy or useful, this enlargement is the greatest reminder but that the leaders do not give a single rattling about what we wish or suppose. And that is onerous to swallow.