Connelly Week 6 preview – Things get real in SEC, Big Ten
The first 5 weeks of the faculty soccer season have been enjoyable, however now it is time to get severe. It’s Georgia-Bama time. OU-Texas time. USC-Penn State won’t be as large because it appeared it could be, however that is superb — UCLA-Oregon and Nebraska-Indiana are a lot larger!
Week 6 provides us some large-time matchups in large-time Big Ten and SEC venues (and, in no less than one case, with large-time climate). Meanwhile, the Big 12 will separate some wheat from chaff; each North Dakota State and Boise State face stiff assessments in the Group of 6; Friday evening ought to supply readability on Florida State’s rebound hopes and Iowa’s potential playoff push; Missouri appears to be like to keep away from the SEC’s Main Character Curse; the race for the ACC’s No. 2 spot heats up; Jeremiah Smith goes for a 3rd straight 200-yard recreation; and on the smaller-college degree we get a prime-10 battle in FCS and a prime-2 battle in Division III.
Are you out of breath but? Week 6 is loaded! Here’s all the things it’s essential observe.
All occasions Eastern.
A helmet recreation weekend in the SEC
We’re by solely 19 of 72 SEC convention video games, and we’re already all the way down to solely three unbeaten groups in league play: Alabama, Georgia and Texas. At most, we’ll have solely two left after Saturday. Even if heavy rain impacts Georgia-Bama and Oklahoma’s cruddy offense tamps down the OU-Texas pleasure, we nonetheless have an enormous pair of helmet video games lined up Saturday, plus an enormous journey north for prime-10 LSU.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
All the greats have their bogey group. Tom Brady’s New England Patriots had the New York Giants. Bayern Munich has Borussia Mönchengladbach. And evidently Kirby Smart’s Georgia has Alabama. Granted, Bama might be too good to be a real bogey, however because the begin of 2017, Smart’s Bulldogs are 114-16 total — 2-7 towards the Crimson Tide and 112-9 towards everybody else.
Smart seems to be fielding his greatest Georgia group since 2023. The Dawgs have discovered a degree of explosiveness that they misplaced in current years, and their run protection is totally ruthless. There have been some glitches in move protection, however nothing overly worrisome — they’re nonetheless eleventh in yards allowed per dropback. They’ve received their first three SEC video games by a median of 41-15.
Granted, this additionally appears to be like like one of the best Bama group since about 2022. Even with a protection that additionally provides up some large performs, the Tide are combining stellar run protection with perhaps essentially the most excessive-upside offense in the nation. Keelon Russell is sort of on tempo to mix 4,000 passing yards with 800 non-sack dashing yards, and he has unlocked huge potential from the receiver duo of Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks (mixed: 728 yards, 17.8 per catch). The Tide have scored no less than 45 factors in each recreation.
Georgia has been dominant from the beginning, and Bama is enhancing quickly. This is the proper time for them to fulfill, except for that entire “The weather might be absolutely atrocious” factor. The present forecast suggests the results of Hurricane Isaias may peak earlier Saturday and sluggish a bit by the night. Here’s to hoping. Then once more, with the best way these groups are enjoying, even when this recreation is messy and sloppy, we’d have one other couple of Georgia-Bama video games to sit up for this season.
Current line: Bama -1.5 (flipped from UGA -1.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 2.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 0.9
No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Oklahoma’s offense is each unhealthy and unfortunate. Quarterback John Mateer and the Sooners rank 112th in each yards per play and factors per drive, and their damage record is gigantic. They’re additionally experiencing a number of the worst turnovers luck conceivable — primarily based on typical averages for fumble recoveries and INT-to-breakup ratios, they need to have anticipated about 5.3 turnovers thus far this yr; they’ve as an alternative dedicated 10.
The OU protection stays unbelievable, and with just a bit assist it might give the Sooners a puncher’s probability towards Texas and its more and more wobbly assault.
Arch Manning‘s productiveness has been reducing by the week, no less than in half as a result of Texas’ multimillion-greenback run recreation is not performing any higher than final yr’s. Texas ranks one hundred and twentieth in yards per carry, not together with sacks (4.3); working again Hollywood Smothers has struggled with damage, and the offensive line hasn’t improved this season as hoped.
These struggles have created extra second- and third-and-longs for Manning — and, subsequently, extra blitzes. He’s not dealing with it nicely: Against the blitz he ranks 84th in uncooked QBR (61.9), 91st in yards per dropback (5.8), 117th in sack charge (12.5%) and 124th in sacks per stress (38.5%).
Oklahoma has one of the best sack charge in the nation, by the best way.
Again, this issues provided that the Sooners can rating. Texas is coming off a ridiculously disruptive efficiency towards Tennessee in Knoxville, and Will Muschamp’s protection is as much as fifth in factors allowed per drive. The Longhorns’ run protection is merely good, not nice, however that will not matter Saturday — OU would not have a run recreation.
Current line: UT by 7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: UT by 9.9 | FPI projection: UT by 14.9
No. 10 LSU at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN)
LSU has scored no less than 35 factors in 4 of 5 video games and has allowed 14 or fewer 4 occasions. Other than the tough journey to Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin’s Tigers have largely appeared the half in 2026.
Their second street journey is a difficult one. It appears to be like like it is going to be a wet night in Lexington, and Kentucky boasts each an excellent-bodily run recreation and a protection that creates a great deal of turnover alternatives. The Wildcats are simply concerning the worst group in the nation on third downs — 138th in conversion charge on offense, 123rd on protection — however they’ve nonetheless crushed Texas A&M and South Carolina. LSU’s A-recreation takes Kentucky down, however the Wildcats are resourceful sufficient to make this messy if Sam Leavitt begins turning the ball over.
Current line: LSU -8.5 (down from -10) | SP+ projection: LSU by 13.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 9.6
Prove-It Week in the Big Ten
White Out in Happy Valley is a desperation recreation for Lincoln Riley and USC, however it’s solely the third-greatest Big Ten recreation of the weekend. UCLA and Nebraska, each unbeaten and glorious towards lesser competitors, get their large nationwide auditions — UCLA will attempt to beat Oregon in Eugene for the primary time since 2004, and Nebraska will attempt to beat a defending nationwide champion for the primary time since 2001.
No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
UCLA hasn’t at all times appeared nearly as good because it did in its 54-3 cross-nation win over Maryland, however the Bruins have began 4-0 by leaning closely into two main strengths: a dynamite run recreation and a wealth of defensive playmakers. It’s been sufficient to offset a mediocre passing recreation and occasional large-play points on protection.
Oregon has confronted some strong run video games in 2026 (Boise State, Oklahoma State, USC) and ranks a good fortieth in yards allowed per carry, however UCLA is first in the nation in total yards per carry and, thanks primarily to Wayne Knight, second in yards per carry after contact.
Knight and Anthony Woods are averaging 8.4 yards per carry between them. Oregon’s move protection has struggled, however nearly all of Nico Iamaleava‘s success has come from having the ability to throw on preoccupied defenses. If the Ducks can sluggish Knight and Woods, they’re going to decelerate Iamaleava.
UCLA’s protection is aggressive to a fault — the Bruins are thirteenth in success charge allowed however 106th in yards allowed per profitable play. Oregon’s run recreation hasn’t been as sturdy as anticipated, however the passing recreation is definitely environment friendly. Dylan Raiola was excellent filling in for the injured Dante Moore towards USC and can begin once more Saturday. The recreation could possibly be determined by how nicely the Ducks counterpunch in the face of aggression from gamers similar to OLB Sammy Omosigho and defensive finish Sahir West.
Current line: Oregon -11.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 10.0 | FPI projection: Oregon by 14.6
No. 7 Indiana at Nebraska (midday, Fox)
Nebraska is 5-0 and has overachieved towards projections each week. The Cornhuskers have but to face an SP+ prime-60 opponent, however flaws can nonetheless emerge towards a lightweight schedule, and Nebraska hasn’t actually clued us in on any obtrusive points but. Raiola’s substitute in Lincoln, veteran Anthony Colandrea, is contributing well timed dashing, few detrimental performs and strong accuracy. The large performs are minimal, because the chart under exhibits, however he has been glorious.
Indiana, after all, is an ideal opponent for locating out whether or not Nebraska is for real. The Hoosiers by no means go three-and-out, they’ve an unimaginable working again duo in Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr., Josh Hoover is finishing 71% of his passes (with zero INTs), and whereas the protection will get hit by an enormous move play once in a while, sustaining something towards IU has been nearly not possible.
Nebraska hasn’t crushed an AP prime-seven group since a wild 39-38 win over Michigan State in 2015. Indiana will inform us simply how critically we must be taking these Huskers.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 7.7 | FPI projection: Indiana by 6.9
No. 19 USC at Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
This is a reasonably determined White Out recreation. Matt Campbell’s Penn State had a ridiculously simple schedule by Big Ten requirements, which added some first-yr stress, however the Nittany Lions have misplaced two in a row and are, per SP+, projected favorites in solely certainly one of their subsequent 4 video games.
Lincoln Riley, after all, got here into 2026 going through much more stress, and whereas Jayden Maiava and the offense are as environment friendly as ever, coordinator Gary Patterson’s protection is 113th in factors allowed per possession regardless of having performed just one SP+ prime-50 offense. With Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA remaining on the docket, this one’s a should-win for the Trojans. PSU won’t have the offensive firepower to punish USC, however evidently bettors assume a White Out crowd may be capable to get the job accomplished by itself.
Since Riley took over in 2022, USC on the street is 6-0 as a double-digit favourite, 5-5 as a single-digit favourite and 0-5 as an underdog. Uh oh.
Current line: PSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 0.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 4.2
A bit of readability in a complicated Big 12 race
The Big 12 race is in an attention-grabbing place. Unbeaten Utah, Texas Tech and BYU may be a step or two forward of the pack, however six one-loss groups (Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas State and Oklahoma State) have appeared the half at occasions. Two of the first contenders host attention-grabbing underdogs this week, and three different video games will inform us fairly a bit about these secondary contenders.
Iowa State at No. 8 BYU (Friday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Obviously everybody performs higher towards unhealthy defenses than good ones, however Iowa State’s splits by 5 video games have been superb.
ISU vs. three defenses ranked 107th or worse in SP+: 46.0 PPG, 7.4 yards per play, 46.8% success charge
ISU vs. two prime-20 defenses: 15.0 PPG, 4.5 yards per play, 34.1% success charge
Star working again Aiden Flora has averaged 11.0 yards per carry towards the previous group and 4.5 towards the latter. Unfortunately, there are much more good defenses left on the Cyclones’ schedule than unhealthy ones, and BYU’s would not permit large performs or yards after contact.
I’m curious concerning the Cougars’ offense, although: In admittedly inclement situations final week at TCU, it averaged simply 3.5 yards per play. Star working again LJ Martin is out for a couple of weeks with damage, and although backup Journee Tonga has been glorious in a small pattern, quarterback Bear Bachmeier might need to make extra performs on passing downs than he’s used to.
Current line: BYU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 16.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 14.0
Kansas at No. 12 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Kansas’ protection has surged this season — the Jayhawks rank first in success charge allowed (28.0%) and fifth in third-down conversion charge allowed (24.1%). They’re additionally simply 2-2, nonetheless, due to a mistake-susceptible offense. Quarterback Isaiah Marshall is seemingly able to solely the best and worst performs, and towards an excellent Utah move protection (second in yards allowed per dropback), it is simple to imagine catastrophe.
We’ll no less than study loads concerning the Utah offense. With Devon Dampier handing to Wayshawn Parker and throwing to Parker and Braden Pegan, Utah is ninth in factors per drive with nearly no three-and-outs. But towards the one prime-50 offense the Utes confronted (Iowa State’s), Dampier averaged simply 11.4 yards per completion, and the Utes wanted a heavy dose of Parker — and a quick begin — to outlive.
Current line: Utah -15.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 16.7 | FPI projection: Utah by 17.7
No. 22 Houston at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
This may be essentially the most attention-grabbing power-versus-power and weak spot-versus-weak spot matchup of Week 6. Kansas State’s run recreation is brutally environment friendly, however yards have been laborious to come back by by the air. Meanwhile, Houston’s protection ranks sixteenth in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks) however 87th in yards per dropback.
The Kansas State protection is aggressive and entertaining, by which I imply it is probably the most all-or-nothing models in the nation.
Houston would not create all that many chunk performs, nonetheless. The Cougars’ offense is an effectivity machine going up towards an environment friendly protection — Houston is second in success charge, and Okay-State is fifth in success charge allowed. Something has to provide!
Current line: Okay-State -2.5 | SP+ projection: Okay-State by 1.2 | FPI projection: Okay-State by 0.3
UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State (midday, ESPN2)
UCF led Houston 17-0 with 19 minutes left final week however collapsed late. The Knights have performed largely stellar protection, and random large performs from RB Duke Watson and WR Josh Derry give them upset potential, however they’ve fallen brief towards each of the highest-40 opponents they’ve confronted, and QB Alonza Barnett III stays out with damage.
OSU has been superior because the Week 1 loss to Tulsa. Drew Mestemaker is on tempo for an additional 4,000-yard passing season, and although the OSU protection is shaky towards the run — which opens the door for Watson — it has been nice towards the move. If the Pokes can drive UCF delayed semi-constantly, that is curtains for an upset bid.
Current line: OSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 4.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 4.4
Arizona at West Virginia (midday, TNT)
In chronological order, listed here are the overall factors in West Virginia video games this yr: 55, 59, 65, 65, 87. By the tip of the yr, the Mountaineers might be enjoying 70-63 video games like it’s 2012 all over again. But for now, they desperately want a robust efficiency after an 0-2 begin in convention play.
Arizona is coming off its greatest efficiency of the season, a blowout of Cincinnati, and Noah Fifita‘s excessive-effectivity passing may be an excessive amount of for the WVU protection to deal with. But the Mountaineers’ offense is exclusive and enjoyable and can check what has been, so far, a robust Arizona entrance.
Current line: Arizona -3 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 9.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.6
The Group of 6 video games of the week
You might say the highest 4 contenders in the hunt for the Group of 6’s automated CFP berth are, in some order, James Madison, Boise State, Memphis and the approaching North Dakota State-New Mexico winner. But earlier than I can proceed my marketing campaign for “College GameDay” to go to Albuquerque for that one, NDSU faces an enormous street check towards UNLV. Meanwhile, Boise State heads to Fresno to face its bogey group. SP+ says there’s solely a 47% probability each street groups win.
North Dakota State at UNLV (7 p.m., The CW)
After a irritating 1-2 begin, UNLV has lastly begun scoring factors. Quarterback Jackson Arnold remains to be taking too many sacks — three extra towards Cal final week — however working again Jai’Den Thomas and Arnold are producing on the bottom. The Rebels’ offense remains to be all or nothing, however the “alls” are growing.
NDSU prevents large performs superbly and pressures passers (due to ends Matthew Stenbroten and Kelton McCaslin) and forces turnovers. The Bison might overcome a few large performs, particularly if NDSU quarterback Nathan Hayes retains discovering receivers Jackson Williams and Mekhi Collins for giant gainers.
Current line: NDSU -3 | SP+ projection: NDSU by 10.3 | FPI projection: UNLV by 0.9
No. 23 Boise State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., The CW)
Boise State has gone a mixed 16-4 in the 2020s towards present Pac-12 mates not named Fresno State. But the Broncos are 2-3 towards the Bulldogs, together with a 30-7 thumping final yr. Fresno State has pounded 4 straight weak opponents since a season-opening no-present towards USC. Have the Bulldogs improved or have they merely been feasting on inferior opponents?
Boise State has been in cruise management since Week 2’s spectacular win over Memphis, however accidents in the ability corps are including up, and the Broncos may be with out their prime two RBs and two beginning WRs. With JMU and doubtlessly NDSU every having first rate odds of going unbeaten, the Broncos won’t be capable to afford a second loss.
Current line: BSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 5.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 8.3
Week 6 chaos superfecta
We’re as soon as once more utilizing this area to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly large level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-pleasant quantity. Thanks to Purdue’s win over Illinois in Champaign, we’re now 4-for-5 for the season! Let’s maintain the great occasions rolling.
We’re going with an SEC theme this week: Though Ole Miss (-9.5 at Vanderbilt), Florida (-11.5 vs. South Carolina), LSU (-8.5 at Kentucky) and Tennessee (-13.5 at Arkansas) all began out this week favored by double digits, SP+ says there’s solely a 29% probability all 4 favorites win. I really like these odds! Choose your sufferer!
Week 6 playlist
Here are some extra video games you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each data and leisure views.
Friday night
Florida State at Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN). Was FSU’s blowout of Virginia an indication of a nook turned or only a good efficiency from an inconsistent group? If it is the previous, no less than 5 of seven remaining video games are winnable, together with this one towards explosive however defensively subpar Louisville. But if it was a short up earlier than an inevitable down, Lincoln Kienholz (again from damage) and the Cardinals will draw back.
Current line: Louisville -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.1
No. 20 Iowa at Washington (9 p.m., Fox). Iowa took its drugs towards Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State, however the 4-1 Hawkeyes have solely two extra SP+ prime-40 opponents left. The subsequent three offenses they face are iffy, so if the Hawkeyes’ offense can simply dig up 21 factors or so, there are many wins on the desk. Of course, if Washington can maintain USC to 25 factors, the Huskies can maintain Iowa to half that, particularly at residence.
Current line: UW -3 | SP+ projection: UW by 2.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.6
Early Saturday
Texas A&M at No. 14 Missouri (midday, ABC). Beware of the SEC’s Main Character Curse. Ole Miss received a recreation towards LSU, then face-planted towards Florida, which earned mega-buzz and acquired thumped by Missouri. The Tigers have been higher than Texas A&M this yr, particularly at QB, however A&M acquired some confidence again in blowing out Arkansas, and if the Tigers — all of the sudden banged up on protection — are hungover, a fourth straight loss to the Aggies is on the desk.
Current line: Mizzou -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 9.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.5
North Carolina at No. 25 Pitt (midday, ESPN). You by no means need to discover out in case your backup QB state of affairs is ample, however Pitt is about to. The unbeaten Panthers have a wonderful protection, and UNC’s Billy Edwards Jr. & Co. most likely do not have the massive-play capabilities to attain a lot. But whereas journeyman Holden Geriner did simply sufficient to inch Pitt previous Virginia Tech final week after Mason Heintschel‘s season-ending damage, UNC’s protection has a bit of movie on him and is nice sufficient to provide him points.
Current line: Pitt -4 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 15.3 | FPI projection: Pitt by 9.1
South Carolina at No. 16 Florida (12:45 p.m., SECN). South Carolina has misplaced three in a row, and the subsequent three video games are towards SP+ prime-25 groups. Of course, the Gamecocks additionally nearly beat Mississippi State and Kentucky. Their run recreation is great, their run protection is nice, and finish Dylan Stewart may return. Florida was humbled by Missouri final week, and whereas I wager the Gators reply nicely, their protection nonetheless is not nice. A monitor meet is not out of the query if the rain permits.
Current line: Florida -11.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Florida by 8.4 | FPI projection: Florida by 8.5
Wake Forest at NC State (midday, The CW). Wake Forest is enhancing by the week; the Gio Lopez-to-Carlos Hernandez mixture has the Demon Deacons as much as fifteenth in factors per drive, and a bend-do not-break protection is solidifying. But NC State is also enhancing. The Wolfpack have received two straight, and although the protection nonetheless provides up large performs, the State passing recreation is making extra too.
Current line: Wake -3.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 5.1 | FPI projection: Wake by 6.2
Saturday afternoon
Duke at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Another one for the “potential downpours” record. Duke has allowed greater than seven factors simply as soon as in 4 video games, and in lead again Nate Sheppard, the Blue Devils might need simply the man to grind out a win on a sloppy monitor. Georgia Tech is 1-3 regardless of having performed just one group ranked greater than 84th in SP+; beginning with Duke, six of the Yellow Jackets’ final eight opponents are in the highest 50.
Current line: Duke -6.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 8.1 | FPI projection: Duke by 8.3
No. 15 Tennessee at Arkansas (4:15 p.m., SECN). George MacIntyre takes over for Faizon Brandon (2.1 yards per dropback in his final two begins) as Tennessee’s beginning QB. Running again DeSean Bishop and an more and more glorious protection have been sufficient to get previous Auburn, and Auburn is best than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have a star in receiver Chris Marshall, however they want a lot greater than they’ve.
Current line: Vols -13.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 18.9 | FPI projection: Vols by 16.1
No. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Ole Miss acquired a bye week to provide you with options for a protection that ranks 123rd in factors per drive. Even Vanderbilt’s offense (99th) may discover some benefits towards that. Trinidad Chambliss ought to lead the Rebels previous the Commodores, however their schedule is simply too laborious for them to contend for the CFP with out huge defensive enchancment.
Current line: Ole Miss -9.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 3.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 7.9
Maryland at No. 5 Ohio State (4:15 p.m., BTN). Maryland ranks one hundred and fifth in passing success charge allowed and 109th in completion charge allowed. While the Terrapins have suffered these averages towards a robust set of offenses, none of these opponents had Jeremiah Smith. If Ohio State desires to get him one other 200-yard receiving recreation, he’ll get it.
Current line: OSU -34.5 | SP+ projection: OSU -30.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 35.3
Stanford at No. 3 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Stanford has performed three video games towards SP+ prime-50 opponents and has misplaced them by a median of 46-5. Notre Dame is fourth in SP+. Only yet another week till Notre Dame performs BYU and we get a real impression of the Fighting Irish.
Current line: Irish -38.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 42.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 44.6
Saturday night
Minnesota at Purdue (8 p.m., BTN). Purdue conjured its greatest efficiency of the Barry Odom period in a win over Illinois, whereas Minnesota has received three in a row and beat Michigan to take the Little Brown Jug for the primary time in 12 years. PJ Fleck is somehow turning into even extra Fleckian, if that’s possible? The vibes are fairly good right here, although Minnesota’s could be even higher with a win and a primary 3-0 Big Ten begin since 2019.
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 6.6 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.1
James Madison at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). Billy Napier’s JMU Dukes are projected favorites of no less than 12 factors in each remaining recreation. Their odds of attending to 12-0 are sturdy. But Paulson Stadium might be hostile and very moist, and JMU misplaced by 14 right here two years in the past. The Eagles’ offense is enhancing, and the protection forces a number of three-and-outs. Can the Dukes keep on monitor?
Current line: JMU -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: JMU by 15.0 | FPI projection: JMU by 11.3
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). These faculties are separated by about 200 miles, however they’ve performed solely twice since 2004. Luckily they’re convention mates now! Tech is all or nothing on each offense and protection, whereas Louisiana neither makes nor permits many large performs. Fun contrasts. The winner might be in glorious form in the Sun Belt West.
Current line: Tech -3 | SP+ projection: Louisiana by 4.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.0
San Diego State at Oregon State (6 p.m., USA). SDSU overcame each unhealthy stats and the mumps to knock off Texas State final week, however nobody has slowed the Oregon State offense but — Braden Atkinson may hit 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs this yr. OSU has emerged as Boise State’s greatest Pac-12 menace however cannot afford a stumble earlier than journeys to Fresno and Boise.
Current line: OSU -15.5 (up from -14) | SP+ projection: OSU by 15.1 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.3
Late Saturday
Hawai’i at Arizona State (9:30 p.m., FS1). After an terrible efficiency towards Baylor, ASU desperately must get again on monitor. Luckily, the Sun Devils are internet hosting one of many nation’s extra disappointing groups, a Hawai’i squad that has underachieved towards projections in each recreation. Someone will rating a rebound win in Tempe, and WR Reed Harris might be far too explosive for the Rainbow Warriors.
Current line: ASU -20.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 15.3 | FPI projection: ASU by 17.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the wonderful decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games you need to monitor.
FCS: Dartmouth at Yale (midday, ESPNU). I do not understand how, however final week, a day after the death of former Yale head coach Tony Reno, who resigned earlier this yr due to well being points, his Bulldogs, led by quarterback Dante Reno (Tony’s son), beat Merrimack comfortably. Reno threw 4 landing passes. Now comes a check towards convention mate Dartmouth; the Big Green at all times have a stalwart protection and beat Penn 14-10 final week. Despite a shocking loss at Cornell, Yale nonetheless has Ivy League title and playoff potential, however the Bulldogs’ resiliency might be examined massively.
SP+ projection: Yale by 9.7.
FCS: No. 2 Tarleton State at No. 8 Austin Peay (7 p.m., ESPN+). Jeff Faris’ Austin Peay group (third in FCS SP+) has crushed 5 FCS opponents by a median of 43-14 and pissed off Vanderbilt nicely into the second half. Todd Whitten’s Tarleton State (fifth in SP+), in the meantime, beat Bowling Green and has received its final two video games by a mixed 101-41. This is without doubt one of the larger video games in the historical past of APSU’s Fortera Stadium, and it is price a spot in your Saturday night quad field.
SP+ projection: APSU by 3.9.
Division III: No. 2 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central (7 p.m., local streaming). The Battle for the Little Brass Bell is the most important recreation of the Division III season. North Central and Wheaton are separated by 10 miles and are proper subsequent to one another on the prime of the polls. North Central has already crushed a pair of prime-10 opponents, whereas Wheaton has received its final 4 video games by a median of 47-7. Wheaton hasn’t even stayed inside 12 factors of NCC since a win in 2019, however quarterback Mark Forcucci is tremendous environment friendly, and a ridiculously lively Thunder protection already has 9 gamers with no less than two tackles for loss. Can the guests spring a crosstown upset in Naperville?
SP+ projection: North Central by 10.4.