Tomorrow’s Top 25 projects college football rankings after Week 4

When you spend all week discussing the ranked-on-ranked matchups on the college football schedule, you simply know a shake-up is coming to the college football rankings. Yes, with a half-dozen video games between groups ranked within the AP Top 25 ballot, we’re more likely to see one in every of our largest weeks of upheaval, and the adjustments come not simply on account of these top-tier collisions but additionally from sudden upsets which can be going to problem voters’ preseason positions on prime groups. 

There might be a rankings shift after Florida toppled Ole Miss and Oregon picked up a street win at USC. But Week 4 additionally noticed Penn State and Louisville lose to unranked groups at residence, and reigning champion Indiana survive an upset scare. All of it gives needed info for AP voters as they negotiate the ultimate spots on their ballots, which might be submitted on Sunday for the brand new college football rankings. 

The headline change in per week of change goes to be Florida’s rise after a 52-28 win in opposition to No. 4 Ole Miss in The Swamp. The Gators discovered the tip zone quick and early, driving star operating again (*25*) to the signature win of the early Jon Sumrall period. The presence of Sumrall as a Year 1 coach in Gainesville units the stage for Florida’s return to the highest of the game, as he is already set to place this system able it hasn’t seen for the reason that Dan Mullen period. We venture an increase for Florida from No. 21 as much as the highest 10, which might mark the Gators’ first top-10 rating within the AP ballot since September 2021. For all of the hand-wringing about what Florida might and couldn’t accomplish during the last 4 years, Sumrall has hit the bottom operating and instantly delivered a product that meets their championship commonplace. 

Elsewhere within the rankings, we are going to discover some fallout from that outcome on the Ole Miss facet, plus some two-way motion after Oregon’s street win at USC. Because after a few weeks with stagnant positions within the ballot, Week 4 and the arrival of convention play have lastly supplied some actual outcomes that spark debates and make issues attention-grabbing up and down the highest 25.   

Here’s how we expect the brand new AP Top 25 ballot will look on Sunday after Week 4 scores and ends in college football: 

1. Texas (Last week — 1): The Longhorns’ efficiency was removed from flawless and at occasions offensive, however finally surviving a troublesome SEC street take a look at with a win in opposition to ranked Tennessee should not dislodge them from the No. 1 spot. The assortment of first-place votes (58-of-69) could begin to wane, however there’s not one other apparent contender for the highest spot set to topple Texas so long as the staff continues to win. 

2. Georgia (2): We lastly obtained to see Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense face some actual resistance in opposition to Oklahoma‘s protection, however the complete competitors in all three phases of the sport was so closely slanted in the direction of the Bulldogs it did not even matter. Stockton had extra incompletions (11) than he had totaled within the first three video games mixed (7), however the staff nonetheless scored 41 factors and gained by 4 touchdowns in opposition to a top quality SEC opponent. That speaks to not solely the excessive degree of play from a hungry Kirby Smart staff, but additionally the depth of the offensive woes for Oklahoma right here on this first month of the season. 

3. Notre Dame (3): The Fighting Irish cruised in opposition to Purdue, notching their 14th straight win by 10+ factors. That ties the longest FBS streak prior to now 10 seasons and extends the longest streak of double-digit wins at school historical past. CJ Carr had a productive day with 4 complete touchdowns, and Notre Dame held serve from a rankings perspective with its 49-10 win. 

4. Miami (6): We’re not projecting a ton of rankings impression from a lopsided win in opposition to Central Michigan. Some shuffling across the prime 10 might result in small changes, however for now the Hurricanes is perhaps caught between No. 6 and No. 3 till that early November showdown with Notre Dame. As lengthy as Miami retains profitable, it should keep inside placing distance of actual consideration for No. 1, however it should take that signature win to make an actual transfer to the highest of the ballot. 

5. Florida (21): A 4-0 report with a top-five win goes to get top-five consideration, and the query is whether or not the Gators have proven sufficient to dislodge the AP voters’ preseason expectations for Indiana. Florida has exceeded expectations in a approach that the Hoosiers in all probability haven’t, and that might open the door to breaking apart a logjam inside the highest 10 above Alabama. Florida operating again Jadan Baugh continues to construct his Heisman Trophy argument with 142 yards and three touchdowns in a large program win. As we talked about earlier, Jon Sumrall has shortly put the Gators again into rivalry like we’ve not seen for the reason that starting of the last decade. 

6. Indiana (5): The margins between the No. 4 and No. 6 groups in final week’s balloting (Ole Miss, Indiana, Miami) have been skinny sufficient to assume there might be some swaps primarily based on efficiency alone. The Hoosiers didn’t dominate Northwestern on Friday night time as many anticipated, and the upset scare might result in some waning confidence of their place as one of many prime groups within the nation. The Hoosiers in all probability will not surrender a spot to Ohio State given their undefeated report, but it surely’s not out of the query.   

7. Ohio State (7): Your weekly Jeremiah Smith spotlight features a career-high 4 landing receptions and one other transfer up within the Ohio State report books. Smith is now tied with David Boston for second-most profession receiving touchdowns (34) at school historical past, and the efficiency makes him simply the second Buckeye to have 200+ receiving yards and 4+ receiving touchdowns in a recreation (Terry Glenn, 1995).  

8. Alabama (8): The Crimson Tide offense proceed to utterly prepare dinner, placing up 40+ factors for the fourth straight recreation as Keelon Russell has now ascended from lately named starter to top-tier SEC quarterback. Russell racked up 5 complete touchdowns within the 49-19 win in opposition to the Gamecocks, which is able to present no less than some debate concerning a transfer up into that top-five vary with different undefeated groups from the SEC. 

9. BYU (9): The Cougars have been off in Week 4 and might be again in motion subsequent Saturday at TCU. 

10. Ole Miss (4): The head-to-head win in opposition to LSU makes for a smart and cozy touchdown spot on the poll for a lot of voters as they modify Ole Miss within the wake of the loss at Florida. The Rebels may not have had the fourth-best staff within the nation within the eyes of an influence score, and that was evident in being a betting underdog in opposition to a staff exterior the highest 20. But its rating nonetheless hangs on one of many higher resumes within the nation and will hold Ole Miss from falling out of the highest 10.  

11. LSU (10): Lane Kiffin’s group wanted a bounce again after final week’s loss at Ole Miss and located a pleasant touchdown in opposition to Texas A&M, sporting down the Aggies for a win that ought to solidify the Tigers’ place as a top-10 contender. The problem, as we famous above, is the head-to-head loss to the Rebels, pushing down their inventory inside the highest 15. 

12. Texas Tech (11): The Red Raiders improved to 4-0 with a win in opposition to Sam Houston that introduced highs and lows. The protection obtained to have a good time two pick-sixes from the identical participant because of Austin Romaine, whereas the offense overcame three interceptions from Will Hammond to attain 49 factors. The closing rating nonetheless appears to be like ok for many voters, even when the efficiency would possibly spark some re-evaluation of their standing on this vary of the rankings. 

13. Utah (15): The Utes have gotten off to some large begins this season, main by 20+ at halftime of all 4 video games throughout their 4-0 begin. This just isn’t a staff poised to make a serious transfer up after holding on to beat Iowa State 31-17 on the street in Week 4, however a staff to watch with a few favorable spots forward earlier than internet hosting BYU on Nov. 7. 

14. Iowa (17): Could the Hawkeyes soar forward of Utah? That’s the true query when it comes to upward momentum within the rankings for a staff and a coach that had a kind of moments within the Big House they’re going to keep in mind eternally. It was Iowa’s first win at Michigan in 16 years, and the 91-yard landing march will eternally be part of this season’s lore. The problem, from a rankings perspective, is the huge hole in voting factors between Utah, Iowa and people groups on the sting of the highest 10. 

15. Oregon (20): After a few weeks questioning what’s incorrect with Oregon, the Ducks endured a scary harm to Dante Moore and located methods to win within the second half at USC. Battling by adversity added to what was already one in every of Oregon’s higher performances of the season, and that ought to spark a good bump up within the rankings. 

16. USC (12): The indisputable fact that Oregon has remained ranked all through its early-season doldrums ought to be excellent news for USC, which does not have a ton of high quality wins to bolster its rankings argument however definitely has appeared higher than most groups in college football. Falling brief in opposition to the Ducks may not sting that a lot within the eyes of the voters, although the head-to-head outcome now turns into the Trojans’ rating anchor when ballots are checking out difficult resumes in the midst of their prime 25 ballots. 

17. Tennessee (14): Two issues will assist Tennessee relating to holding their standing as a prime 25 staff after the loss to Texas. First is the truth that the Vols performed the No. 1 staff within the nation all the way down to the ultimate possessions and misplaced by a discipline aim, maybe proving extra to voters about their high quality than the three wins prior. But the opposite piece of that is the huge turnover that may create a delicate cushion close to the underside of the rankings. With a handful of groups set to drop out of the rankings, it is onerous to see Tennessee being under No. 20 when the ballot resets.   

18. Mississippi State (24): The Bulldogs are set for a lift within the rankings after rising because the winner of a high-level back-and-forth with Missouri. Quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns within the 31-24 win, which now has Mississippi State at 4-0 in back-to-back seasons beneath Jeff Lebby. Most importantly, outlasting the Tigers means the Bulldogs are 2-0 in convention play for the primary time since 2014. 

19. SMU (22): The Mustangs took care of enterprise after a closer-than-expected begin, pulling away for a 10-point win in opposition to Missouri State. SMU’s spot within the rankings might be tenuous within the wake of Louisville’s loss to Wake Forest, however for now the AP voters will not rush to kick this group out of the highest 25. 

20. Houston (25): The Cougars ought to be set for a slight bump up within the rankings after a 14-point win at Georgia Southern in a Homecoming-style recreation for Willie Fritz in Statesboro. The celebration of his time with the Eagles included six complete touchdowns for Connor Weigman (4 passing, two dashing) and a efficiency that solidifies this group as a top-25 staff.   

21. Boise State (NR): This is the second time in 4 weeks that Boise State has walked into what many take into account the “Group of Six Game of the Week” and walked out with a double-digit win. This time it was (*4*), the reigning MAC champs and up to date challenger to Michigan in Ann Arbor, and Spencer Danielson’s crew shined within the highlight.  

22. Oklahoma State (NR): That Week 2 win in opposition to Oregon goes to spice up Oklahoma State’s argument to leap into the highest 25, even when it may not be sufficient to fit the Cowboys forward of the Ducks within the consensus rankings. The Cowboys improved to 3-1 with a aggressive and spectacular win at West Virginia, however the season-opening loss to Tulsa stays a weight that is tough to shake for a lot of voters. 

23. Wisconsin (NR): Voters may not have anticipated to be on this spot three weeks in the past, however for those who take a look at the Badgers’ resume, it is a 3-1 staff with a win at Penn State, and its solely loss is in opposition to top-five Notre Dame. Voters who favor undefeated information will look elsewhere (Nebraska, UCLA, Virginia Tech or Duke), however those that wish to give Luke Fickell’s group a lift within the wake of the huge street win could have the standard win and high quality loss argument to bolster their Wisconsin assist.   

24. UCLA (NR): Bob Chesney’s Bruins made a little bit of an announcement with their thorough takedown of Maryland in College Park on Saturday. UCLA’s protection bottled up Maryland and compelled 5 turnovers on the best way to a 52-3 win that each brings about scorching seat conversations for Mike Locksley but additionally debate as to Chesney’s candidacy as one of the crucial impactful Year 1 coaches on this early a part of the season. 

25. Nebraska (NR): The Cornhuskers might need seen their former quarterback serving to Oregon survive on the street, however in addition they noticed Matt Rhule enhance to 4-0 on the 2026 season with a win at Michigan State. Nebraska had simply two voting factors final week, however after selecting up their first energy convention win of the season might get some consideration from voters seeking to fill out their ballots with undefeated energy convention groups.

Projected to drop out: No. 13 Penn State, No. 16 Louisville, No. 18 Michigan, No. 19 Missouri, No. 23 Texas A&M