Our College Football Playoff, Heisman, national championship and bold predictions for 2026
Who’s going to win the College Football Playoff this season? It’s onerous to think about preseason prognostications going a lot worse than final 12 months, when No. 1 Texas missed the Playoff and No. 2 Penn State and No. 4 Clemson performed one another within the Pinstripe Bowl, ending unranked.
Though Ohio State is No. 1 within the AP Top 25 and the coaches ballot and owns one of the best national championship odds of the 138 FBS teams in Austin Mock’s CFP Predictor, it isn’t the favourite of The Athletic’s faculty soccer employees.
We polled 31 of our writers and editors for national title, Power 4 championship, Playoff and Heisman Trophy picks, and we additionally surveyed greater than 2,000 readers for their championship picks. Here are the outcomes, plus some bolder predictions.
Who will win the national championship?
| Team | Staff | Readers | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
41.9% | 18.9% | 10.4% | |
16.1% | 17.9% | 13.5% | |
16.1% | 20.8% | 10.1% | |
6.5% | 5.5% | 9.6% | |
6.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | |
6.5% | 9.4% | 6.1% | |
3.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | |
3.2% | 0.6% | 2.1% | |
0.0% | 1.3% | 3.4% | |
0.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | |
0.0% | 0.5% | 4.9% |
Is it lastly time for Notre Dame’s 38-year national championship drought to finish?
The Irish are No. 4 within the preseason AP ballot and No. 5 within the coaches ballot, however 13 of our 31 staffers surveyed assume they’re going to win the title after shedding to Ohio State within the championship recreation in 2024 and being the primary group omitted final season.
Eight groups acquired not less than one vote for the national title from our employees, with Ohio State and Oregon tied for second behind Notre Dame. Our readers choose Oregon over Notre Dame and Ohio State in a good battle, adopted by Texas and Georgia.
Why Notre Dame is the employees’s prediction to win the national title
David Ubben
Our employees, our readers and Mock’s model all like a mix of Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon because the three favorites. Let’s flip to The Athletic’s writers and editors for instances for the groups they voted for:
Why Notre Dame?
It’s all aligning for the Irish in 2026. The protection is stacked, led by All-America cornerback Leonard Moore. They have a Heisman candidate at quarterback in CJ Carr. Head coach Marcus Freeman has skilled the duality of main the group to the national championship recreation and narrowly lacking the Playoff the previous two seasons, the latter fueling a potential revenge tour. And the schedule is very favorable, to the purpose that lacking the CFP would imply one thing went spectacularly mistaken. I’m banking on the other.
— Justin Williams
Why Oregon?
With little separation on the prime, I’m reverting to my default: Pick a contender that simply appears due. That’s Oregon, the best program without a championship. Over the final three years, Dan Lanning’s solely 5 losses got here towards groups that gained or performed for the title. The Ducks return standout quarterback Dante Moore with sufficient expertise round him. Coordinator turnover is a priority, however Oregon will shrug that off to win its elusive first ring
— Matt Baker
Why Ohio State?
Because if you happen to’re a boring human like me, you choose the group with most expertise. Sure, there’s an argument the Buckeyes had been probably the most stacked group within the nation final 12 months, and if OSU is to win its second title in three years, QB Julian Sayin must improve. The Buckeyes do have perhaps the toughest three-game stretch in faculty soccer with back-to-back highway video games at Indiana and USC earlier than internet hosting Oregon. I’m banking on OSU staying wholesome and protecting the Big Ten’s title streak rolling.
— Chris Kamrani
Why Miami?
The Hurricanes have the quarterback, three 1,000-yard weapons on offense (Malachi Toney, Cooper Barkate and Mark Fletcher) and the depth to cease dwelling on vibes and begin appearing like a national title group. Duke switch Darian Mensah offers offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson the brains and deep ball to revive the explosiveness Miami misplaced final 12 months with Carson Beck. Corey Hetherman’s protection needs to be sooner and nastier in Year 2. The offensive line is the massive query. If that group holds — and it ought to, contemplating that’s head coach Mario Cristobal’s specialty — Miami has all the pieces wanted to complete the job it practically accomplished in 2025.
— Manny Navarro
Why Texas?
That’s a fantastic query. Why Texas, certainly? I may have gone any of seven other ways with a national champion, and Oregon and Texas had been virtually a coin flip on the finish. The Longhorns appear to have probably the most high-ceiling distinction makers at a very powerful positions (Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Colin Simmons). The narrative round coach Steve Sarkisian is a little bit odd. He’s 35-8 over the previous three seasons with two CFP semifinal appearances. This is trying like Mack Brown 2.0. As with Brown, this system appears to be able the place if it simply retains doing what it’s doing, sooner or later it can break by.
— Ralph Russo
Why Indiana?
If the helmet had a blue-blood emblem as an alternative of the IU emblem, would the defending champs be down at preseason No. 6? Sure, Curt Cignetti and firm misplaced Heisman winner and No. 1 choose Fernando Mendoza, however additionally they elevated him into that place and may elevate TCU switch Josh Hoover, too. Both coordinators are again, and don’t overlook the opposite portal additions, like operating again Turbo Richard (Boston College) and receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State). This is a top-10 most-experienced team, with a number one 5 members of our preseason All-America groups. With a schedule that has Ohio State and USC at dwelling, avoids Oregon and has no nonconference menace, why not a repeat?
— Chris Vannini
Why Georgia?
Look, the SEC goes to finish its national championship drought finally, and I’m putting my religion within the convention’s most dependable energy to do it. The protection improved as final season progressed and needs to be even higher. Gunner Stockton is a gamer who has stepped up in some huge moments. I do know there are questions at receiver, however the run recreation ought to enhance as nicely. And I feel the Bulldogs may have higher postseason luck after having to begin their backup within the Sugar Bowl two seasons in the past and falling sufferer to an unbelievable Trinidad Chambliss efficiency final season.
— Antonio Morales
Why Texas A&M?
The Aggies couldn’t outrun the paper tiger allegations on the finish of 2025, with performances towards Texas and Miami that appeared to reply the “Is Marcel Reed actually a good quarterback?” debate within the detrimental as soon as and for all. Not so quick, I say. With Rueben Owens II shouldering a lead again load and one other rock-solid Mike Elko protection, A&M has the stability and expertise to face up to the randomness of match soccer, shedding a lifetime of gut-punches within the course of to win its first national title since 1939.
— Eric Single
Who will lose within the national title recreation?
Oregon has lengthy been a simple reply when making an attempt to choose the following first-time national champion after Florida did it in 1996. Then Indiana got here out of nowhere to win its first soccer title final fall.
The Ducks got here shut with national championship losses in 2010 and 2014 and have earned their “best program without a title” standing. Five of our employees voters do like Oregon to lastly win, however a whopping 13 predict the Ducks to get to Las Vegas and lose once more.
Notre Dame vs. Oregon is our most typical national championship matchup, with six of these 9 calling for an Irish win. An All-Big Ten conflict between Ohio State and Oregon is the one different championship matchup with greater than two votes.
National title recreation matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
Notre Dame vs. Oregon | 9 |
Ohio State vs. Oregon | 3 |
Oregon vs. Texas | 2 |
Georgia vs. Oregon | 2 |
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State | 2 |
Georgia vs. Notre Dame | 2 |
Notre Dame vs. Texas | 2 |
Miami vs. Texas | 2 |
Georgia vs. Ohio State | 2 |
Oregon vs. Texas A&M | 1 |
Miami vs. Notre Dame | 1 |
Indiana vs. Notre Dame | 1 |
Indiana vs. Oregon | 1 |
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma | 1 |
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Predicting the Heisman race earlier than the season is notoriously difficult.
It’s the second 12 months in a row that Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith tops our August record. He ended up ending sixth within the precise Heisman race final season, two spots behind his quarterback, Julian Sayin. But Smith is No. 1 in our top 100 players list, No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List and No. 1 on Dane Brugler’s NFL Draft board. The No. 1 recruit within the Class of 2025, he has 163 catches for 2,558 yards and 27 touchdowns in simply two seasons.
The Heisman usually goes to one of the best quarterback, not essentially one of the best total participant, however Smith holds the slight edge in a wide-ranging vote wherein 10 gamers acquired a nod.
The different 5 gamers who bought not less than two votes are quarterbacks: Oregon’s Dante Moore, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Texas’ Arch Manning, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Miami’s Darian Mensah, who had been 5 of the eight Tier 1 quarterbacks in our July ranking of all 138 projected starters. Another Tier 1 QB, LSU’s Sam Leavitt, bought one vote, as did Tier 2 headliner Jayden Maiava from USC and rising star sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele from Cal.
Who will win the Power 4 convention championships?
ACC
| Team | Staff | Readers | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
71.0% | 70.4% | 57.4% | |
12.9% | 5.6% | 13.2% | |
9.7% | 5.2% | 7.9% | |
3.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | |
3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% |
Miami completed because the national runner-up final 12 months, however because of losses to Louisville and SMU and a convoluted five-way tiebreaker that despatched Duke to Charlotte, the Hurricanes nonetheless haven’t gained the ACC since becoming a member of the league in 2004.
The Hurricanes are the overwhelming favourite to lastly accomplish that this season, irrespective of who you ask. Though they’re rebuilding each traces, they’ve a superb offensive core led by Duke switch Mensah, Fletcher and Toney.
SMU is the consensus second selection, adopted by Louisville. Beyond that, votes and odds are in every single place.
Big 12
| Team | Staff | Readers | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
51.6% | 39.6% | 55.0% | |
32.3% | 35.4% | 11.5% | |
6.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | |
6.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | |
3.2% | 3.6% | 7.0% |
Backed by huge roster funding, Texas Tech gained its first Big 12 championship final season, en path to a Playoff bid and the primary AP top-10 end in program historical past. The Red Raiders enter 2026 ranked within the prime 10 regardless of the Brendan Sorsby saga that can lead to them turning again to Will Hammond at quarterback, and they’re the consensus favourite to win the league — over BYU, once more.
Our readers are far more cut up on the matter, with BYU lower than 5 proportion factors behind Texas Tech. Nobody else reaches double digits, irrespective of who you ask.
Big Ten
| Team | Staff | Readers | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
58.1% | 34.3% | 22.4% | |
22.6% | 44.9% | 36.3% | |
19.4% | 12.9% | 23.5% |
Though Penn State, USC and Washington acquired Playoff bid votes from our employees, it’s a three-horse race for the Big Ten title. Only Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana acquired votes from our employees, with Oregon the favourite. The mannequin and readers choose Ohio State, which hasn’t really gained the Big Ten since 2020.
An attention-grabbing discrepancy: Oregon acquired probably the most national championship votes from our readers, however Ohio State is their Big Ten title choose. Of course, Ohio State confirmed in 2024 {that a} group doesn’t must win the Big Ten to go on a national title run.
SEC
| Team | Staff | Readers | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
48.4% | 35.2% | 19.6% | |
35.5% | 40.2% | 28.3% | |
9.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | |
3.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | |
3.2% | 2.4% | 7.3% | |
0.0% | 4.3% | 11.0% | |
0.0% | 3.9% | 8.6% |
As the SEC strikes to a nine-game convention schedule, predictions are centered round Texas (favored by our employees) and Georgia (favored by the mannequin and readers). Beyond that, it’s vast open: Ole Miss is third amongst our employees, with Alabama third within the mannequin and LSU third within the reader vote.
Seven groups have not less than a 5 p.c likelihood to win the SEC, in accordance with Mock’s model; no different Power 4 convention has greater than three groups above 5 p.c in these simulations.
Who will make the College Football Playoff?
We assembled the groups with the very best CFP vote shares into our consensus bracket, ordering them by common seed:
Nine groups bought not less than half of the employees’s vote to make the Playoff: Notre Dame and Oregon had been the one unanimous picks, as Ohio State fell one vote brief. Georgia, Texas, Miami and Indiana joined Ohio State in showing on greater than 90 p.c of ballots. Big 12 heavyweights Texas Tech and BYU had been above 50 p.c, whereas Oklahoma edged a pair of SEC rivals, Texas A&M and LSU, for the ultimate at-large spot. Boise State topped UNLV as the favourite for the Group of 6’s computerized bid.
Thirty-four groups acquired not less than one vote to earn a Playoff bid from our 31 employees voters:
Staff CFP picks
| Team | Staff votes | Model |
|---|---|---|
100.0% | 67.0% | |
100.0% | 76.3% | |
96.8% | 70.7% | |
93.5% | 65.1% | |
90.3% | 70.8% | |
90.3% | 68.5% | |
90.3% | 49.9% | |
64.5% | 71.6% | |
58.1% | 21.9% | |
48.4% | 27.4% | |
38.7% | 19.8% | |
38.7% | 26.3% | |
38.7% | 24.2% | |
35.5% | 6.8% | |
32.3% | 5.7% | |
25.8% | 29.3% | |
22.6% | 22.1% | |
22.6% | 29.3% | |
22.6% | 36.0% | |
12.9% | 10.9% | |
9.7% | 13.9% | |
9.7% | 10.7% | |
6.5% | 9.9% | |
6.5% | 8.2% | |
6.5% | 16.9% | |
6.5% | 4.4% | |
6.5% | 2.2% | |
6.5% | 11.0% | |
3.2% | 6.9% | |
3.2% | 15.9% | |
3.2% | 7.4% | |
3.2% | 7.4% | |
3.2% | 1.2% | |
3.2% | 11.9% |
Boise State and UNLV are the favorites amongst our employees from the Group of 6 (Navy leads Mock’s mannequin’s CFP hopefuls at simply 10.7 p.c), and six different G6 groups acquired a vote. Though two Group of 6 groups — James Madison and Tulane — made the CFP final 12 months, that’s develop into a lot much less probably now that every one Power 4 champions are assured spots. A second Group of 6 group would want to complete within the prime 12 to have an opportunity.
The groups with one of the best odds in Mock’s mannequin that acquired zero CFP votes from our employees? Michigan (21.2%), Tennessee (15.9%), Auburn (14.3%), Iowa (12.2%) and South Carolina (11.9%).
Bold predictions and scorching takes
Lastly, we requested our 31 panelists to submit their bold predictions for the season. Here’s what they got here up with:
Bruce Feldman: Miami receiver Malachi Toney will develop into the primary FBS participant to notch touchdowns dashing, receiving, passing and on a return in the identical recreation.
Mark Cooper: Cal wins double-digit video games within the common season and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele wins the Heisman, however the Golden Bears lose to Miami within the ACC title recreation and are omitted of the Playoff for a remaining SEC group, with the committee leaning on energy of schedule.
Eric Single: After the ACC modified its tiebreakers expressly to cut back the probabilities this occurs, overwhelming favourite Miami will miss the ACC championship recreation on account of a tiebreaker anyway.
Daniel Shirley: Miami is not going to win the ACC.
Austin Mock: Syracuse will contend for a berth within the ACC championship recreation.
Ira Gorawara: James Franklin takes Virginia Tech to the ACC championship.
Grace Raynor: Billy Napier will get James Madison again within the Playoff.
Joe Rexrode: Indiana will miss the Playoff — an upset loss to Washington will clinch it, however that gained’t be as beautiful as the sooner stumble at Nebraska (with Ohio State accounting for the third loss). Curt Cignetti is elite, however so was Fernando Mendoza, and that’s merely not IU’s quarterback state of affairs in 2026.
Mitch Sherman: Cignetti will lose thrice as many regular-season video games in his third season at Indiana as he did in his first two seasons mixed. That’s three losses.
Scott Dochterman: Michigan will battle to make a bowl recreation. Although the Wolverines are gifted, a troublesome schedule will pressure them from the Big Ten title hunt earlier than Halloween. Michigan’s first 5 Power 4 opponents all have the potential to win not less than 9 video games, and that’s earlier than it performs at Oregon and Ohio State in November.
Sam Khan: Michigan QB Bryce Underwood will silence all of the offseason critics and, with the assistance of recent offensive coordinator Jason Beck higher using his complete ability set, may have a breakout 12 months, sufficient to be thought-about one of many sport’s 10 greatest quarterback’s by season’s finish.
Matthew Ho: Texas misses the Playoff and Arch Manning enters the switch portal after a lackluster season as an alternative of coming into the NFL Draft. He heads to Florida underneath Jon Sumrall.
Matt Brown: Bill Belichick resigns after North Carolina loses at UConn on Nov. 7 to fall to 2-7.
Seth Emerson: Only one SEC head teaching job opens — Tennessee, the place Josh Heupel beats the posse out of city by taking an open job.
Matt Baker: Four head coaches had been fired final September. This September has 5.
Mitch Light: UCLA heads into the regular-season finale with a 9-2 file and is favored on the highway towards USC. Nico Iamaleava earns second-team All-Big Ten honors, behind Dante Moore however forward of Julian Sayin, Josh Hoover and Jayden Maiava.
Jason Kirk: Lincoln Riley doesn’t must play rival Notre Dame, however his final recreation at USC can be a loss to rival UCLA.
Pete Sampson: USC misses the College Football Playoff and fires Lincoln Riley, changing him with Kalen DeBoer, who ushers in a brand new period of USC soccer the place the Trojans return to national prominence and start competing for national titles.
Chris Kamrani: USC will make the CFP.
Cameron Teague Robinson: Alabama loses 4 video games, misses the Playoff, fires DeBoer and tries all the pieces to get Cignetti from Indiana, solely to be rejected.
Austin Green: Alabama will lose 4 of its remaining six SEC video games and miss the Playoff. Ohio State and Oklahoma barely make the Playoff as three-loss groups, edging out fellow three-loss groups USC and Washington and prompting one other spherical of CFP enlargement shouts from the Big Ten. The Buckeyes then pull off a first-round upset of Georgia underneath the lights in Athens.
Austin Meek: The greatest group in Texas gained’t be Texas or Texas A&M.
Antonio Morales: Texas misses the Playoff once more after spending a ton of cash on its roster.
Kate Hairopoulos: Obviously, with Indiana because the reigning national champion, something is feasible in faculty soccer. That contains Texas A&M ending a long time of championship deficiency, and the Aggies do it throughout a season wherein Texas was presupposed to be again on prime, capping a run to the SEC title recreation with a win over the Longhorns on Black Friday.
Stewart Mandel: Two 9-3 groups from the Big Ten and/or SEC make the Playoff.
Manny Navarro: Ole Miss thumps LSU and goes on to win the SEC with an 11-2 file. The Tigers miss the Playoff regardless of ending 9-3 in Lane Kiffin’s first season.
Justin Williams: Ole Miss loses to LSU in Kiffin’s return to Oxford, however the Rebels rebound to win the SEC and LSU misses the Playoff.
Jill Thaw: Clemson will spoil Kiffin’s LSU debut. Both groups find yourself lacking the Playoff, and this recreation is the lightning rod for each. The fallout: Multiple Power 4 conferences scratch big-time nonconference matchups to keep away from this taking place to them, and the CFP expands to not less than 24 in response. The losers, in fact, are CFB followers.
Chris Vannini: A serious CFB program declares it can refuse to do any sponsorship jersey patch and stadium discipline emblem as a result of that house needs to be sacred and ad-free, and the group will get donations from unaffiliated followers in assist of the transfer.
David Ubben: A former SEC soccer coach declares a 2028 presidential run with a platform centered round “saving college sports.”
Ralph Russo: Upsets in each the ACC and Big 12 title video games create CFP bid-stealers that squeeze out not less than one SEC group (Georgia) that will have in any other case made the sphere by way of rating, serving to to interrupt the SEC’s resistance to the Big Ten’s desired enlargement to a 24-team format. The conferences conform to make the transition in 2028.