Patience or Panic: Kyle Manzardo, Kyle Stowers, Jorge Soler

Welcome to Week 18 of our Patience or Panic sequence!

Kyle Manzardo1B, Cleveland Guardians

Last season, it appeared just like the Cleveland Guardians obtained Kyle Manzardo in a sweetheart deal. The Guardians acquired Manzardo from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023 straight-up for Aaron Civale. Civale was shipped off to the Brewers in July of 2024 after a disastrous stint in Tampa Bay. Manzardo, alternatively, raked. He posted a .945 OPS with 20 residence runs in Triple-A in 2024 and was set for an everyday MLB function in 2025.

That 2025 function got here for Manzardo and noticed an excellent return: A .234/.313/.455 slash, 27 residence runs, 19 doubles, 70 RBIs, a .768 OPS and 113 wRC+. The then-24-year-old solidified himself as Cleveland’s long-term reply at first with loads of upside nonetheless forward of him. He had energy to develop into, bat-to-ball talents to search out, and a BB% to be pleased with. Cleveland’s shot name labored in spades.

At least it did then. 2026 has seen little return on Cleveland’s preliminary funding. Through 95 video games, Manzardo’s hit .209/.298/.358 with simply 11 residence runs, 32 RBIs, a .656 OPS, and an 88 wRC+. Somehow, these numbers appear nice compared to Manzardo’s final month of play. Over his last 22 games, he’s hitting .134/.205/.254 with a .459 OPS. In reality, Manzardo’s .429 July OPS is second-worst in all of baseballtrailing solely Colt Emerson‘s .373 mark. He’s no one’s sweetheart proper now. The why is comprehensible. The how? Not a lot.

Finding that how calls for a concession. Manzardo is, as he is at all times been, a power-first form of hitter. He hit properly within the minors, sure, however his .544 slug over 4 seasons was the attraction. As was his 27 residence runs a season in the past. He’ll by no means hit for excellent common. He needn’t. So lengthy as he is driving the ball far and deep, and it would not have to occur at elite charges. Because if Manzardo goes to recapture Cleveland’s hearts, it is going to be by longballs and barrels.

Sadly, Manzardo is not having a lot luck in that division. His HR% has dropped from 5.1% to three.3% in 2026. He’s not doing the primary. Nor is he doing the second, with a Barrel% in comparable decline. Nor is he trying out in different areas. Manzardo ranks 125th out of 147 qualified hitters this season in slugging percentage. In ISO, he ranks 97th. While an enchancment, it nonetheless has him almost within the again third of all gamers. Instead of going deep, he is placing out, seeing his Ok% rise from 25.4% to 31.7%. The latter now ranks Manzardo within the seventh percentile of all gamers.

There’s not one trigger at work right here. Manzardo’s struck out 52 instances on fastballs, 37 instances on breaking balls, and 16 instances on offspeed. Like a lothario, he is prone to every little thing. And whereas he can console himself with a .261 common on all fastballs, he cannot in different departments. Against breakers, he is hitting .159. Against offspeed pitches, he is hitting .132. This is the place common does matter, even for a man like Manzardo. See, he can survive a .234 common as long as he is making simply sufficient contact. But when he is hardly doing something in any respect on something?

In specific, he is being torn aside by sliders and changeups. Manzardo is without doubt one of the worst hitters towards the previous. His .122 common is seventh-worst in baseballhis 48.8 Whiff% is sixthand his 41.7 Ok% is 13th. He’s close to defenseless. While he fares a bit of higher towards changeups, hitting .135, he has no juice towards them, with a .135 slug. Manzardo, as compared, is at the least touting a .268 slug on all sliders. He can do one thing to them. He cannot do and hasn’t carried out something towards changeups.

All of that is troubling. The lack of energy, the rising strikeouts, the shortcoming to do something towards two-thirds of all pitches. Is this all unexpected? Somewhat. Manzardo might hit sliders final season. This is a brand new pattern, whereas his lack of contact on the entire might’ve been predicted provided that Manzardo had .224 xBA final season, and a .196 xBA the season earlier than that. Nothing right here precisely warms the guts.

One potential trigger for that’s Manzardo’s launch angle. In 2025, I’ve completed within the 76th percentile in LA Sweet-Spot%. He might join in the precise spot typically sufficient, though not as a lot as anybody would love. This 12 months, Manzardo’s within the forty fourth percentile. He’s not the place he must be along with his bat. Two of a thousand issues might have one thing to do with that: Bat pace and stance modifications.

Manzardo’s off only a hair in every. His bat pace is down from 70.6 MPH to 69.8 MPH. The latter now has him within the seventeenth percentile. And as for his stance, Manzardo’s sitting a contact deeper within the field and has opened up his swing a bit extra. As a potential end result, he is intercepting pitches 11.7 inches in entrance of the plate reasonably than intercepting them eventually 12 months’s 10.9. He’s slower and sometimes early to the ball.

The Verdict: It’s ugly. Manzardo has the proverbial face solely few can love. But in the event you do, purchase. Manzardo’s inventory won’t ever be decrease. Yet he is 26, carries a powerful pedigree, and nonetheless performs for some of the competent organizations in baseball. If anybody might repair him, it is Cleveland.

Kyle StowersOF, Miami Marlins

Kyle Stowers and Kyle Manzardo have much more in frequent than you’d assume. Both named Kyle, each traded from their authentic analytics-focused group to a different, each obtained off to sturdy begins with their new golf equipment, and each are actually the topic of our central query. Move apart Danny Devito and Arnold Schwarzenegger. These are the Twins.

That stated, they are not brotherly. Where Manzardo performed solidly in his rookie marketing campaign, Stowers performed out of his thoughts. In 117 video games, Stowers hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 residence runs, 73 RBIs, a .912 OPS and a 149 wRC+. Stowers was a much-deserved All-Star. And for added context, that .912 OPS would’ve ranked because the fourth-best within the NL final season had Stowers sufficient ABs to qualify. He was cruising his enemies, seeing them pushed earlier than him, and listening to the lamentation of their followers.

Nowadays, although, Stowers hears solely the lamentation of his personal followers. Through 80 video games, the 28-year-old is hitting .234/.315/.441 with a .756 OPS and a 100 wRC+. He’s nonetheless hitting tanks, tallying 12 homers on the season, and gathering clutch hits, with 44 RBIs, however he isn’t the All-Star, nor the destroyer he was a season in the past.

To some extent, that makes this simple. There’s no have to panic about Stowers. He’s nonetheless good. He’s taking part in effective, sturdy baseball. He hasn’t been changed in Miami’s hierarchy. And not like his fellow Kyle, he can considerably default his woes to a proper hamstring pressure that sidelined him till April. The level is, Stowers is not any true lie.

His superior information speaks to this doubly so. Stowers is within the 86th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the 69th in Barrel%, the 97th in Hard-Hit%, and the 86th in Bat Speed. He’s elite the place it counts. In that approach, he carries shades of Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles earlier this season. All the information suggests higher fortune than what’s adopted truly. All he must do is keep the course… form of.

For as a lot as there’s to love about Stowers, there are some issues that may’t be erased like some unhealthy Martian reminiscence.

Arguably the most important is a contradiction. For as a lot as some information helps Stowers, others detest him. For occasion, Stowers’s anticipated numbers are far, far worse than they have been a 12 months in the past. Then, Stowers sat within the 94th and ninety fifth percentile in xwOBA and xSLG and the seventy fifth in xBA. It reaffirmed what he noticed. This season, it doubts what we wish to imagine. Stowers is within the forty fifth and 56th percentile in xwOBA and xSLG. Likewise, he is within the twenty second percentile in xBA. This can’t be ignored.

Nor can another woes. Stowers is placing out at an absurd charge, sporting a 32.6 Ok%. That’s fourth-highest in baseballtrailing solely Spencer Torkelson, Jorge Solerand one other Kyle, Kyle Schwarber. And one among these names will not be just like the others. The solely cause this is not a career-worst is because of his earlier struggles. In 2023 and 2024, he had a 36.4 Ok% and a 35.4 Ok%. He reined in his free swinging final season. Now, it is unfastened.

Here, Stowers and Manzard pair up once more. Because like his fellow Kyle, Stowers is prey to nearly every little thing. He has a Ok% of at the least 30% on six of eight pitches: Four-seam fastballs, sliders, changeups, curveballs, sweepers, and splitters. He has a Whiff% of at the least 30% on seven of eight pitches seen, swinging by cutters however hardly ever for strike three. Regardless, nearly each pitch facilities three purple dots on his brow and blows him away.

That is, properly, a problem. As is the truth that cutters are the one pitch Stowers is persistently hitting. Yet he is seeing the pitch 7.5%. The remainder of the time he is languishing towards every little thing else. Seriously. Stowers is hitting .223 towards fastballs, .205 towards sliders, .233 towards changeups, .222 towards sinkers, .240 towards curveballs, and .150 towards sweepers.

All of this calls one thing into query. Stowers is usually a good hitter. He is one proper now. But can he be an ideal hitter? Can he persistently management his bat and be the all-around participant he was earlier than? Or has that Stowers been terminated and left a swing-happy, power-and-little-else copy as an alternative?

The Verdict: Get on board now or in no way. Stowers will possible do one among two issues: take off or keep precisely the place he’s. If you need in, get in. If not, then see you, child.

Jorge SolerD.H., Los Angeles Angels

Jorge Soler has some of the memorable residence runs in latest World Series historical past. Let’s take you again. It’s 2021. Atlanta is in Houston, and only one win away from lifting the championship. There are two on, two outs, and Soler’s in a 2-2 depend. Astros pitcher Luis Garcia drops a looping ball into the zone, and Soler sends it to the solar. He leans again, drops his bat, and faucets his chest because the ball goes 446 ft and almost clears the prepare tracks.

This one hit lives in immortality. Partly for its aura, and partly as a result of it’s statistically a very powerful play in your entire 2021 World Series. So a lot in order that Soler wins World Series MVP.

It’s from these heights that Soler’s disappeared. In the years since, he is bounced from Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta once more, the place he raked, after which to Los Angeles. Through two seasons with the Halos, Soler’s performed simply 163 video games and hit .208 with a .667 OPS. He’s gone from immortal to irrelevant.

Rumors counsel Soler may very well be on the transfer on the upcoming commerce deadline. And ought to he be moved, he may get one other crack at a championship and one thing better than himself. But does he have something left within the tank? Is there sufficient in his now 34-year-old bat to make historical past as soon as extra?

The numbers say no. That’s nothing. Frankly, they’re arduous to argue with. Soler is hitting .202/.288/.374 with simply 12 residence runs, a .662 OPS, and an 82 wRC+. That OPS ranks 132nd out of 155 playersand that wRC+ ranks 134th. His -0.7 fWAR is 145th. There is a authentic case to be made is the least worthwhile participant in baseball. He cannot defend. He has no pace. He can’t hit and hasn’t in a while. What have I carried out?

A wealthy man wants it, a poor man has it, and Soler’s worth is that this. What is it? Nothing.

There aren’t any anticipated numbers to help him. He will not be producing worth along with his eye. Almost each superior metric would not favor him. Oh, and he is placing and whiffing out nearly greater than anybody.

All that stated, there are a couple of strands to cling to. Soler’s Barrel% is powerful, standing within the 73rd percentile. His HardHit% is weaker, however nonetheless above common and within the 62nd percentile. His LA Sweet-Spot% is at its highest mark since 2023, as well. And, perhaps most significantly, Soler’s bat can nonetheless catch up. Despite his age and lack of basic means, he ranks within the 84th percentile.

Put all this collectively. Above-average barrel numbers, simply above-average HardHit% and LA Sweet-Spot%, and flirting with elite bat pace. For some groups, that alongside along with his previous pedigree is likely to be sufficient.

The Verdict: If the phrase “caveat emptor” have been personified, it’d look loads like Soler. This goes to groups actual and imagined.